On Monday afternoon, with US stocks off 3% and dropping the President concluded a meeting with top executives from Walmart, Target and Home Depot. According to Axios, executives told Trump supply chains were in a state of disruption and "shelves will be empty". This wasn't a hypothetical risk of the burgeoning trade war but an actual business fact, happening today. 

Almost immediately, there were whispers of a shift in strategy on the trade war front. More importantly, to our immediate financial interests, stocks started coming off the lows.

As the White House has continued to offer more measured thoughts on trade of goods not critical to national security, the stocks hit hardest by the relentlessly negative drumbeat of news since Liberation Day started to rally. 

Dicks, Gap, Lululemon, seemingly half the stocks in the mall are up 10% since the lows Monday, with some of our favorites leading the way:

 AEO and Gap, two companies which have spent the last 5 years building supply chains all over the world only to see more or less everything shut down by Draconian fees that were constantly changing, are in the...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in XLE.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed XLB position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

We just heard from some of the world's largest aerospace and defense companies.

These giants posted strong quarters — revenues were solid, profits held up, and their backlogs are looking stronger than ever. Demand isn’t the problem at all. From commercial aviation to defense contracts, the pipeline is booming.

But there’s one big problem…

Tariffs.

New and escalating trade tensions are casting a long shadow. These companies are facing rising costs due to tariffs on key materials like aluminum, steel, and advanced components sourced from abroad. And Wall Street has noticed.

Despite solid fundamentals, the market reaction has been lukewarm — or even negative — because investors are worried about how these tariffs will eat into future margins.

So what else did we learn from their reports? Let’s dive into the details.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Equifax $EFX had the best reaction score and...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

The most significant insider filing comes via a 13G from Apollo Global Management.

Apollo revealed an initial 5.10% stake in XPLR Infrastructure $XIFR.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 22, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

We also saw an aggregate $100,217 buy at Neogen Corp $NEOG by multiple company directors. 

It’s not the largest number we’ve seen lately, but it’s always worth flagging when insiders move in a group.

Finally, Long Focus Capital Management filed a 13G for FTAI Infrastructure $FIP, disclosing a new 5.0% position.

Today's number is... 43

There have been 43 consecutive days in which the number of 52-week new lows on the NYSE and NASDAQ has exceeded the number of 52-week new highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red lines in the middle panel is the NYSE + NASDAQ 52-week new highs minus 52-week new lows.
• The red shading in the bottom panel shows the consecutive days NYSE + NASDAQ 52-week new lows > 52-week new highs.

The Takeaway:When this downtrend is ready to reverse, we will notice a sharp decline in new lows, followed by a gradual increase in new highs. 

The Bulls completed the first stage of finding a bottom. Stocks must first stop declining, as we have witnessed a collapse in new lows. However, we have not yet seen any meaningful movement in the second stage, which is the gradual expansion of new highs.

Over the past 43 days, it still remains that there are more...

Consumer Staples $XLP has found its way to the top of our sector list, with Utilities $XLU right behind. This type of action is standard when stock prices are falling, because these groups are the least volatile sectors.

As such, we would like to see these sectors stop outperforming for stock prices to start going higher again.

But as it looks right now, XLP just completed a massive breakout relative to the S&P 500. This is not good news.

If you're positioned for stock prices to go higher, in all likelihood, you need to see this ratio fail to hold this breakout and begin working lower again.

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The relative strength in Bitcoin over the past two months has been off the charts.

In a tough tape, I would’ve expected BTC to be the first to roll over and lead risk assets lower. 

But that didn’t happen. If anything, it held up better than ever. 

It’s the first time BTC has shown this kind of strength under any kind of selling pressure environment.

And now that the worst is behind us, Bitcoin is back into rally mode.

Today, price reclaimed the neckline from a major topping pattern, right around $90K.

That’s been the key level to watch for months.

I’ve been pounding the table on Brazil lately.

I can’t remember a time in my career when I thought about these stocks so much.

One of the first things I do every morning is check the BRL/USD pair and Bovespa.

That tells me all I need to know about how my Brazilian ADRs are trending. I’ve built positions in a number of them just recently.

Some are doing well, others like PBR and VALE, not so much.

But, here’s the thing. Investors are dumping their USD exposure and looking around the globe for new opportunities.

I think this has a lot less to do with trade war narratives and rumors, and a lot more to do with the fact that the US has dominated the investment world for a decade and a half.

America has been the only game in town for anyone looking to generate alpha. 

Of course, it couldn’t last forever. 

Stocks around the world are dirt cheap compared to the premium multiples found here.

For example, my two favorite Brazilian ADRs are trading at single-digit P/E multiples right now. 

...

We’ve been talking about this regime shift for months — the slow rotation out of dollar strength and into international stocks.

Today, the chart stopped whispering and started shouting.

The U.S. Dollar Index $DXY just broke a level it held for nearly two years. 

That floor caught every correction since 2023. Until now.

This isn’t just technical analysis. It’s storytelling in price form.
 
King Dollar isn’t king anymore. 

Money is moving. 

Out of safe havens. Into metals, emerging markets, and global equities.

The world isn’t betting on U.S. dominance. It’s betting on rotation. On sticky inflation. On global demand that doesn’t need permission from the Fed.

We’ve positioned for this:

• International markets over U.S. large cap.
...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in XLV.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Capitol Hill’s trading desk has been busy.

With the market moving and disclosure deadlines hitting, we’re seeing a wave of fresh filings — and some of them are worth paying attention to.

Let’s get into them.

Rep. Ashley Moody of Florida bought $100,000 to $250,000 worth of Nvidia Corp $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 21, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Meanwhile, Sen. Michael McCaul of Texas spread his bets across a handful of notable names.

Some of the standouts include:

• Netflix $NFLX ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Broadcom $AVGO ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Lennar Corp $LEN ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Estee Lauder Cos $EL ($15,001 - $50,000); and
• Microsoft Corporation $MSFT ($15,001 - $50,000).

Last but not least, Victory Capital Management filed a 13G for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings $KNX, disclosing a fresh 5.12% passive stake.

Today's number is... 52

The relative ratio of the S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector has reached a fresh 52-week low.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.

The Takeaway: In healthy bull markets, this ratio typically moves up and to the right on the chart. 

Right now it's moving lower! 

There’s no other way to put it—market participants are positioning themselves defensively… They are not seeking risk.

This defensive rotation has been steadily increasing since late January, and the current landscape is risk-off. 

This is perfectly normal behavior in a weak market.

Let me break down what I am seeing in the chart:

- The ratio has reached a new 52...

U.S. markets opened on a muted note following the long weekend.

Several major indices have slipped below their AVWAP anchored to the recent lows, suggesting a potential retest of those lows may be underway.

Momentum has faded since the brief post-tariff rally sparked by Trump’s announcement, but key support levels remain intact.

Notably, the U.S. indices found a floor at their 2021 highs—a level that continues to act as strong support. If that level breaks, we’ll reassess and adjust our positioning accordingly.

For now, though, it looks like we're entering a period of sideways chop.

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US equities remain under pressure as the major indexes break below key VWAPs anchored to their lows.

Meanwhile, critical polarity levels are serving as stiff resistance across key sectors and industry groups, capping last week’s bounce.

Whether it’s Semiconductors, Financials, or Software, buyers continue to struggle in reclaiming the broken support levels from earlier this month.

The SPDR Financial Sector $XLF is a textbook example of this theme. 

After briefly pushing back above the neckline of this top, XLF is now getting rejected right around 48.

That means an increasing supply is overwhelming the buyers near those prices.

Sellers are defending critical levels with...

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First of all, congrats to Goldman Sachs, now the largest component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The last time a bank headlined the Dow was JP Morgan back in 1998.

That’s pretty cool, but that’s all it is. Just a fun fact.

I would say it’s a sign of the times that a tech stock didn’t fill the shoes of UNH, but the Dow is a bit funky in the sense that it is price-weighted instead of cap-weighted.

Speaking of Papa Dow, let’s talk about what’s next for the major averages following the latest beating for US equities.

All the large-cap indexes violated their VWAPs anchored from the April 7 pivot lows this morning. They all tested these levels and held just last week. 

That’s been the line in the sand for me as far as a retest of the lows is concerned. 

With every day the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are below these VWAPs, the higher the likelihood we’re headed back to the lows...