Today's number is... -0.2%

As we near the end of the first quarter of 2025, the average stock in the S&P 500 has a negative return of -0.2% year to date.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

Each row in the table represents the average stock within each S&P 500 sector. The first column shows the average year-to-date percentage. The second column reflects the average percentage relative to the 50-day moving average. The third column indicates the average percentage relative to the 200-day moving average. The fourth column displays the average percentage from the 52-week high, while the fifth column shows the average percentage from the all-time high.

The Takeaway: The average stock within the S&P 500 index has dropped by -0.2% year-to-date. Among the sectors, the average energy stock is performing well, showing an increase of 7.2%. In contrast, the average technology stock is struggling, down by -5.1% year-to-date.

Overall market leadership has become increasingly narrower in Q1 of 2025. 

In a healthy bull market, stocks typically...

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After a sharp 10% drawdown, the S&P 500 is attempting a bounce—but let's be real, it's not looking too strong.

The magnitude of this bounce is crucial for determining whether buyers can regain control or if we're just dealing with a temporary retracement.

Typically, retracements fall between the 38% and 62% levels of the original move.

Case in point, SPY just tagged the 38.2% retracement level and immediately got rejected.

The VWAP from the all-time high is sitting right at that same level, acting as a brick wall for buyers.

If the bulls want to regain control, they need to clear the 38% line at 575. Until then, this bounce looks weak, and lower levels remain in play.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

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We are going to add some short exposure and have our eyes on small caps.

Rather than buy some Russell 2000 puts, we’re going to hit the two largest industry groups that comprise the index.

So we’re buying puts on biotechs and banks via XBI and KRE.

If these trades work, they should work quickly. If these are valid tops, then we will know soon. I think this is the perfect level to get short for both of them.

First up is KRE:

We’re looking at a tactical top and a series of lower highs and lower lows since last fall. 

This is exactly where we want to fade the banks.

Here's the replay and chartbook from the March 27 Weekly Strategy Session.

Be sure to join us on Thursdays at 11 am ET and maximize your return potential.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV position.
3. Exited XLP for a Profit.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

When the tape is messy and a CEO puts their own cash on the line, it’s always worth paying extra attention. 

📌That’s exactly what happened at Immunome Inc $IMNM, where President and CEO Clay Siegall bought 137,100 shares, equivalent to $1.2 million.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 26, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌In another Form 4, Sylebra Capital disclosed a $11.23 million buy in Aeva Technologies $AEVA —by far the largest transaction today.

📌Deep Track Capital filed a 13G for Immunovant Inc $IMVT revealing a initial stake of 5.59%.

The end of the Q1 2025 earnings season is approaching.

Tonight is the last big report. Lululemon $LULU is scheduled to report earnings after the close today, and we're expecting fireworks. Its Q4 2024 earnings reactions (~+16%) was one of the best ever.

The market is expecting the company to report revenues of $3.58B and earnings per share of $5.85.

As we're writing this, the stock is trading at its high of the day (~+3%).

Stay tuned...

For now, let's talk about the earnings reactions from Wednesday.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Cintas $CTAS had the best earnings reaction. They reported revenues of $2.61B versus the $2.60 estimate and earnings per share of $1.13 versus the $1.06 estimate.

Paychex $PAYX had the 2nd-best earnings reaction. They reported in-line revenues and earnings per share of $1.49 versus the $1.48 estimate.

Finally, Dollar Tree $DLTR also had a positive earnings reaction. They reported revenues of $5B versus the $8.24 estimate and earnings per share of $2.29 versus the $2.20 estimate. 

Now, let's dive into...

Today's number is... 20

Today marks the 20th day this year that the S&P 500 has seen a daily change of +/- 1%.

Here is the table listing the years with 20 or more +/- 1% daily changes in the first quarter:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column displays the years when the S&P 500 saw 20 or more daily changes of +/- 1%. The second column indicates the total count of these daily changes in the first quarter. The third column represents the return for each year. At the bottom, there is a statistical table.

The Takeaway: Volatility often results in significant market movements in either direction. Historically, these large daily fluctuations tend to cluster together during periods of market weakness.

We have done the math, and the stock market generally tends to perform better when the environment is quiet: When the S&P 500 moves less than 1%, and strong: When the stock market has 52-week new highs that are greater than new lows. Right now, the environment is noisy: The S&P 500 is moving...

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I’m going to keep zigging while everyone else is zagging.

US equities aren’t even close to out of the woods. 

The bulls were just out here flexing about two green candles. Are you kidding me?

The truth is, this has been a bush league bounce. 

I took some shots, but most of them did not work. So, I’m raising more cash today and loading into some short exposure. This is the most I’ve had all cycle.

Let the non-disciplined buy this dip. There is simply no reason to rush in right now. Until the major averages reclaim their key levels, the bears are firmly in control.

I’m more...

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U.S. equities are running into a major confluence of resistance after a weak rebound in recent days.

Until buyers step up and show some serious follow-through, sellers are likely to remain in control.

When looking at the most crucial risk-on groups, two sectors are approaching a resolution that could set the tone for the weeks and months ahead.

First, Large-Cap Technology relative to the S&P 500 is teetering just above the lower bounds of a two-year topping formation.

With Tech representing roughly 30% of the S&P, a breakdown here wouldn't just be a sector-specific issue—it could have broader implications for the entire market.

Adding to the concern, Home Construction $ITB, a critical...

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

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U.S. equities are facing a key confluence of resistance, putting buyers to the test.

Earlier this month, we bet on Homebuilders holding their ground within a potential topping pattern, but the bulls couldn’t get it done.

We already sold the double on our PHM calls, and now we want to take a shot at this group from the short side.

So, let’s flip the script and see if the bears can get it done now. 

This is a massive distribution pattern. If it completes...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

Every month, I do a monthly Town Hall for my premium members at Macke's Retail Roundup+. This is meant to be a chance for my members to interact directly with me. I'll go over my portfolio, talk about my recent trades, and answer your questions. 

Watch the video and talk to me in chat below.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

McCormick & Company $MKC reported earnings on Tuesday.

This is the company that has grown into the leader in all things related to flavor. Their products include Frank's RedHot, Cholula, and much more. 

It's basically impossible to have a kitchen without a McCormick label.

The stock has been a leader in the Consumer Staples sector and has rallied after its last 5 earnings reports. This is one of the longest beat streaks in the S&P 500.

Following the release of its report, the stock opened 5% lower but rallied throughout the day to close nearly flat for the session. It was an epic comeback for the bulls!

What initially spooked the market?

It was all about the guidance. 

The market was expecting the company to announce an upward revision of its forward guidance. Instead, they maintained the current guidance.

Let's talk about what else happened.

*Click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, McCormick reported a double miss. Their revenue was in line, but the EPS number came in 4 cents below the estimate.

There is a significant...

Darlington Partners made a splash with two big software plays.

📌 The money manager filed an initial 13G disclosure for OneStream Inc $OS revealing a 5.30% stake.

📌 In another 13G, Darlington reported a 5.20% position in Shift4 Payments Inc $FOUR.

The firm’s moves signal fresh institutional interest in the software space and underscore its strong commitment to both companies.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 25, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Meanwhile, the CEOs of F&G Annuities & Life $FG and Prospect Capital $PSEC reinforced their confidence with insider purchases of $706,724 and $204,917, respectively.

📌 Last but not least, Broadwood Partners filed a Form 4 for Staar Surgical Co $STAA, purchasing 136,696 shares.