Oracle $ORCL, one of this cycle's AI darlings, reported earnings on Monday after the market closed.

It didn't go well...

The company reported a 6% year-over-year revenue increase. This was led by an astonishing 51% increase in its infrastructure as a service segment revenue.

Despite this tremendous growth, the market has already priced it in, and the reported numbers weren't enough to appease investors.

In addition, they issued weaker-than-expected forward guidance. This was like adding fuel to a forest fire.

*click the image to enlarge it

Oracle reported a double miss for the 2nd consecutive quarter and was punished for it. Shares fell 3.10%, with a reaction score of -0.28.

Intra-day, the stock was down more than 7%. It was nasty!

The market has consistently been punishing the stock for its earnings reports. 7 of the last 11 earnings reports have resulted in lower share prices.

This company is doing something wrong...

If ORCL is below 146, the path of least resistance is lower for the foreseeable future...

Activity in Washington, D.C., tops today’s list.

📌 The standout insider move comes from MicroStrategy $MSTR, where Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida disclosed a purchase in an amount between $15,000 and $50,000.

With governments eyeing Bitcoin for strategic reserves, this could be a long-term play—regardless of the near-term chop in crypto.

This marks the second MSTR purchase we’ve seen by lawmakers in recent days. Rep. Jefferson Shreve of Indiana reported a MSTR purchase of $15,000 to $50,000 on March 10.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 11, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 New Fortress Energy $NFE CEO Wes Edens filed a Form 4 filing revealing a purchase of $1.75 million.

When top brass invests that heavily, it’s a sign of...

Today's number is... -2.3%

The average stock in the S&P 500 has dropped by -2.3% year-to-date.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: In just 14 trading days, the S&P 500 has declined by 9.31% from its all-time highs and is now down 5.26% year-to-date. Along with this correction, the average stock in the S&P 500 is currently showing a negative year-to-date return - which is down -2.3%.

Given the recent increase in market volatility, there are still pockets of strength, with 217 stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index with a positive return year-to-date.

However, most of these outperforming stocks come from sectors typically categorized as defensive. These defensive sectors are where money rotates into when stocks are under...

This table captures the longer-term drift in the relative performance of the U.S. sectors as markets accelerate their selloff.

You can see groups like Communications $XLC continue to show leadership, while Consumer Discretionary $XLY, which was on the top, has dramatically fallen in recent weeks.

We've been pointing to this breakout level in XLY; last week we said buyers should come in and defend this breakout.

Well, they failed, rather spectacularly...

It's not just Amazon $AMZN or Tesla $TSLA dragging this ETF lower, it's a sector-wide story right now.

The Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF $RSPD also failed to break above its prior cycle highs.

Retail stocks are undoubtedly being dragged lower because of this, but retail-expert Jeff Macke knows how to turn that weakness into an opportunity.

Tomorrow, Jeff’s breaking down which retail names are still worth buying — and which ones to stay far away from....

A couple of weeks ago, the analyst team and I put together what we called a “bearish checklist”.

We spent an hour breaking down what needs to happen for the bull market to end.

I’ve talked about a bunch of these key levels in recent posts.

From red flags in credit spreads to the Mag 7 violating a confluence of support, to fewer uptrends holding up beneath the surface.

But there is one more chart I need to share with you—Consumer Staples on a relative basis.

Staples are defensive by nature—they’re the go-to safety trade in equities, making them a great barometer for risk appetite.

And right now, they just reclaimed a critical level of support...

While U.S. equity investors are panicking, the Gold Bugs are riding powerful uptrends. It's a fantastic time to own shiny rocks.

Yesterday, we discussed the short interest in Silver hitting a record high. We think it's time for Gold's crazy cousin to shine.

In addition to that, we covered a variety of subjects in today's video, including: 

• The largest 4-week inflow into Gold on record
• Wild swings in the currency markets
• International stock markets
• Shiny rocks > stocks
• Seasonal sweet spot for Gold & Silver miners
• And what we're buying

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV and XRT positions.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

I don't know about you guys, but it seems like every trader I know now trades options these days. And more and more newbies in the markets are skipping trading stocks altogether and jumping right into the options ring. One look at the continuing explosion of options volumes on the main exchanges backs this up.

It wasn't always this way. 

For much of my early career, options trading was the "complicated" backwater of investing, reserved mostly for investors selling covered calls on their long-term holdings to derive some extra income in their portfolios.

Everyone’s an Options Trader Now—In Markets and in Life

Options trading has exploded in popularity. It seems like everyone, from Wall Street veterans to TikTok influencers, is placing bets on calls and puts. But this obsession with optionality isn’t just happening in the markets—it’s everywhere. Across industries and careers, people are structuring their decisions like options traders, seeking asymmetric rewards, hedging risks, and keeping multiple paths open.

This phenomenon raises an interesting question: Are people trading more options because they think like traders, or are...

I've got some good news, some not so good news, and some outright bad news.

Let's dive in.

First of all, these are all concepts that were discussed at length on our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session last week, so check out the full video here.

As an update, here's the most bullish thing happening in stocks right now. Both Germany and Hong Kong closed the week at new highs. These are new 3-year highs for the Hang Seng and new all-time highs for the DAX:

If there was some sort of Global Crisis or Credit Event of any kind, my bet is NOT that these two major indexes would be breaking out to new highs.

These are not safe havens where investors can hide out and wait for the storm to pass. It's quite the opposite actually.

So strength out of these areas above points to bullish and healthy...

In this messy market environment we're experiencing, it's difficult to find stocks trending higher.

Many have left the United States altogether to search for gains abroad. 

One group of stocks that continues to display relative strength is precious metals stocks.

What's driving this trend? Gold futures resolved a multi-decade base and made new all-time highs a year ago.

The returns have been fabulous since then, and we think they're about to accelerate to the upside.

As you can see, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX is flirting with the resolution of a textbook accumulation pattern and new multi-decade highs.

This fund holds a market-capitalization-weighted basket of gold stocks. Names like Agnico Eagles Mines $AEM, Newmont $NEM, and Franco-Nevada $FNV comprise the top 5 holdings.

It's a great way to get exposure to the mining industry.

Now, let's talk about one of our favorite stocks in this ETF, which...

We have an assortment of noteworthy buys from directors and investment firms as well as C-level executives and members of Congress to report today.

📌 TKO Group Holdings $TKO

Director Jonathan Kraft takes the spotlight with a $3.53 million buy. That’s a big-ticket commitment to an entertainment powerhouse – definitely one to watch if you’re keeping tabs on momentum turning in that stock.

📌 Janux Therapeutics $JANX

RA Capital isn’t done with biotech. The investment firm filed a fresh 13D reporting an increase in its $JANX stake from 17.55% to 19.90% in JANX. Large, concentrated bets like this in the Biotech space often hint at major conviction in a pipeline or upcoming catalyst.

📌 Blend Labs $BLND

Director Brian Sheth scooped up $1.96 million in shares, continuing a recent string of insider buys in the software/app space....

The Animal Spirits have turned savage on Wall Street as stocks post their worst day in years. Time to take personal inventory and make a shopping list.

I started running money in 1997, straight out of graduate school. Underfunded and overconfident but with the magnificent good fortune to be working in San Francisco during the original Internet Bubble. It's been a journey. A deeply weird and eventful journey.

My career was almost killed in the crib by LTCM and ripple effects from the Thai Baht, a currency I haven't bothered to think about before or since. I survived the Dot.com bubble and crash, the GFC and a downgrade of US debt. Five years ago this week then-President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency. Six days later California became the first state to issue Stay-at-Home orders and the country was on its way to shutting down almost-but-not-quite everything for 18 months. 

Let me tell you something, "What happens if every public space closes?" was a hard Headwind to price into your spreadsheet. February and March were tough for Consumer Discretionary and pretty much everything else:

There's a certain smell and vibe to...

Today's number is... 5,667

The Bears have made a significant move, pushing the S&P 500 below the key level of 5,667, which is the highs from July 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel is the Momentum Regime (Daily RSI).
  • In a bullish regime, the RSI often exceeds 70 during rallies and finds support around 35-40 during corrections. In a bearish regime, it drops below 30 during sell-offs and doesn't reach overbought levels in counter-trend rallies.

The Takeaway: Over the past few months, I've been sharing my bull market checklist, emphasizing the importance of the 5,667 level in the S&P 500 for the bullish trend. However, after yesterday's trading, the bears have pushed the S&P 500 below this key level. 

Not only was this price level breached, but the S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day moving average, and the momentum shifted to a bearish regime...

Large Cap Growth $IWF has stepped down on the rankings as Large Cap Value $IWD has climbed to the top.

Clearly, equity markets have sold off rather aggressively in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 $SPY has made new lows and is now retesting the final level in the sand at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. If the S&P 500 loses 560, the risk in owning equities over longer time periods significantly rises.

The area that's been hit the hardest has been crypto. The average token is now in its second 60% drawdown of the last 12 months. And the majors are not fairing much better. 

The bottom line, according to Strazza, is the two best crypto vehicles are currently sporting all the classic characteristics of fresh downtrends. 

See how he's playing these downtrends in this conversation with JC Parets. ...

The S&P 500 (United States) has fallen into red territory in our global rankings. This marks a notable development, as under our relative strength ranking America is now in the bottom half of the world in terms of market strength.

The chart below documents the ranking of the United States over the last three months and how it's now in red territory.

The trend favoring the United States has been a persistent one over the last 15 years, and has been marked by continued (and failed) calls of its demise.

But with global stocks nearing a historic breakout, we could be seeing the beginning stages of broadening market leadership outside the United States.

Crypto is getting smoked.

The average token is now in its second >60% drawdown of the last 12 months.

It's been a tough environment to be a crypto investor.

And while Bitcoin's not in quite a pronounced drawdown, it has completed a monster top and is trading in the middle of no man's land.

The trend in crypto is down.

The bottom line is that crypto is currently sporting all the classic characteristics of a fresh downtrend.

If you want to see how we're playing these downtrends, check out this conversation between Steve Strazza and JC Parets by clicking here.

The tape has flipped.

Uptrends aren’t holding, leaders are rolling over, US equities are getting smoked and crypto is leading the way down.

Bitcoin has completed a top and is sliding toward the low $70Ks.

The trend is down and there’s nothing to do from the long side.

For Solana, $120 is the line in the sand.

Below that, it’s game over.

The same is true for Ethereum breaching below $2,100.

The path of least resistance is clearly lower.

I’m taking about two of the most important cryptocurrencies in the world completing massive tops.