This is a quick follow-up to our last two posts on Canada (September 16 & December 10), updating our views and adding any new trade ideas for today's environment.
In this special episode of The Money Game, Phil asks me about any new trends I’m seeing for 2020. I give him both the sexy answer, that everyone seems to want to hear, and the real answer. I think this was a quick but valuable conversation about US and foreign markets, US Sectors like Technology and Financials and even what we see coming for Bitcoin. We had good timing on this conversation as we’re just getting starting the new year.
As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.
As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.
As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.
The US Stock Market Indexes are all hitting new highs. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who reads the work we put out.
Isn't it nice when we just let the data dictate our actions?
Good music and clean charts. It works.
So today we're going to focus on a new sector that I think is just getting started: Industrials. Take a look at the fresh breakout from its 2018-2019 consolidation:
Click on charts to zoom in
See how this one is resolving? Consolidations tend to resolve themselves in the direction of the underlying trend. This one here is apparently no different.
Let's go back to 2014-2016 and play my favorite game: "Not a Head & Shoulders Top". These are incredibly rare patterns simply for the fact that markets trend and the likelihood for a trend to continue in its current direction is much greater than for it to just completely reverse. This is common sense for those of us who have done the homework. But because they gave this "pattern" a funny name that is easy to remember, people think they're...
I'm telling you. That's my secret. And it's been starring at us right in the face at the end of every single month.
It takes me about half an hour to go through my Monthly Charts. When you add that up over 12 months, it's only 6 hours of work. There is no 6 hours the rest of the entire year that even comes close to the value I get from this monthly exercise.
Typically on Tuesdays, I post a Mystery Chart, but I expect participation to be lacking this week and I've not found a chart I think is worthy of the exercise...I don't want to make it too easy on you guys.
Instead, I want to look at a few charts that are all suggesting we may be due for a period of consolidation over the next few weeks.
I was down in New York City this week and dropped by the Nasdaq to chat with my old pal Frances Horodelski on BNN Bloomberg. Frances and I have been rapping about the markets for the better part of the past decade. It was great to chat with her once again.
In this short clip, we talk about the new bull market for stocks, rotation into Emerging Markets and Energy, where we think gold goes and how bad bonds are going to get hit if interest rates get to the 3% mark we're looking for in the US 10-year Yield.
There seems to be more data available than ever as we head into the end of this decade. It's up to us to decide how we use it, or ignore it in many cases.
I have my process and everyone else has theirs. But one thing that is a common denominator among all of us is this current period of resetting before we begin a new year.
This week I asked Phil if this calendar thing was something we made up as humans or if this is something real that we should embrace. This was his response:
Rebirth is a universal theme. Dates are milestones adding rhythmic structure. Not "required" but common across cultures and eras."
I'm glad he said that because I enjoy this time of the year. I like thinking about the things we're thinking about.
We'll have a lot more charts and trade ideas this week, of course, as we approach our Monthly Conference Call Thursday (email me if you have not registered).
But for now, I have a question. No one ever talks about 1974 being the start of the bull market, which was the low of that period. You tell me it was 1982, once they finally broke out. Which makes...