From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.

This is the video recording of our June 8th, 2021, Monthly Charts Strategy Session.

Here is the video in full:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity -- either bullish or bearish... but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind... and they're doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this Smallcap-focused column since we launched it late last year and began rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. After applying price and liquidity filters, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

In last week's Mystery Post, we discussed this chart and posed the question as to whether or not it was about to finally break out above those prior highs.

With price coiling in a bullish flag-like continuation pattern, yet showing waning momentum - responses we're mixed with many wanting to wait for more information.

The chart was a long-term look at the Global Auto ETF $CARZ. And as far as the impending breakout is concerned, it looks like we got our answer this week...

Here's the same weekly bar chart. Looks a bit different now, doesn't it?

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

 Macro Universe:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our June Monthly Strategy Session this past Thursday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month. 

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a "big-picture" point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let's dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month's call.

For me, it's not just about one indicator or one chart.

It's a weight of the evidence game.

Since March, the bet has been Messy For Longer. We've expected a choppy environment. That's what the weight-of-the-evidence and history suggested.

But now what? Are these consolidations going to resolve lower? Or Higher? Or just stay messy for even longer?

That's what makes this all so great. I don't know. And neither do you. No one does.

It's a beautiful thing.

So as I weigh the evidence to decide rollover or breakout, I come to a series of divergences that put this stock market in quite the predicament.

With S&Ps and major indexes hovering near all-time highs, we're just not seeing it from the components themselves. Here's the Russell3000, for instance, seeing fewer and fewer new highs:

So there you have it folks, here's your Crude Oil breakout.

It was bound to happen right? It kept pushing up against those former highs.

With the Dow Jones Transportation Average hitting our upside targets last month, it's become a wait and see game. 

Are consolidations resolving higher, like they were before? Or are they resolving lower?

Based on the overwhelming amount of evidence, the bet we want to make as that Transports resolve lower, and join some of the other areas that have already been under pressure for months, like Tech and Small-caps.

When going through the components of this index, there were 6 names in particular that presented the best risk vs reward opportunities on the short side.

The first one Southwest Airlines. This looks like a top to me. How I learned it was to buy the smiley faces and sell the frowny faces.

This is the video recording of our June 3, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Over the past few days, we've seen the market resolve higher. With the new all-time high in place, we're seeing one sector witness growing strength.

Energy has been a part of the sectors that have been showing strength for some time now. However, there are a few stocks that are now joining the bandwagon of the 'breakout express' and this seems like a good time to jump aboard!

To start off, let's take a look at the Energy index and see what we've got there. Nifty Energy has clocked a new all-time on the Monthly timeframe. Needless to say, that is a big positive! So what are the levels that we're watching? Well, from a slightly longer-term view (we're looking at monthly charts, remember?), if Energy continues to chug on higher, we're looking at a target close to 23,825.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Now let's dive into the stocks.