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New Uptrends Emerging

March 20, 2023

The most impressive behavior the past few weeks has to be in Bitcoin.

You can also see the performance of things like RIOT, COIN and other Bitcoin related stocks.

The bullish action transcends the asset class.

Take a look at the recent bid in Bitcoin as it bounces off its prior cycles highs from 2017:

S&P500 Gains 1.4% this Week

March 18, 2023

We saw a very respectable 1.4% rally in the S&P500 this week.

But the index is still stuck below overhead supply.

Nothing has changed.

This is specifically at the index level, of course.

You see, while many sectors were doing great throughout the back half of last year, Technology and other growth areas simply were not.

This held the S&P500 back.

In 2023 we've been seeing the opposite.

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Energy Is on the Ropes

March 17, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Due to the recent bank failures, this week has been all about the financial sector and the selling pressure taking place there.

However, the price action for energy stocks has been even worse by some measures.

The Energy Sector SPDR $XLE is on pace to fall -6.8% this week, while the Financials Sector SPDR is only lower by about -5.8%.

When we look at energy futures, the outlook only worsens with crude oil registering its largest weekly loss since trading into negative territory in April 2020.

So, what does this all mean for the bull market in energy?

The sector has been so resilient, showing steady leadership for several years now. Is it all over?

Maybe not, but there is some serious damage that will require immediate repair work.

Let's take a look at it.

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International Hall of Famers (03-17-2023)

March 17, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Volatility Rocks the Bond Market

March 17, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Markets have been on the ropes since late last week when a Silicon Valley Bank press release sparked a run on regional banks. 

As Wall Street scrambles to reprice the financial sector -- for what, up until last week, were unforeseen risks -- selling pressure and panic is spreading to Europe and other parts of the world.

Regulators are taking action. And the Fed is taking notice as expectations for future rate hikes plummet.

While Bitcoin and tech stocks have performed exceptionally well through the volatility, cyclical stocks and commodities have been hit hard, with energy and the CRB Index breaking to new lows this week.

What are we to make of all this? Should we be concerned?

Is the regional banking crisis a contained event, or is it about to send reverberations through the broader market and economy? 

Whenever we have questions like these, the first place we want to look is the bond market. 

Any signs of stress tend to show up there first.

How a One-Lot Options Trader Can "Take Half"

March 16, 2023

I’ve received a few emails over the past few weeks from people who had long calls trades that went their way – a good problem to have. But they had questions about how to manage them.

They hear me often talking about selling half of my calls when they’ve doubled in value, giving my original risk capital back, while also offering a risk-free ride on the remaining half position. This is a Best Practice I frequently employ.

The question is some variation of: “Ok, great advice. But how do I do that if I only purchased a one-lot?”

For the record, I trade a ton of one-lot trades, especially on higher-priced stocks. So I’m very aware of this issue.

To take profits out of a winning long calls trade while still remaining exposed for more upside, there are two options that I prefer:

Goodbye Inverted Yield Curve

March 16, 2023

Ever since the 2-year yield bottomed in Q1 of 2021 Technology stocks have struggled. Growth became the worst place to be.

It was NOT a coincidence that once those rates started to rise in early 2021, the Nasdaq New Highs list peaked, the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line peaked, all the ARK Funds peaked, Chinese internet peaked, Biotech peaked and everyone piled had into SPACs before they all came crashing down.

Because the 2-year yield was rising so fast, and the longer end of the curve couldn't keep up, we got the mother of all yield curve inversions.

The media loves to scare people with it because I think an inverted yield curve has predicted something like 50 of the last 8 recessions.

But now it's bon voyage yield curve inversion. Good riddance!

We're seeing the largest 5-day rate of change in the yield curve since the early 1980s:

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2 to 100 Club (03-15-2023)

March 15, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

[Options] The Tech Sector Is Holding Up Well

March 15, 2023

All things considered, the tech sector is holding up well. This gives me some comfort that this is an area we can sell some delta-neutral options premium to ride out this market volatility.

But we're going to do so carefully, defining our risks and playing it conservatively.

Check out this chart of the Technology Sector ETF $XLK:

The horizontal lines on this chart represent areas we can sell April options premium at that feel far enough away for me to like our odds.

We're going to get involved with an Iron Condor.

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Betting on the Euro

March 14, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fear runs rampant across financial markets as the US Dollar Index $DXY prints fresh one-month lows.

Wait… what?

I thought the USD was a safe haven.

Perhaps it is. But it appears the gig is up for King Dollar after being the only game in town for almost a year.

So what now, buy stocks?

Sounds good to me.

And I think we can start buying other global currencies too…

Check out the EUR/USD pair:

The euro is swinging back toward our risk level of 1.08 after failing to hold its breakout earlier this year.

It’s pretty straightforward. If and when it reclaims our breakout level, we’re long targeting 1.1450.