Today's number is... 42nd

The 10-week moving average of the S&P 500 has fallen below the 40-week moving average for the 42nd time since 1950.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
• The blue line is the 10-week moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The red line is the 40-week moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray lines highlight when the 10-week moving average crosses below the 40-week moving average - Also known as a Death Cross.
• The table showcases the forward returns of the S&P 500 following a Death Cross.

The Takeaway: The trend is your friend until it bends, and the S&P 500 has been in an uptrend for the past 115 weeks.

But that changed last week when the S&P 500 experienced a Death Cross, which adds to the evidence in favor of Bears.

But what exactly is a Death Cross?

A Death Cross is a technical indicator that occurs when a short-term moving...

The prevailing theme on the international front has been the rotation taking place out of the United States and into a wider set of global markets.

We've seen significantly elevated volatility, and there's now a strong case to be made that the worse is behind us. Many key U.S. indexes have retested their 2021 highs and have firmly held.

Now the question has become - will international still outperform if risk markets recover from here?

A key chart to watch on this front is Europe $VGK versus the United States $VOO.

When this black line is going up, it means that Europe is outperforming the U.S. (as has been the case for a few months).

Right now, the ratio is at a key inflection point. If we see this ratio take out its most recent lows, it would indicate that money is rotating back into the United States.

The ratio will be a key chart to watch when understanding the leadership of the next bullish phase.

I have some personal news to share with you.

This announcement is 15 years in the making. And I’m grateful to all of you that I’m able to make it. 

Ladies and gentlemen, 2024 was my last year as Chief Market Strategist at All Star Charts Research.

Many of you were with me when I started writing a blog from my apartment in New York City in 2010. I was 28 years old then – just a kid trying to figure it out.

You were with me too when we turned the blog into a research company. We’ve added some of the top technicians in the game today to our team.

And All Star Charts is now one of the greatest technical analysis research companies in the history of the stock market.

I’m really proud of what we’ve built together. The team that I’ve assembled has helped me make decisions about what I do with my money for many years.

So I’m equally proud to share that Steve Strazza – my right-hand man and the Director of Research for the last five years – was named Chief Market Strategist at Allstarcharts earlier this year.

Steve has played an instrumental role in our success at All Star Charts. No single person on Earth is more qualified to take...

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

• In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
• In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...

What's this "reaction score" we're always talking about?

It's how we statistically measure how significant an earnings reaction was.

We've tried many different methods, but this is the best way. Trust us, we've done the work...

In this post, we want to teach you how to calculate the reaction score on TradingView.

You can save this as a template in TradingView, so you only need to set it up once.

First, add the rate of change indicator with the length set to 1 and base it on the closing price.

Next, right-click on the ROC indicator (we use the default TradingView indicator) and select Add Indicator/Strategy on ROC.

From there, search for the Z-Score script (we use the script from jwammo12), make the length 252 periods, and calculate based on 1 standard deviation.

Here's what it should look like:

Now that we have the template, we can calculate the reaction score for any stock.

Here's how we do it...

In a spreadsheet, we take the z-score from the S&P 500 and subtract the stock...

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Markets are back in rally mode, and crypto always gives us a good hint as to where things are headed coming into the new week.

Bitcoin, Solana, and friends had a good Saturday session and even repaired some tactical trend damage.

We’ve been discussing various areas of relative strength on our special live streams since last week.

Crypto has been one of them, and the best tokens continue to hold and bounce off key levels.

In fact, I think the potential failed top setups in Ripple and Solana are as good as anything out there right now.

I’m long both for a swing trade and maybe more. We’ll see how things go.

Here is Solana $SOL:

After quickly breaching 120, which has acted as support a good ten times in the past year, SOL just jumped back above this key level and confirmed a bullish...

Don't miss the ASC Premium Monthly Strategy Session on Monday, April 14th, at 8 pm ET! 🚨

👉 Click here to register for the LIVE event.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Amid historic market volatility, we're looking for uncorrelated trades.

Whether that's Crude Oil, Lumber, or Orange Juice.

Trading commodities doesn't just offer lucrative risk versus reward opportunities, but it also has a very low correlation to other asset classes.

For example, Orange Juice was in a steady uptrend from 2020 until the end of 2024. 

It didn't care about the bear market in 2022. 

And it certainly doesn't care about the bear market in 2025.

This was the best week for the juice since 1998, and we think it has the potential to rally more for the foreseeable future.

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

My universe, the land of the consumer, has taken center stage. The eye of the storm, if you will. The center of the volcano. The hottest part of the mantle. 

And every tariff headline sends the market swinging. Last week, it was down. This week...down, then up, then down. We're stuck in a tariff circle of hell. 

So what does this mean for the portfolio? And what am I doing about it? I broke it all down in this week's video.

Watch the video below.

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

We’re finally putting on some calls to play the coming rebound rally.

We weren’t about to buy into the upside volatility on Wednesday, and wanted to give the market time for some backing and filling following the historic session.

I think one day is all it needed, though. It’s a fast market. 

Thursday offered the ideal exit liquidity for anyone who wanted it. Now, it’s back to rally mode. 

And where better to go than the single-best US growth stock of the entire cycle…

Here’s Palantir $PLTR:

We are buying the $PLTR 5/2 $100 calls for approximately $2.10 - $2.35 per...

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to GLD position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

While global markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks, precious metals have remained a notable area of strength.

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) has just broken out of a major base and is now trading at its highest levels in over 12 years.

If equity markets continue to stabilize, this resilient group could remain a key area of leadership.

As long as $GDX holds above 45, the path of least resistance remains higher.

There's so much happening right now in the markets.

It often seems like there isn't enough time for a bathroom break...

That could be an exaggeration, but it's directionally accurate. ;)

This is why our director of research, Steve Strazza, has been going LIVE every day after the market opens.

He's pulling back the curtain and showing how a successful trader navigates in this market environment.

These videos are so insightful...

You can catch the replay of yesterday's video where he went through his current shopping list (there's so much alpha here).

Keep an eye on the Stock Market TV website to avoid missing the next event.

Now, let's talk about what's happening with this earnings season.

*Click the image to enlarge it

Constellation Brands $STZ reported a double beat with a reaction score of 7.65. The market loved it...

The company reported...

Insider activity was fairly quiet overall, but a significant buy at Nike Inc $NKE dwarves the day’s other transactions.

📌 The most notable insider activity from yesterday’s filings came from the boardroom of Nike $NKE, where Director Bob Swan disclosed a $502,756 purchase.

📌Chairman Mitchell Jacobson filed a Form 4 revealing a $11.1 million purchase in MSC Industrial Direct Co $MSM.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 9, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Last but not least, NexPoint Residential Trust $NXRT CFO Paul Richards stepped in with a $193,275 open-market purchase—always a signal worth tracking when it comes from the chief financial officer.

Today's number is... 0.09

The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index has risen above the zero line, increasing to 0.09.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green/red line represents the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. When the line is green, it indicates that financial market stress is lower than normal. Conversely, when the line is red, it indicates that financial market stress is higher than normal.
• The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index measures financial stress in markets and is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This index is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads, and five other indicators. Each of these components provides insights into different aspects of financial stress.

The Takeaway: Here is another data point for the bears…

The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index has reached its highest level of market stress...

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My tactical outlook hasn’t changed just because we gave a little back today. 

Wednesday marked one of the largest single-session rallies in market history, and I think it has legs. 

We’re coming off extreme oversold levels with sentiment in washout territory. 

A monster bounce is just around the corner. 

So I’ve been digging through all of our scans over the last few days. Some new, some old. Looking for the best long opportunities. 

They are all different and cover a variety of universes. International stocks, US growth stocks, sector and industry ETFs, commodity stocks, etc. We have something for everything. 

The scans are all similar in a sense that they look to highlight some form of relative strength, momentum, or a combination of the two. 

I’m...