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Commodities, Ya Dig?

August 12, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter where you look: Commodities are digging in, finding support, and reclaiming key levels.

Grains, softs, base metals, and energy have all stopped going down. Even gold is bouncing off critical levels of former support.

But it’s not just the fact the commodity correction is hitting the pause button that’s important.

It’s where it's happening.

Let’s take a look at a few charts.

First we have cotton futures:

Cotton completed a monster base, breaking to fresh 10-year highs last October. A strong advance took hold during the following months.

But it was answered by a near-vertical decline back into its prior range.

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The Hall of Famers (08-12-2022)

August 12, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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HY Is Hitting Higher

August 11, 2022

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for months, and now they’re starting to take shape.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh lows, violating a multi-month trend line.

And interest rates… well, they haven’t moved much. They continue to hold their range after peaking in June. 

As expected, stocks surged yesterday in response to a weaker dollar and stable bond market. 

But stocks aren’t the only risk assets on the rise. Investors are moving out on the risk curve and bidding up high-yield bonds, too.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 Index $SPX:

Stocks Make Higher Highs

August 11, 2022

A downtrend consists of a series of lower lows and lower highs.

But the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell2000 Small-cap Index are both making higher highs.

That's, by definition, not a downtrend.

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The Short Report (08-10-2022)

August 10, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as “a market of stocks.”

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

[Options] There's Interest in Pinterest

August 10, 2022

Every idea that we put on at All Star Charts starts with a technical setup that we like. We are students of price action and that supercedes everything.

It's nice when our technical analysis lines up with "other" factors that may support our idea, be they fundamental, news, or in this case, insiders and activist activity.

Here's what our team noticed in an email to ASC subscribers earlier this week:

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing for Pinterest $PINS.

We wrote about PINS on July 15, when Elliott Management announced a large activist stake.

Now that the second quarter blackout period is behind Pinterest, CEO William J. Ready is also buying shares. He just reported a rather sizable $5 million purchase.

We can’t think of many things more bullish than the CEO getting involved following the insider activity from Elliott last week.

CEOs and Activists buying big positions? That has our attention.

Here's a chart of the setup as we see it:

You Can't Be Short

August 10, 2022

Was this just a bear market rally?

Or did we just see the initial thrust off the lows before a more sustainable move progresses into the end of the year?

That's a good question to be asking.

And while we don't ever actually know until after the fact anyway, we've set these 2 levels as clear lines in the sand for arguably two of the most important assets on the planet: The S&P500 and Ethereum.

The bottom line is this: If the S&P500 is above 4200 and Ethereum is above 1800 - YOU CANNOT BE SHORT.

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The Two Sides of the Swiss Franc

August 9, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

How funny would it be if the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked with the expectations of a 100 basis point rate hike last month?

And what would that mean for risk assets and the stock market rally?

These are just a few questions that float across my mind as I look through currency charts.

To be clear, the DXY isn't showing any signs of a top. Momentum remains in a bullish regime, and the index is holding above the upper bounds of its former range. 

I’m not going out on a limb here and calling a top in the US dollar. Instead, this is all about execution and remaining receptive to all possibilities.

A Small-cap Renaissance?

August 9, 2022

Are you seeing Small-caps breaking out to new 4-month highs relative to Large-caps?

This underperformance in Small-caps began in Q1 2021 which, among other things, sparked the beginning of the bear market.

This week would mark the 18-month point, if a bear market is even something we're still in.

This kind of outperformance from Small-caps is not something we've seen over the past 18-months.