It's hard to imagine what it is that these investors are all so bearish about.
I mean, we're in the middle of a bull market, where we know historically it pays way better own stocks than to be selling them. We know. We have the data.
And yet, accordingly to the latest AAII survey, more individual investors are bearish over the next 6 months than at any point since November of 2023.
Here's what stocks have done since then:
These are historic returns that have rarely been seen throughout stock market history. It's been practically straight up.
The S&P500 is up almost 40%, while the Nasdaq100 is up over 45%. Financials and Communications are each up over 50%.Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology are also major leaders during this period.
You see, stocks don't go up or down in price based on "fundamentals". Prices move based on positioning. And when individual investors are all bullish, it's probably a good time to be selling.
More importantly, and definitely more actionable, is when individual investors are bearish. That's historically a great time to be buying very aggressively.
These Breakout Multiplier trades are all popping off one by one. 3 of them doubled today.
The Chinese Internet Index closed at its highest levels since mid-October, well before the Trump landslide victory (that was supposed to be the end of Chinese stocks).
It's actually been the exact opposite.
In fact, look Chinese Internet stocks relative to the U.S. Internet Index. The new lows could not hold, and now the face-ripper is here:
The rotation is real, and this is a perfectly normal characteristic of a bull market, which we are very much in.
There's a time and a place for everything. Buying China has not been a good idea for a long time. So it should be no surprise that the short interest in China is so high.
Those shorts have overstayed their welcome and now it's time for us to profit from their demise. The short squeeze you...
This is all happening at a time when commodities are supposed to be strong.
February is one of the best months of the year for commodities:
As you can see, February has historically been an excellent month for owning commodities. The only better month is April, and the difference is marginal.
Will this be another strong February? We think so!
If you want to understand where commodity prices are headed, look at the yield curve.
Every major commodity bull market has been preceded by a steepening yield curve—every single one.
📈 When the yield curve bottoms and starts steepening, commodities follow.
Look at the last cycle:
The commodity index bottomed when the yield curve hit its lowest point.
When the yield curve flipped positive for the first time since 2022, commodities started trending higher.
It’s not magic—it’s liquidity and capital flows. When short-term rates fall relative to long-term rates, the market starts pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations, and commodities are the first to respond.
This is exactly why we’re positioned the way we are. Commodities don’t move in isolation—...
Thursday was a blood bath for most of the companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings.
It was a great day to be a bear... in most cases.
Stocks like Yum! Brands, Philip Morris, and Tapestry had their best (or 2nd best) earnings reactions ever. It's hard to be bearish when you see reactions like that.
Let's talk about what else happened 👇
Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500:
*click the image to enlarge it
Yum! Brands $YUM was at the top of today's dashboard. The stock reported mixed results but rallied nearly 10% with a reaction score of 7.7.
The Taco Bell Luxe Cravings Box, a value meal starting at $5, drove a 5% increase in same-store sales in the United States. It's hard to bet against tacos, amirite?
Philip Morris $PM beat expectations across the board and rallied 11% with a reaction score of 7. This was the stock's best earnings reaction ever.
PM shipped over 40B units of heated-tobacco and oral smoke-free products in 2024 and this number is expected to continue growing.
Skyworks Solutions $SWKS beat its expectations but fell over 24% with a...
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
*Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.
The old saying is it's a market of stocks, not a stock market, and so far in 2025, we are seeing 250 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The dark blue bars represent the year-to-date returns of each S&P 500 stock.
The light blue bar indicates the average year-to-date return of S&P 500 stocks.
The yellow bar represents the S&P 500 index year-to-date return.
The Takeaway: The S&P 500 index has increased by 3.45% this year, but currently, 250 stocks are outperforming it... That's half of the index components!
When we take a look at the year-to-date return data of the S&P 500 stocks, we can see that a total of 331 stocks have recorded positive returns so far this year, whereas only 172 stocks have experienced negative returns during the same period.
Given the recent increase in volatility, these figures actually reflect solid performance.
Every now and then I come across a chart that I feel the need to send over to our friends at the CMT association.
The curriculum covers all sorts of pattern recognition and analysis. While things don’t always work out the way the textbook teaches… sometimes, they do. And it’s just so lovely to see.
It’s happening now with the recent action in Bank OZK. Both of these flag pattern breakouts are picture perfect.
Let’s use this chart as an example to discuss the classic continuation pattern.
Price was coiling in a bear flag coming into the year.
The only difference between the first flag and the second flag is the trend that preceded them. When the trend that leads into the coil is down, it is a bear flag. When it is up, like it is now, it is a bull flag.
Another difference between the two formations is the way that they resolved. The bear flag resolution is actually considered a failed pattern as it resolved in the opposite direction of the downtrend that preceded it.
Failed patterns are some of the best patterns though. As...
This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.If you're not a member, sign up here.
Speculative themes have been the best trades on the tape for the past six months.
We’ve been tracking American eVTOL stocks for a few months, noting the aggressive primary trend reversals in many of the names in the space.
With China shaping up, one stock we’ve kept on our radar is EHang $EH.
One of our scans picked up an unusual volume splash today in the March 21 $21 strike calls. And we love the chart, so we’re in:
With volatility compressed and with volume and momentum coming into EH in a big way, we want to make the bet this base resolves higher.
A trade like EH has the potential to become a multibagger.
Not only would a quick pop get us a double, but it would also complete this multi-year basing pattern which could...