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Monitoring a Buy Signal for TLT

April 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasury futures are breaking out.

The 30-, 10-, and 5-year contracts are trading above our risk levels. And the bond ETFs we covered a couple of weeks ago are also flashing buy signals.

The bond market is sending a well-advertised message to all investors…

It’s time to buy bonds.

Let's review one of the most liquid treasury ETFs, $TLT.

Zooming out on the weekly chart of the Treasury bond ETF TLT… 

We have a potential failed breakdown below the former 2014 lows, followed by a tight, multi-month consolidation.

[Options] Getting Exposed to Healthcare

April 5, 2023

We kicked around a few ideas in this morning's Analyst meeting and the one thing that stood out to me is that I do not currently have any long exposure to the healthcare sector --- one of the strongest sectors out there.

That changes today.

We're going to get long a familiar name in the space, but we're going to do it carefully with a defined risk spread because we've got earnings coming up soon. So we'll go for a longer-duration trade and bet on earnings to be a catalyst for higher prices.

"Only 5-10 stocks are holding up this market"

April 5, 2023

Have you heard the latest?

They're telling us that only 5-10 stocks are holding up this market.

How dumb do they think we are?

Go look for yourself.

I count well over 100 stocks that are over $10B market cap with returns greater than 20% just in 2023 alone. These are NYSE and Nasdaq stocks.

Half of those are up over 30%.

And many more are up over 40%.

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Will EM Currencies Rip as the Dollar Dips?

April 4, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is dropping – and our bearish USD trade ideas are beginning to trigger.

While I tend to stick to major developed-market (DM) currencies for placing trades, I still monitor the less liquid forex pairs for information. 

I want to see DM currency strength spill over into emerging-market (EM) currencies, confirming the broadening US dollar weakness. 

As always, I strive to break it down to one level, one chart, whenever possible. 

This next chart does the job…

Here’s the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Fund ETF $CEW:

Collaborative Profits

April 4, 2023

Strazza and I have been having fun discussing options stuff on Twitter Spaces over the past few weeks. Even our friend Brian Lund (@bclund) has been contributing mightily to the conversations.

The topic of discussion has mostly centered around 0-DTE – or daily expiring – options and some experimentation I’ve been doing in this very active corner of the options market. While I will continue to talk about that, we decided we want to broaden out the topic material to include anything else we’re seeing that we can trade with options.

We’ll discuss trades we have on, trades we might be considering entering or anything else that feels topical in the world of options.

During the calls, we like to encourage audience participation. One piece of feedback I’ve heard from a few of you is that you don’t know how to actually participate. “Where’s the button to raise my hand?”

It would be weird

April 4, 2023

Asset prices trend.

We know this.

We all have the data.

Just because some (most) investors choose to ignore it, doesn't mean that moves in stock prices are random.

They're not.

Stock prices trend.

It's just math. Or science maybe. Or both, I don't know.

But they do trend. This we know is a fact.

And since last June, the majority of stocks have been appreciating in price. And very few stocks have been falling in price, to the point where there are almost no stocks that are still falling.

So if stocks were not going up in price in this environment, that would be really weird.

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[Video] Gold Rush: Risk Appetite Increases

April 3, 2023

Gold finished the month within ten dollars of a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis.

It's an impressive feat by any standards, but even more so considering March is the weakest month of the year from a seasonal perspective.

With Gold futures bucking seasonal weakness and Silver futures and mining stocks bid, investors are sending a clear message to gold bugs everywhere...

It's time to party!

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Follow the Flow (04-03-2023)

April 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

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Miners Break Out as Gold Approaches a New All-Time High

April 3, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I thought March was supposed to be a seasonally weak period for gold.

I guess I was wrong.

Instead of rolling over, gold almost posted double-digit returns last month, while the higher beta plays (silver futures and mining stocks) soared.

As you might expect, many of the bullish trade ideas I laid out last month are working.

And, today, I have two new setups for you to check out…

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Under the Hood (04-03-2023)

April 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 31, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Your Leaders Are Leading

April 3, 2023

I've argued for years that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important stock market index.

It's a list of the most important stocks in the most important country on the planet.

Find me a better index.

You can't. I've looked.

And when you look underneath the surface at the components of the Dow, you'll notice that its Advance-Decline line is pressing up against all-time highs.