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The Strazza Letter

Beware of the V

April 24, 2025

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There is a real power to always staying open-minded.

We can’t be dogmatic with our approach or our positions on the market. It’s dangerous.

The data is always changing, and we need to be nimble and ready to change with it.

That brings me to the point I’ve been thinking about more than anything lately.

I think it is absolutely imperative that we remain open to the possibility of a v-bottom.

While there is plenty of data that suggests this is more likely to be a prolonged bottoming process… there is also a growing amount of evidence indicating we could rip right back to where we were.

I mean, it’s already happening overseas.

MSCI country indexes like Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan,...

All Star Options

[Options] Weekly Jam Session

April 24, 2025

If you missed it live, I reviewed the broad market setup and what the recent "follow-through day" is signaling, if anything.

There is now an increasing chance that the recent lows are going to hold for a meaningful amount of time. This does not mean that volatility is going to rapidly cool any time soon -- so we'll have to continue being tactical.

Additionally, we review three profitable exits and one trade that is really starting to shape up for us at the perfect time.

Check it out here:

 

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts

 
Macke's Retail Roundup

Earnings Report Cards for Hasbro, Chipotle and Pepsi

April 24, 2025

Getting our first look at consumer-facing outlooks now that we've gotten through the tedious Banks portion of earnings season.

Notable takeaways:

  • Hasbro was surprisingly good but it's not really "game on" until Q3 and Q4. Gets 50% of Toys and Games from China but has a reasonably flexible supply chain. Says earnings hit from tariffs will be $60 - $180 million hit to net earnings (LY net was only $385mm). Helped by digital focus. 
 
  • Pepsi seemed pretty resigned to consumers being too price-conscious to buy snacks. 
 
  • Chipotle has first negative comps since COVID. Said business fell off in late February and has continued worsening since. More people eating at home (but not buying Pepsi(?)). Fired shots at the entire outlook for QSR by insisting execution is great and the company is taking share.
 

 

 

All Star Charts Premium

Letter To The All Star Charts Community

April 24, 2025

I have big news to share! 

I’m thrilled to announce that earlier this year I was named Chief Market Strategist of All Star Charts Research. 

As many of you know, I have been the full-time Director of Research at All Star Charts for the past 5 years, and have run the entire analyst team during this period. 

JC Parets and I together assembled what has turned into one of the greatest teams of traders and analysts on Wall Street. 

This team has helped me deliver the daily research and put out all the great analysis and trade ideas that you see here today. 

Training our research analysts and watching them grow and develop over the years is one of the things I’m most proud of at ASC. These guys are absolute killers.

We have one of the most talented and deepest teams in the business, and with the support of guys like Alfonso, Sean, and Louis, I am confident that we’re...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 4/24/25

April 24, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLC position.
  3. Closed ITB at profit target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

What's More Bullish Than a Double Miss & Rally? 📊🚘

April 24, 2025

Tesla's latest earnings report delivered a double disappointment, with revenue and profits falling short of expectations. 

Revenue declined by 9% year-over-year to $19.3B, and operating income plummeted 66% to $400M. 

Automotive revenue dropped 21%, which caused the company to pull back on its 2025 growth forecast.

Despite these setbacks, Tesla's stock surged nearly 9% to an intraday high of $259.45. 

This rally was fueled by CEO Elon Musk's announcement to reduce his involvement with the White House's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and refocus on Tesla. 

Investors were also encouraged by updates on the company's progress in autonomous driving and robotics, including the upcoming launch of a robotaxi service and affordable vehicle models.

While the market remains cautious due to ongoing challenges like tariffs and brand perception issues, Musk's renewed commitment to Tesla and its innovation pipeline has boosted the stock price.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 ...
Hot Corner Insider

Media Mogul John Malone Buys More Atlanta Braves Stock

April 24, 2025

The largest insider buy of the day comes from none other than media mogul John Malone, who dropped $351,080 into Atlanta Braves Holdings $BATRA. 

Meanwhile, we had twin votes of confidence in Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI. 

Director Robert Stallings stepped in with a $289,215 purchase, while North Reef Capital filed a 13G, revealing an initial 5.60% stake. 

That’s conviction on two fronts.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 23, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

We also spotted activity at KeyCorp $KEY, where Chief Risk Officer Mohit Ramani scooped up $151,792 worth of stock.

Last but not least, Sen. David McCormick joined the crypto crowd, disclosing a buy of $115,000 to $250,000 in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB.

The Daily Number

Most stocks are in downtrends⤵️

April 24, 2025

Today's number is... 2022

The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500, S&P 400, and S&P 600 with their 50-day moving average above their 200-day moving average have declined to levels not seen since the 2022 market downturn.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
  • The blue line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than their 200-day moving average.
  • The gray line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 400 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than their 200-day moving average.
  • The red line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 600 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than their 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: When we look beneath the surface, it's evident that most stocks are in downtrends.

Only 38% of S&P 500 stocks are experiencing uptrends, while just 29%...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

All Eyes on the Pinch

April 23, 2025

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The market feels like a rollercoaster these days — volatile, messy, just trying to find its footing.

Headline-driven rallies and big swings in both directions is now the norm, and there’s no sign this will stop any time soon.

But things are getting interesting as major levels in the S&P 500 $SPY are coming back into play. 

The bulls came out this week. Let’s zoom in.

 

We’ve got the VWAP from the all-time highs and the VWAP from the April lows converging into a tight range. This is what our friend Brian Shannon calls a “VWAP pinch.”

This kind of compression often signals a buildup of...

All Star Charts Premium

Young Aristocrats (April 2025)

April 23, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By...

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (04-23-2025)

April 23, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

All Star Options

Green Shoots?

April 23, 2025

Yesterday’s strong gains across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow were hard to ignore. After nearly two weeks of chop and fear following the "Trump Pump" regarding the 90-day pause of tariffs, we finally saw a full day, broad-based rally with real thrust behind it.

While I would’ve preferred to see overwhelming volume — something that just blows the 50-day average out of the water — we did get a clear uptick in volume versus the previous day. And according to the framework laid out by William O’Neil and Investor’s Business Daily, that technically qualifies as a follow-through day.

So, what exactly is a follow-through day, and why does it matter?

William O’Neil, founder of IBD and author of the classic trading book How to Make Money in Stocks, coined the term to help identify potential market bottoms. The idea is that true, lasting bottoms are rarely identified by a single day’s bounce. Instead, the market needs a few days to digest the low — then show strength, in the form of a powerful rally on increased volume.

Here’s how IBD typically defines a follow-through day:

“A follow-through day is a...

Macke's Retail Roundup+

Monthly Town Hall - April 2024

April 23, 2025

Every month, I do a monthly Town Hall for my premium members at Macke's Retail Roundup+. This is meant to be a chance for my members to interact directly with me. I'll go over my portfolio, talk about my recent trades, and answer your questions. 

Watch the video and talk to me in chat below.

 

All Star Options

[Options Premium] If The Turn is Here...

April 23, 2025

Yesterday, we saw large gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Averages. While I would've preferred to see these big rallies come on overwhelming high volume that far exceeds the average, we did close on an increase in volume, which technically qualifies as a "follow-through day." 

While this isn't a guarantee that we've seen the bottom of recent price action, it does add some credence to the idea that the recent lows may be a little more durable and hold for a while.

If the market turn is here, then now would be a good time to take some fliers on previously high-flying names that took a dip with everything else in the recent morass.

Today's trade is that.