Today's number is... 16

My sentiment composite hits a fresh 16-month high. 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents my sentiment composite, which includes six different sentiment data points: AAII Bull Bear Spread, II Bull Bear Spread, NAAIM, CBOE Volatility Index, Equity Put Call Ratio 5-Day, and Put Call Ratio 10-Day.

The Takeaway: We are currently seeing more bears than bulls enter the market, as my sentiment composite has reached a new 16-month high. It's remarkable how price action can influence sentiment. Just six months ago, we were experiencing optimism, but now the environment for investors has turned much more pessimistic.

While I acknowledge that this sentiment composite is not perfect, it does provide a useful perspective on what investors are thinking at the moment. 

The way I use sentiment is to determine whether it acts as a potential tailwind...

Last week, we pointed out how Consumer Staples – a classic defensive sector – had surged in response to the market selloff. That’s typical behavior during periods of volatility, and we noted that it would actually be a constructive sign if that strength didn’t hold.

Well… it didn’t.

With that behind us, the question shifts from will we bounce? to how far can this bounce go?

One sector we're watching closely for clues is Financials ($XLF). It broke down hard – and now it's coming back to retest all that broken support.

This is a crucial moment.

Historically, after sharp corrections like the one we just saw, markets tend to move sideways for months. They need time to digest the move.

If we’re going to ignore that playbook and rip straight back to all-time highs, it would be… unusual.

More likely? We’re at a logical level for sellers to step in, put a lid on this rally in financials, and drag us into that choppy, frustrating range we’ve come to expect after major market resets.

As of the time I'm writing this (1pm MT), the VIX has been trading back below 30:

While this doesn't mean the coast is clear and the bull market is set to resume, it does signal the extreme fear that exploded last week has subsided as market participants have had time to digest all the headlines and manage risks.

In today's Flow Show, I flew solo and I laid out the latest on the put spread selling campaign I've been executing in $QQQ options since last Wednesday.

I discuss why I implemented the campaign, how it's going so far, and what the next steps are in managing these trades now that $VIX is back below 30:

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

Welp, there it is. The dreaded "Death Cross."

I'm mostly just teasing.

I was asked in the All Star Options chat room this afternoon what I thought about this? My answer was that I don't put much stock in an indicator like this. In my selective memory, I feel like I've seen ominous headlines about "death crosses" in the past and they most amounted to much ado about nothing, ultimately.

But again, this might be selective memory.

Here's what's changing my mind... my guy Grant Hawkridge published an interesting piece about this topic today. In it, he says:

"Some people may place limited emphasis on the Death Cross pattern because it is often considered a lagging indicator. However, historical data suggests that if the short-term moving average remains below the long-term moving average, it could pose challenges for stocks moving forward.

I have done the math, and the results are bearish for the stock market…

On average, the S&P 500 has poor performance over the next 1 to 3 months. 

Is this the kind of environment where we want to invest our capital? The impact on stocks in the near future...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New Position in ITB (US Home Construction).
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed XLY at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

A "tell" is an observable, consistent, unwitting behavior in reaction to a known stimulus. Which is a fancy way of stating something you already understand intuitively. 

Examples: You try on a new, hot outfit to model for your partner. You twirl before them, asking for an opinion. The love of your life looks you over squinches up their nose almost, but not quite imperceptibly. "You look amazing, babe" they offer with what is intended to be a sincere tone but is in the same tone they use to compliment your mom. This is the love of your life. The words mean nothing compared to the signals given off by the Tells of tone and expression. You change.

Example Two (The Point): Three stocks, all dominant in their respective corners of the consumer world, all beaten down mercilessly. All three had what should have been, could have been and in a better tape would have been bullish catalysts over the weekend.

Best Buy, Dicks and Nike are all down over 20% in the last 2 months. They are companies of varying quality in terms of execution but Supply Chain positioning but they dominate consumer segments which have been beaten like Government Mules over the ever-changing...

When there's market volatility, brokers and exchanges thrive.

And that's exactly what we're seeing right now.

Goldman Sachs $GS just reported their Q1 2025 results, and they were incredible.

Their equities segment grew to $4.19B, which is an astounding 27% year-over-year increase.

CEO David Solomon said in the conference call, "Clients are active and people are shifting positions." 

This is putting money in Goldman's pockets.

Let's talk about what else happened with Monday's earnings reactions.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Goldman Sachs $GS had the best earnings reaction and reported a double beat with a muted reaction score of 0.09. 

The company reported revenues of $15.06B, versus the $14.77B estimate, and earnings per share of $14.12, versus the $12.32 estimate. 

M&T Bank $MTB had the worst earnings reaction and reported a double miss with a reaction score of -0.79. 

The company reported revenues of $2.31B, versus the $2.34B estimate, and earnings per share of $3.32, versus the $3.40 estimate....

The standout story from today’s list is the buying spree by Rep. Jefferson Shreve of Indiana.

Rep. Shreve went big, snapping up a massive number of shares across several stocks.

Here's the breakdown:

• Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
• Blackrock $BLK
• Block Inc $XYZ
• Unitedhealth Group $UNH
• Wells Fargo & Co $WFC
• McDonald's Corp $MCD
• Newmont Corp $NEM
• Target Corp $TGT
• Goldman Sachs $GS
• Home Depot Inc $HD
• Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
• Broadcom Inc $AVGO
• Apple Inc $AAPL

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 14, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Liberty 77 Fund L.P. dropped $6.99 million for Lions Gate $LGF.A, the biggest single Form 4 buy of the day, indicating continued...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average $DIA has migrated to the top of the list in the aftermath of the recent market crash.

The Dow, like so many other key indexes, have held the retest of their 2021 highs.

This suggests a strong level of support, indicating that the worst of the correction is likely behind us. While the market often consolidates or moves sideways after such events, this appears to be a constructive bottom - one we can build on with cautious optimism.

Today's number is... 50%

More than 50% of stocks listed on the NYSE reached 52-week lows last week.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The red lines in the bottom panel show the percentage of NYSE stocks making 52-Week New Lows.

The Takeaway: The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows expanded to its fourth-highest level over the past 17 years.

That's expansion!

No two ways about it…

Last week, among the 2,862 stocks listed on the NYSE, 1,475 made new 52-week lows…

That's over half of the stocks that are listed on the NYSE exchange! 

These are not levels you see during a bull market.

Moving forward from here, the Bulls must first stop stocks from declining. They have been trying to put something together, but have yet to show any type of back-to-back follow-through just yet. 

Is there...

Gold Miners are ripping in 2025 as Gold futures continue to print fresh all-time highs.

Here's how the year has played out so far:

• The S&P 500 is down 8%
• Bitcoin is down 9%
• Bonds are flat
• Silver is up 12%
• Gold is up 22%
• And Gold Miners are up 47%

There has been a tremendous amount of dispersion in the returns.

Despite precious metals' clear leadership role this year, the short sellers have piled into the Gold miners.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended April 11th, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’...

Since volatility picked up in early March, I’ve found that shorter-term trades have really started to shine.

Take a look at this snapshot of my recent trades in All Star Options:

With only a couple of exceptions, nearly every trade I’ve put on lately has had no more than two months until expiration—and the majority are even shorter than that.

Why?

Because when the market starts acting like it’s had too much coffee and not enough sleep, long-dated trades become harder to trust. Shorter-duration setups, on the other hand, let me be nimble. I can lean into fast-moving setups, take my profits (or manage risk quickly), and move on.

And it’s working.

These quicker-turn trades have noticeably increased my win rate and put some much-needed green back into the account—right when the broader market has been having a bit of a meltdown.

A few things to note in the above screenshot:

The green rows are completed trades that hit profit targets or closed with gains.

The red ones, obviously, are stop-outs for losses.

The white rows are still open positions—but most are...

Since there seems to have been a bit of confusion about the $QQQ campaign that I embarked upon back on Wednesday, I'm creating a new post to help make new trades clearer for you all.

So far this AM, I've closed one of our put spreads at my profit target, and I'm adding a new one.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in TLT.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Another day of notable purchases spans restaurants, airlines, and biotech. Meanwhile, we have fresh 13D and 13G filings in packaged foods and more.

📌 Cracker Barrel $CBRL

Bay Resource Partners put $2.43 million into the iconic restaurant chain, as shares trade at lows not seen since 2009. 

📌 Delta Air Lines $DAL

Director David S. Taylor disclosed a $601,174 purchase, a solid endorsement of the airline amid ongoing industry volatility.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 11, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Viridian Therapeutics $VRDN

Commodore Capital LP filed a 13G revealing an increase in ownership from 3.03% to 5.30%. 

As the narratives regarding tariffs...

We just heard from some of the largest financial institutions in the world, like JPMorgan Chase & Co. $JPM, BlackRock $BLK, and Wells Fargo & Co. $WFC.

3 out of 5 reported double beats, and 2 reported mixed results.

The market rewarded 4 out of 5 for their reports, but 3 out of 5 had negative reaction scores.

Jamie Dimon, one of the most powerful and influential financiers in the world, said the following about the current macro environment:

"The economy is facing considerable turbulence, with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and 'trade wars,' ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits, and still rather high asset prices and volatility."

In other words, he's not bullish...

Let's talk about what else happened with these reports.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Fastenal $FAST had the best earnings reaction and reported mixed results with a reaction...