Back in early July, we were looking to buy a bounce in natural gas. Let's just say it was a success, as our target was hit within weeks.
But you have to remember the environment back then. Commodities had experienced a broad sell-off. And natural gas and agricultural contracts such as wheat and cotton had recently experienced drawdowns exceeding 40%.
It might have seemed like a tough call at the time, but for us it was clear. The risk/reward was in our favor as natty pulled back to test a key level. It was that simple.
Fast forward almost two months, and we’re back for more. Our risk is well-defined, and cyclical areas of the market are assuming leadership.
Today, I’ll share how we’re gearing up for a fresh leg higher in natty gas.
First, let’s take a look at the weekly chart of natural gas futures.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that, which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Identifying trends is one of the most important jobs of a market technician. Regardless of our time horizon, we have to understand the general direction the market is taking.
It sounds simple, but it’s the foundation of any market thesis.
Once we have the underlying trend nailed down, we can focus on the areas of the market we want to exploit and pinpoint the best tools and strategies to do so.
When I think of the most critical trends to date, my mind immediately goes to interest rates. Rising rates and inflation have been the key drivers for two years now.
Despite some corrective action in recent months, the bond market has been reminding us that we’re still in a rising-rate environment.
Let’s take a look.
First, we have an overlay chart of the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate and the US 10-year yield:
There's nothing more annoying than a stubborn injury that just won't go away. All you want is to exercise or to play a sport, but you're just physically unable to do it.
Among high-level athletes, there are countless stories of seasons, careers, even livelihoods lost due to injury.
I'm quite possibly the furthest thing imaginable from a high-level athlete, but I have been dealing with a minor shoulder injury of my own.
I'm working with physios to get some mobility on my left shoulder back so I can finally make use of the home gym I've recently built in my garage.
It certainly wasn't an acute injury, more of a cumulative thing worsened by living a lazy university student's life. And it's correctable. It might not be easy, but it can be fixed.
There are many types of injuries, some the consequence of normal use, some that stem from genuine human error.
The bulls have moved back into the driver seat over the past few months, as a good deal of technical damage was repaired during the summer rally.
It appears that the weakest stocks have at least stopped falling as growth indexes have transitioned to more constructive, base-building action since late Q2.
And, more recently, the strongest sectors during the current cycle have reclaimed key levels.
We’re talking about materials rallying back into their old range and energy stocks resolving above a shelf of former highs.
As both cyclical sectors are now back above our risk levels, we are looking for the strongest stocks to buy to express a bullish thesis on these groups.
When we think about the strongest stocks within materials, the coal industry and its recent resilience is top of mind.
We see no reason why the relative strength from these stocks shouldn’t continue, so let’s dive in and outline some of our favorite charts in the space.
I can’t think of an area of the market we like more than energy.
Both energy stocks and commodities held up better than their peers during the recent bout of selling pressure. And now that they’re starting to reclaim key levels, we want to put our bullish bias to work.
I recently expressed my growing unease with a short crude oil position, given the mounting bullish evidence in energy. So, let's talk about how I plan to flip the book long crude oil futures on a break higher.
That's right, we're in the 'hood. Robinhood stock $HOOD, that is.
Steve Strazza has been pounding the table about this name for so long that JC and I finally relented and agreed that it's starting to become that "put up or shut up" time.
With the stock swimming just below $10 per share, JC said: "Let's just leverage into this thing! If it's gonna work, we'll crush it. If it's not going to work, we'll know pretty soon. Below $9 we're out."