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International Hall of Famers (08-16-2024)

August 16, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

It's Not Just Tech - Look at Canada eh!

August 15, 2024

Toronto is such a great town.

I hadn't been here since 2019.

It's fun seeing all the ADRs in the wild - Bank of Montreal $BMO, Canadian Pacific $CP, Royal Bank of Canada $RBC and so many others!

Also, the conversations I'm overhearing in the hotel lobby have been about the S&P500 and earnings. You don't hear talk like that in many other cities.

It's not surprising, as we all know Toronto is a big financial hub for Canada. But it's reassuring to experience it and watch it thrive.

The TSX is hitting new all-time highs eh!

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Breakout Alert: The Euro Posts Fresh 6-Month Highs

August 14, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is finishing the day relatively unchanged.

Today’s much anticipated CPI print failed to move the needle for the greenback.

On the flip side, $DXY’s most significant component – the euro – is ripping toward a new year-to-date high.

Check out the EUR/USD pair completing a seven-month bullish reversal pattern, retesting its January high:

The path of least resistance now leads higher.

I like buying the euro against the 1.0958 breakout level, targeting 1.1250. But I'm out if the EUR/USD slips into its prior range.

A pop in the euro tends to weaken DXY since it makes up 56.7% of the index, acting as a bullish catalyst for stocks. 

Yet the dollar continues to hold above last Monday’s low.

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2 to 100 Club (08-14-2024)

August 14, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Big Changes In Sentiment

August 14, 2024

We use sentiment to help put the behavior of the stock market into context.

When looking at markets, it's easy to see what stocks are doing. All you have to do is look.

But what are people thinking? That's what we want to know.

When everyone is bullish, it's hard for stocks to go up in price at the same rate. When everyone turns bearish, that's historically a great time to be putting money to work.

Coming into August, sentiment was running hot. The VIX was at 10, the put/call ratio was muted, newsletter writers were giving us some of their most bullish readings of all-time, and our sentiment composite was as complacent as it's ever been.

Boy did that change quickly.

We just saw the largest week over week spike in bears among individual investors since 2022, just as this bull market was getting started.

Look at that spike this week:

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Freshly Squeezed (08-13-2024)

August 13, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Stocks with high short interest are proving resilient, even in challenging market conditions, as the bears struggle to drive down even the most hated names.

With this in mind, it's time for another Freshly Squeezed report.

Here's our approach:

We find the most heavily shorted stocks in the market. Then, we monitor these names for signs of upward momentum. Once that momentum kicks in, we ride them higher as the bears get squeezed.

We got fresh short data on Friday, so let's dive in and talk about it.

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with the most aggressive short positions.

When a stock is shorted, it means incremental buyers are waiting in the wings to close out their bearish bets.

We love this, as new buyers are the one true catalyst for higher prices.

When shorts are proven wrong, they become buyers of the stock. In many cases, this happens as momentum flows into these names and fuels massive short-covering rallies.

Nasdaq Hits New 52-week Highs

August 13, 2024

Despite any selling pressure in stocks over the past few weeks, the Nasdaq Inc continues to push to new 52-week highs, again.

This is a trend that has been in place.

The Capital Markets stocks, which are part of the Financials universe, continue to be leaders in this bull market.

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Gold Mining Stocks Rip to New Highs

August 12, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t believe the headlines.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the market.

Plenty of assets are trending higher, mainly those related to precious metals.

Gold is challenging all-time highs. Silver is catching a bid. Palladium is digging in at former support. (So much for those seven-year lows.)

And gold and silver mining stocks are ripping…

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The Minor Leaguers (08-12-2024)

August 12, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

[Options] Portfolio Insurance

August 12, 2024

When the storm is upon us, it's too late to purchase hurricane insurance. Nobody will sell it to you. Of if they will, the prices will be obscene.

Last Monday, when the VIX printed a 65 -- it was too late to buy downside protection. If you did, you were asking for your face to be ripped off. And it likely was.

Now that the dust has settled a bit, volatility has abated significantly, and the relative winners and loses sorted themselves out, we're seeing some good setups to position ourselves for any additional downside action.

Additionally, it offers me a good chance to balance out some of the risks I still have on the books in my long positions.

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The Dust Has Settled. What’s Next for Bonds?

August 11, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Here’s what happened last week...

A few bad actors used open profits from highly leveraged positions to purchase other assets.

When those highly leveraged positions turned against them – ripping their faces off – margin calls went unanswered, leading to a lack of liquidity.

Bonds ripped, stocks dipped, and credit spreads blew out. 

Now that the dust is settling, let’s review a few takeaways from last week’s volatility and consider what may lie ahead.

Credit Spreads Had it Right

Bonds hinted at a stock market correction months ago as widening credit spreads failed to confirm new all-time highs.  

The increasing stress on credit markets culminated in the High-Yield $HYG versus US Treasuries $IEI ratio blowing out to its lowest 14-day RSI reading since September 2008: