From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. You can click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
If you can pry your eyes from the UK gilt and Credit Suisse articles, you’ll find it’s not all doom and gloom across the bond market – especially high-yield debt in the US.
A quick warning before we continue: You probably won’t see a similar message on the financial news. It’s just too optimistic for the current environment. It wouldn't get enough clicks.
But facts are facts. And right now, high-yield bonds are hooking higher, while stocks are also rising.
Check out the dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 $SPX:
Whether looking to speculate, hedge or collect premiums, options players are increasingly flocking to options that have fewer than 7 days to expiration. And with the proliferation of weekly options and three-times weekly expirations in popular index ETFs like $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM, traders frequently have the opportunity to trade options expiring within 24 hours!
It is no surprise that these types of short-dated options are attractive to some players. They offer the best characteristics of options: defined risk, leverage, and affordability for even the smallest of traders.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
We held our October Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
One of our favorite anecdotal indicators is the classic magazine cover.
Journalists do a tremendous job of aggregating consumer and investor sentiment.
By the time these magazines and other features take time to plan, develop, and eventually publish their covers, they're always going to be late to the party.
That time delay often presents a prime opportunity for investors.
Similarly, ETF providers also give us a wealth of sentiment information, particularly when it comes to ETF launches and de-listings.
ETF providers have a hilarious track record of launching funds at the complete worst time while de-listing them right before things get going.
A classic example is the coal ETF that got de-listed right before the epic bull market in coal stocks just began.
In crypto, we have yet another insightful indicator, one I like to call the "FTX indicator."
People get so angry when I tell them that Energy stocks haven't even broken out yet...
The historic outperformance in Energy over the past 2 years is just the pregame.
The real party hasn't even gotten started.
The DJ is still setting up....
We haven't even mixed the jungle juice.
Take a look at the Energy Sector Index still stuck below those 2008 highs. And its largest component Exxon Mobil (23.7% weighting) below those same levels:
Even though stocks have broadly advanced on the first two trading days of October and Q4, today's market action reminds players that stocks are still risky here and the options market continues to price in this fear in the form of higher than normal options premiums.
As such, the odds favor net premium sellers in these conditions -- so that's what we're on the hunt for.
Ideal setups are ones in which a nearby support level has revealed itself so we can lean against it for risk management purposes.
One such setup can be found in Brookfield Asset Management, $BAM:
The US dollar has been under pressure for the past five days, and investors are dancing in the streets.
I get it. A weaker dollar sits at the top of every stock market bull’s wish list. When the dollar goes down, stocks tend to go up. But don’t forget – betting against the dollar has only brought pain this year.
So, instead of joining the celebrations, I nailed down a clear-cut strategy for selling dollar weakness.
Spoiler Alert: Early sell signals are already starting to fire!