Here's the replay and chartbook from the February 27 Weekly Strategy Session.

Be sure to join us on Thursdays at 11 am ET and maximize your return potential.

Wall St and Retailers adjusting to a random news flow world...

Remember the beginning of January? Retailers were pre-announcing strong Holiday sales and margins. Consumer Discretionary stocks were on a heater dating all the way back to pessimism lows last August. For every Kohl's or Target falling behind there were two or three Walmart's, Costcos, Victoria's Secret or Amazons; quality names near all-time highs based on nothing but old-fashioned execution.

It all seemed so rational. So fair. "Good news is being rewarded, everyone else is Target" we thought, "Surely nothing can stop us now"

Annnnnd that was the top. At least for now. As we wage into the Meat of retail earnings season next week a theme as emerged and it's sort of thorny. Companies are reporting strong results and guiding 2025 below estimates. Generally nothing disastrous. But words like "value conscious" and "promotional" are being used. 

We could let it slide a bit when Amazon said it. Amazon has a lot of spending to do. Same for Walmart. But we're only a couple weeks into these reports and we've heard variants on Beat and Guide Lower from, off the top of my head:

• Walmart...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling XRT to April Options.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

There were some sweet earnings reactions on Wednesday. It was a day for the bulls.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI filed an overdue earnings report. The market didn't care about the numbers. It was just happy to hear the company wasn't a complete fraud.

Then there was Intuit $INTU, which blew the market away with its earnings report. We're going to talk more about it later.

We also heard from NRG Energy $NRG, one of the leading "AI Utilities" benefiting from expanding data centers in the United States.

There's a lot to unpack.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Intuit $INTU had the best reaction score on Wednesday, and Keysight Technologies $KEYS had the worst.  

The stock with the largest market capitalization was Intuit $INTU, and the smallest was Caesars Entertainment $CZR.

There weren't any double misses, but a handful of companies reported mixed results. 

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about the most significant earnings reactions 👇

The biggest insider move today came from Amkor Technology $AMKR, where  director Susan Kim filed a Form 4 revealing a massive $19 million buy.

When an executive puts this kind of money on the line, it’s worth noting—this isn’t just a routine purchase, it’s a strong statement of confidence in the company’s future.

Meanwhile, Pinetree Capital Ltd filed a Form 4 stepping in with a $2.45 million purchase of TruBridge $TBRG.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 26, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Over in oil and gas, Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC grabbed $350,000 worth of Texas Pacific Land Corp $TPL.

Lastly, Pertento Partners LLP took a 5% stake in Netgear $NTGR via a 13G filing, signaling a strategic position in communication equipment.

Today's number is... -0.50

My Risk-On/Risk-Off indicator has declined sharply and is now at -0.50, firmly re-entering Risk-Off territory.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel is our custom indicator, which comprises 20 Intermarket ratios that pair various risk-on and risk-off assets.
  • Green is a bullish environment, and red is a bearish environment.

The Takeaway: This indicator has been fluctuating between Risk-On and Risk-Off modes for most of the year. However, over the past week, it has sharply declined and moved well and truly back into Risk-Off territory. This downward pressure indicates a change in the market environment, suggesting that the focus has shifted from opportunity to risk.

Moving forward, I will be monitoring to see if this recent weakness sticks around to determine if we experience further downside...

Nvidia just reported its third consecutive earnings report without a significant market reaction.

The stock didn’t do much when they reported back in August and November of last year. And it’s not doing much again today, trading down by less than 1% after-hours.

As for the technical outlook, nothing changes. Nvidia is still stuck in the same range it has been trading in since last summer.

JC and the guys did a live event to discuss the earnings numbers and the stock’s reaction after the bell today. You can rewatch it here.

We only hold these events when there is something big to discuss, and the truth about NVDA is that it is far and away the most important stock for the overall market.

And it’s less about anything specific to do with AI or Nvidia’s business, and more to do with the stock's massive weighting in the major averages and indexes.

Semiconductors are the most critically-important industry group in the market. If we lose the semis, and we lose NVDA...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLP.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XLB at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

When it comes to the US economy it is all about the consumer.

It's the best gauge of how things are going.

The Consumer Discretionary Index $XLY does a great job illustrating this theme. 

After breaking out of a nice base in December, prices are now pulling back to that breakout level, threatening to turn into a failed move.

This zone lines up with the prior cycle highs from 2021. 

If buyers are going to step in and show up, this is where it happens. Otherwise, things could get messy.

Bulls don’t want to see this offensive sector losing steam, especially at such a critical level. If buyers don’t step up here, it raises bigger questions about risk appetite and the broader market’s ability to sustain its momentum.

Jeff Macke knows consumers better than anyone.

He just dropped some serious...

Home Depot $HD, the home improvement retail behemoth, reported a double beat and rallied nearly 3%.

It was an excellent report, but our retail expert, Jeff Macke, has pointed out one big problem. The housing market sucks right now.

What stood out to him from the conference call was this: "The higher interest rate environment continues to pressure larger remodeling projects."

The management team also said, "Our customer is very healthy... as they stay in their houses longer, they will take on larger remodeling projects as opposed to moving [but not yet]."

There will come a time when we want to be super long the stock, but that's not today.

The bottom line is that HD is a great American company, and its shareholders have been fabulously rewarded. The stock is up over 1,000,000% since it went public in 1981.

It's one of the best stocks ever.

For now, though, there are too many headwinds against this stock. Until the...

The most notable insider activity today came from MSCI Inc $MSCI, where the Chairman and CEO Henry Fernandez stepped in with a massive $4,913,698 buy.

The CFO and a director of Wolverine World Wide $WWW just filed two Form 4s, revealing a combined $1 million of insider purchases.

When the CFO steps in, it’s especially notable. After all, CFOs have the clearest insight into company financials, growth prospects, and internal forecasts. If they’re buying, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 25, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Millennium Management LLC disclosed a 5.10% stake in TransAlta Corp $TAC via a 13G filing.

And President and CEO James Grech bought 6,684 shares  of Peabody Energy $BTU for a total purchase price of $104,010.

Today's number is... 3

The relative ratio of the Consumer Staples versus the S&P 500 has reached a new three-month high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Consumer Staples versus S&P 500 Index.
• The green and red lines in the bottom panel represent the 14-period daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the ratio above. When the line is green it indicates that the ratio is in a bullish regime, while when the line is red it signifies a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: When I’m looking for evidence that market participants are taking defensive positions, the ratio of Consumer Staples to the S&P 500 offers valuable insight.

And right now, I am seeing some of that defensive rotation.

The landscape for one of my favorite risk-on/risk-off ratios has changed considerably. Let me break it down! 

- It has broken out of a short-term bearish-to-...

Growth and large cap factors continue to lead in the green on the US indices table.

Importantly, many indexes have been rejected after testing their most recent highs.

While this isn't a cause for concern, it does suggest that the short-term trend has shifted sideways as many key ETFs are no longer in a period of price discovery.

In these sorts of environments we're always looking for leadership, and that's precisely what retail-expert Jeff Macke is doing. If you want to see his favorite retail stocks, you can get connected by clicking here.

I’ve been thinking a lot about if this could be the end…

On the Morning Show today we talked about whether the bull market for stocks could continue if we lost Bitcoin.

The answer is it definitely could. But, wouldn’t it be strange? 

Crypto and stocks have danced together for a long time.

However, I think it’s less about crypto and more about the overall risk appetite of the market. 

Bitcoin is just one part of it. When I think about risk on corners of the market and the kind of things that should be working during a healthy bull cycle I’m thinking of homebuilders, semiconductors, and banks… to name a few groups. 

But I’m also looking into the relationships between groups. In particular, I’m analyzing the performance of offensive stocks versus defensive stocks. The best ratio for this has always been discretionary vs staples.

XLY/XLP ranks second to none when it comes to the assessment of risk appetite.