I've been in the camp that this 20-month consolidation in the U.S. Stock Market is just that, a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend that started in early 2016, or 2013, or even further back depending on who you ask. I already made my case.

When you factor in the global market conditions, which I've done here, this is an environment where I believe it's easier to get paid buying stocks, not selling them. That could certainly change. Energy could roll over again, Small-caps and Transports could lose their former lows and new downside leadership can emerge. While I think that is the lower probability outcome, it's always an important exercise to consider the other side.

Today we're making the bear case and presenting the evidence that most points to a bearish environment in Q4 and one where we're better off selling stocks, not buying them.

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about how the spike in Crude Oil earlier this week is impacting Energy Stocks. When we look specifically at the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index, prices broke down below the 2009 & 2016 lows, only to quickly reverse back above. We also saw this happen in the Oil Services Index. Prices of the $OIH broke below the 2001 lows only to get back above it swiftly. I think if we're above 24 in $XOP and 14 in $OIH, we want to err on the long side. If we are in fact seeing a mean reversion in Energy Stocks, I would image Crude Oil will most likely be flat to up in that environment. The levels are set, now let's see how this plays out!

The mean reversion we outlined a few weeks ago has been playing out, but now the major indices are running into sellers at very logical levels.

With that said, one area looks particularly vulnerable at current levels, Pharma.

Tuesday's Mystery Chart received similar responses, with most people looking to get long if prices were able to hold above support.

Now, let's look at the chart and levels.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday's Mystery Chart is one of my favorite charts right now, so thank you all for your feedback and participation.

It seems almost everyone was on the same page here, getting involved in some way, shape, or form on the long side.

With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.

We are back with another episode of The Money Game Podcast with Phil Pearlman. Today we talk about the inability for some people trade US stocks from the long side due to biases stemming from past experiences. This is a real thing that we see constantly. So we talk about the causes, being aware of these feelings and what can be done to overcome these hurdles. I'm lucky that I've been through enough bull market and bear market cycles to not get stuck into betting on just one side or the other. But some people have a real fear of admitting they're wrong and turning bullish at, what they think might be, precisely the wrong time. Some of this is driven by ego and some is just irrational anxiety. This is a really important conversation and one that I will likely listen to again several times over in the future.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

We look at a lot of charts every week, so it's not surprising that we often come across charts that look "too simple."

A setup we've seen thousands of times or a trend that's reaffirmed itself time and time again, yet I always find myself being skeptical of a chart that looks textbook in nature.

Today I want to take a look at one of those charts.

We continue to see prices in the major indices bounce as breadth and momentum divergences remain intact, however, many of the trades we've outlined have moved away from their optimal reward/risk level.

Today we're outlining stocks we can be buying today, or in the near-term.

We've all been there and we've all seen others do it to. We get one data point and then all of sudden we're drawing direct conclusions based on that number. Think about how silly it sounds to make decisions based on a government report or even single chart or "technical pattern".

The first thing we need to do is take a deep breathe (We live better when we're breathing). Then we want to ask ourselves, "Ok, this is new data. How does this fit within the context of all the other data points". We also want to identify how much weight we want to put on this particular data point.

It's funny, when I first started studying for Sommelier exams, I caught myself doing the same thing. Instead of looking at the wine, smelling it, tasting it, thinking about what it could possibly be and then coming up with a guess, I was already making guesses just by looking at it. Light body? Pinot Noir!!! Heavy tannin? Napa Cab!!! Low acid white? Viogner all day baby! Wrong, Wrong and Wrong again!

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The TSX Composite is peaking its head out above resistance and into the fresh air of all-time highs, but can the recent strength continue?

Today we're looking for answers in two sectors that matter, Financials and Energy, which account for roughly 50% of the index's weighting.

First off, here's the TSX Composite Index breaking to new all-time highs, slightly exceeding its former highs of 16,650. Momentum has yet to get overbought, but if prices are above that level then we need to be erring on the long side with an upside objective of 18,300 over the next 6-12 months.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

One of my favorite parts of living in Sonoma, CA is going to the local market. I'm right in the heart of wine country so anything protein or produce is going to be off the charts. On the way out of the store on weekends and/or early in the week, it gives me a chance to glance at the papers and magazines. This happens much less frequently these days vs when I lived in New York City and could catch a peek at some of the cover stories every day and usually multiple times on every block.

So this weekend I'm walking out of the store double fisting sea bass (on my way to make Greek Carpaccio), and caught a quick glance at the Barron's cover story which suggested selling Railroad stocks! I'm certainly not going to take the time to read what it says, but I saw enough to turn it into a blog post explaining why I want to take the other side. To be clear, I don't mean to pick on Barron's. They're a legendary publication and quote me regularly. But that doesn't mean we have to agree all the time.

Here is this weekend's cover, for those who haven't seen it: