Today's number is... 3

Let's check in on how the third year of this bull market is progressing.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The light blue line represents the performance of an average first year during a bull market for the S&P 500. The dark blue line illustrates the performance of the first year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.
• The light gray line indicates the performance of an average second year within a bull market for the S&P 500, while the dark gray line shows the performance of the second year of the current bull market.
• The light red line indicates the performance of an average third year during a bull market for the S&P 500, and the dark red line represents the performance of the third year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: Let's start by clarifying how I define a bull market: 

A bull market is a 20% or more rally preceded by a -20...

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a futuristic buzzword - it’s a transformative force reshaping industries worldwide. 

Companies are racing to integrate AI into their operations, but many lack the in-house expertise to do so effectively. 

AI consulting is a rapidly growing sector that helps businesses harness machine learning, automation, and data analytics.

As AI products and services become increasingly powerful, the demand for AI consultants to help implement them will only grow.

The mega trend in AI consulting has already caught the attention of investors as these stocks continue to outperform the broader market.

The bullish thesis is clear as day and easy to understand. It's perfect for a Beat Report deep dive.

As businesses across healthcare, finance, retail, and other sectors seek to adopt AI-driven solutions, consulting firms that effectively bridge the gap between cutting-edge technology and real-world applications are positioned for significant growth...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

It's hard to imagine what it is that these investors are all so bearish about.

I mean, we're in the middle of a bull market, where we know historically it pays way better own stocks than to be selling them. We know. We have the data.

And yet, accordingly to the latest AAII survey, more individual investors are bearish over the next 6 months than at any point since November of 2023.

Here's what stocks have done since then:

These are historic returns that have rarely been seen throughout stock market history. It's been practically straight up. 

The S&P500 is up almost 40%, while the Nasdaq100 is up over 45%. Financials and Communications are each up over 50%.Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology are also major leaders during this period.

You see, stocks don't go up or down in price based on "fundamentals". Prices move based on positioning. And when individual investors are all bullish, it's probably a good time to be selling.

More importantly, and definitely more actionable, is when individual investors are bearish. That's historically a great time to be buying very aggressively.

These are the...

Chinese stocks are on the move.

These Breakout Multiplier trades are all popping off one by one. 3 of them doubled today.

The Chinese Internet Index closed at its highest levels since mid-October, well before the Trump landslide victory (that was supposed to be the end of Chinese stocks).

It's actually been the exact opposite.

In fact, look Chinese Internet stocks relative to the U.S. Internet Index. The new lows could not hold, and now the face-ripper is here:

The rotation is real, and this is a perfectly normal characteristic of a bull market, which we are very much in.

There's a time and a place for everything. Buying China has not been a good idea for a long time. So it should be no surprise that the short interest in China is so high.

Those shorts have overstayed their welcome and now it's time for us to profit from their demise. The short squeeze you...

We bought some calls in EHang $EH yesterday.

They build autonomous flying cars in China. Some real-life Jetsons stuff.

We also bought some calls in PDD Holdings $PDD.

They are one of the Chinese online retail conglomerates, known in the US for temu.com.

Today, I sold half of both of my positions at double the price I paid yesterday.

Now, this does not mean I think these stocks will go lower from here. I think they’re going higher.

It’s just my rule. I follow it religiously. 

It keeps me in the game. It’s how I keep swinging.

When I sell a double I am effectively earning a risk-free shot at making big profits. No matter what happens, I can’t lose.

But, it’s bigger than that. It’s not about the half position left on the table.

It’s about getting liquid and doing it quickly.

It’s about getting my money back. 

In bull markets I don’t just have cash laying around. I’m invested. 

And in times like these, there are so many opportunities....

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I’ve been long China.

This is a bet against the crowd. Nobody trusts these companies or their numbers—honestly, I don’t either. But I don’t have to. 

I trust price.

And for months now, these stocks have been catching a relentless bid. That kind of price action tells me everything I need to know.

Investors are willing to take the risk, and as long as price keeps confirming it, I am too.

One big reason China is working—something no one’s really talking about—is the quiet rotation happening across emerging markets.

The Large-Cap China ETF $FXI recently scooped higher above a key support level relative to the Emerging Markets ETF...

Commodities are catching a serious bid right now.

Coffee futures have resolved a nearly 50-year base, printing fresh all-time highs.

Base and industrial metals keep screaming higher as the Chinese economy strengthens. 

This is all happening at a time when commodities are supposed to be strong.

As you can see, February has historically been an excellent month for owning commodities. The only better month is April, and the difference is marginal.

Will this be another strong February? We think so!

We told you we were buying fertilizer stocks a few weeks ago. ...

Today's trade is in a $104B company that provides cybersecurity solutions that is printing new all-time highs.

You know how I feel about all-time highs...

It's late on Friday. Let's get after it.

If you want to understand where commodity prices are headed, look at the yield curve.

Every major commodity bull market has been preceded by a steepening yield curve—every single one.

📈 When the yield curve bottoms and starts steepening, commodities follow.
 

Look at the last cycle:

• The commodity index bottomed when the yield curve hit its lowest point.
• When the yield curve flipped positive for the first time since 2022, commodities started trending higher.

It’s not magic—it’s liquidity and capital flows. When short-term rates fall relative to long-term rates, the market starts pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations, and commodities are the first to respond.

This is exactly why we’re positioned the way we are. Commodities don’t move in isolation—...

Amazon is selling off on weak guidance. After 30yrs you'd think we'd have learned

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XRT.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

We’ve got some notable insider transactions hitting the tape.

JetBlue Airways $JBLU Director Nik Mittal just went all in, snapping up 100,000 shares of JBLU.

After a brutal post-earnings drop on January 28, this insider move signals a strong bet on a turnaround.

With Mittal’s private equity background, he likely sees value the market is missing.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 6, 2025:

When the boss buys, it matters: Olin Corporation $OLN president and CEO just dropped $203,446 on company stock.

And Wellington Management just increased its Coterra Energy $CTRA stake from 9.67% to 11.10%.

Wellington is a heavyweight with a strong track record in energy. When a major firm increases its position, it signals confidence in future upside.

Thursday was a blood bath for most of the companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings.

It was a great day to be a bear... in most cases.

Stocks like Yum! Brands, Philip Morris, and Tapestry had their best (or 2nd best) earnings reactions ever. It's hard to be bearish when you see reactions like that.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

Yum! Brands $YUM was at the top of today's dashboard. The stock reported mixed results but rallied nearly 10% with a reaction score of 7.7. 

The Taco Bell Luxe Cravings Box, a value meal starting at $5, drove a 5% increase in same-store sales in the United States. It's hard to bet against tacos, amirite?

Philip Morris $PM beat expectations across the board and rallied 11% with a reaction score of 7. This was the stock's best earnings reaction ever. 

PM shipped over 40B units of heated-tobacco and oral smoke-free products in 2024 and this number is expected to continue growing.

Skyworks Solutions $SWKS beat its expectations but fell over 24% with a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

Today we're switching up our regular broadcasting and taking our ETF Power Rankings to the stocks of the Dow 30.

The beauty of these rankings is that they can applied to any universe of our choosing - today we're doing the Dow 30.

Here's where our sector universe stands right now.

The same sectors continue to lead, like discretionary, financials, communications, and industrials.

There's a wide selection of leadership, which broadly speaking is bullish for the market.

Today's number is... 250

The old saying is it's a market of stocks, not a stock market, and so far in 2025, we are seeing 250 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The dark blue bars represent the year-to-date returns of each S&P 500 stock.
• The light blue bar indicates the average year-to-date return of S&P 500 stocks.
• The yellow bar represents the S&P 500 index year-to-date return.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 index has increased by 3.45% this year, but currently, 250 stocks are outperforming it... That's half of the index components!

When we take a look at the year-to-date return data of the S&P 500 stocks, we can see that a total of 331 stocks have recorded positive returns so far this year, whereas only 172 stocks have experienced negative returns during the same period.

Given the recent increase in volatility, these figures actually reflect solid performance.

Although the new high breadth data isn'...

Gold has been an absolute monster since breaking out of that massive base last year.

Gold bugs can't complain—this is what they've been waiting on for years, and now they’re finally getting paid.

They’ve got the ball and are sprinting downfield with no one in sight.

This week, price ripped out of another tight consolidation to fresh all-time highs, just like it did last September. 

It’s the same playbook.

The bulls are running the show, momentum is screaming higher, and this secular uptrend is showing no signs of slowing down.

Yet no one's talking about it. That just makes me even more bullish.

I think we will see 3,350 this year.

Under this scenario, Silver and Copper could be next in line to follow…