We held our August Monthly Strategy Session Wednesday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
Monday night, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
The US Dollar Index’s $DXY break toward fresh lows resembles a defiant crawl more than an earnest march.
An image of dragging my children away from the toy aisle flashes across my mind.
(Actually, I let them walk around the store with their toy of choice. And then, we ditch the item before checkout after a couple rounds of negotiations. It works quite well – no screaming involved.)
But while the DXY drags its feet, the individual currencies that comprise the index are picking up the pace.
The Swiss franc is ripping. The euro is posting fresh 52-week highs. And the British pound is hitting our upside objective.
While many investors have been focused on arbitrary lagging indicators like the economy, we rather keep our attention on reality.
We're grown adults. We don't need bedtime stories to go to sleep at night. So fairytales about recessions, or inflations, or bidens are just not anything we're interested in.
We get paid to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.
That bet has paid off handsomely for us and anyone listening.
So as investors we all have a choice. Do we bet that the correlation is all of a sudden going to change tomorrow? Or do we bet that things just remain the same?
Here is the US Dollar Index consolidating in what appears to be a classic continuation pattern, within an ongoing downtrend:
I must admit, I’m a bit jealous. And I’m not the jealous type!
They’ll visit seven cities over the course of the next month, meeting traders and financial professionals from the tip of the Malay Peninsula all the way to Japan.
I can’t physically travel with them, but I can live vicariously through their stories and videos, and, of course, my charts…
Check out the US dollar/Singapore dollar pair:
It’s not a bad time for Strazza and Sean to be in Singapore with greenbacks in their pockets.