I thought last night's call went well.

Sorry it went a little long and had 200 charts.

I get carried away sometimes ;)

But I tried to hit on the most important points.

ASC Premium Members can watch the replay here and download the slides.

And speaking of important points, isn't this the exact point in time to be buying stocks?

From a seasonal perspective, the time is now:

From a seasonality standpoint, this is where you buy stocks.

Sentiment is near wash out levels. Who was left to sell?

Today on BNN Bloomberg I was asked about why we were buying stocks.

I think it adds some value to talk about the risk management procedures as well. And also which stocks we want to be buying.

Here's the full clip:

This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we're covering all the action for the week ended September 30, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

Asset prices haven't been going up.

Not sure if you heard....

The gloom and doom on twitter over the weekend was pretty epic wasn't it?

And it's probably well-deserved.

The S&P500 just went out at new 22-month lows.

Gold investors were convinced by con artists that it was an inflation hedge, when it turned out to be the exact opposite all along - closing the month at new 2-year lows.

And of course, the greatest Ponzi ever - US Treasury Bond Market going out at the lowest levels since 2013:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

After months of selling pressure, the most widely followed commodity contracts are testing critical potential support levels.

More importantly, these support levels are the prior-cycle highs marked by the 2018 peaks. If there was ever a place where the bulls needed to step in and repair the damage this is it!

But, if these levels fail, we’ll have to rethink the structural uptrend in commodities.

Let’s run through the charts.

First, we have our commodity index that equal-weights the top 33 contracts in our universe:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

Who's left to sell?

That's the question I find myself asking as we finish up the 3rd Quarter today.

(We'll discuss it all Monday night 6PM ET during our Live Monthly Charts Strategy Session)

Since the market peaked in February 2021, it's been a slow grind lower for stocks all over the world.

We're now approaching 20 months of this ongoing bear market.

It's no longer a secret that stocks are going down.

You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look outside the US and beyond high-yield corporate bonds to see the stress. Here are three cautionary data points to consider: European sovereign spreads, US bond market volatility, and the steep decline in investment-grade bonds.

When you weigh the evidence, it’s clear risks are rising for US markets. 

Let’s look at the charts!

First, here's a look at European sovereign spreads:

You see what just a little bit of Dollar weakness does to this market?

I'm telling you. I'm not making this up.

Now here's the thing. Let's remember that extreme volatility IN BOTH DIRECTIONS is commonly found near turning points.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day GAIN as large as Friday's was 3/19/20.

Last time the US Dollar Index had a single day LOSS as large as Wednesday's was 3/26/20.

The Dollar Index peaked on 3/20/20. Stocks bottomed the very next trading day on 3/23/20.

Here's a look: