From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision across the currency markets, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s messy out there.

The CPI data came in a little warmer than expected today. And currency markets aren’t quite sure what to make of it.

Despite the overarching range-bound action and intraday indecision, I continue to find trade setups with well-defined risks.

Today, I’ll outline another vehicle to short a potential falling dollar – the Swiss franc.

I prepared to get long the USD/CHF pair last October. But the trade never materialized. Instead, it caught lower as the USD downtrend picked up steam in early November.

Fast-forward a few months, and I’m ready to short the USD/CHF pair.

Before we break down the setup, let’s zoom out:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Yesterday, the US dollar index $DXY booked its largest three-day gain since it peaked in late September. So will today's bounce turn into tomorrow's rally?

I don't know. But you want to monitor these two levels for insight.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar index $DXY has some extra pep in its step after posting three consecutive daily gains.

In fact, the past few days constitute its largest three-day gain since the index peaked in late September.

I think it’s safe to say the long-awaited USD bounce has arrived. The question now is whether it will turn into a sustained rally.

No one knows, of course. But these next two levels will help us prepare for an impactful dollar advance…

First, let’s zoom out…

The early 2017 high of 103.82 marks the first significant hurdle for the dollar index. Let’s call it 104.

This is the video recording of our February 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Stock market bulls have been rewarded over the past 3 months.

And remember, historically these are the best 3 months of the year - November through January.

And then comes the hangover.

Think about those last three months.

Did you see people having a good time?

Were some having a little too much fun?

Would you agree there was some disorderly conduct?

Were participants behaving as if they were under the influence?

You bet.

And this sort of behavior is normal for this time of the year, and the entire 4-year cycle for that matter.

But then comes February - one of the worst months of the year.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Everyone wants to know where the dollar is headed next.

It’s great investors are showing interest in the dollar, while understanding the impact it has on risk assets at the moment. 

But I have no idea where the dollar is headed. No one does.

Regardless, I can still form a framework to help make the best logical guess despite an incomplete data set. That’s what we do at All Star Charts!

So let’s recap three points I’ve made regarding the dollar in recent months that I believe hold the greatest weight…

The Time and Place for a Bounce

Given strong seasonal tailwinds and a critical shelf of former highs acting as potential support, the likelihood of a dollar bounce last month seemed probable…

It's a market of stocks.

People forget that.

They choose to obsess over every tick in the S&P500 or Nasdaq instead of recognizing what's happening among the actual components of those indexes.

As it turns out, this has become one of our competitive advantages.

If you're wondering why we tend to be ahead of the curve on changes in major trends, I would point to this.

Most people don't have the time (or are too lazy) to sit there and count how many stocks are going up vs how many are going down.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

If the US dollar index $DXY is going to catch higher, it has a funny way of showing it. I haven't ruled out a bout of dollar strength.

Nevertheless, I'm preparing to play USD weakness.

Check it out!

The Dollar was the catalyst all along.

She was always the one.

The strong negative correlation between stocks and the US Dollar has been consistent since 2016.

When the Dollar is weak, stocks rip. End of story.

Look at how well stocks did in the 4th quarter while the US Dollar Index had its first 3 straight months of losses since the end of Covid, which if you recall sparked the greatest 52-week period for returns in the history of the stock market.

I still think it's important to focus on the Dollar, so here are some potential levels of future interest:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I haven’t ruled out a US dollar bounce. 

But it seems less likely with each passing day.

Other major global currencies are regaining lost ground following a year dominated by dollar strength. It shows in the US Dollar Index $DXY as it continues to slide back within its prior multi-year range. 

Lower lows for the DXY will not instill confidence in dollar bulls. Meanwhile, savvy investors should take its performance as a signal to buy other currencies.  

Here are two of my favorite setups from the forex markets…

Check out the GBP/USD pair on the verge of completing a multi-month reversal formation: