Although Turkey has already rallied 25% from the January 20th lows, the weight of evidence suggests this may be the start of a much larger move to the upside on an absolute and relative basis.
Structurally Turkey has been in a downtrend since a failed breakout near its all-time highs of 77.50 in early 2013. In August of 2015 prices broke below long-term support at 40 and have since been building a multi-month base below that level. Last week prices were able to break and close above it, while also closing above the downtrend line from the 2015 highs.
During broad rallies in the equity markets, both in the US and globally, I look for those names / sectors / indices that are not participating to the upside, as those are normally the ones that lead to the downside once the market moves lower. One of the names that caught my eye during the rally off the February lows is Pfizer.
Before getting into the analysis of Pfizer, I think it's important to point out the weak relative performance of the sector it belongs to.
The roughly 5 year daily chart of the ratio XLV / SPY shows the under-performance that's been occurring in Healthcare stocks relative to the S&P 500 since mid-2015. Recently this ratio broke down below its primary uptrend line from the 2012 lows while momentum remains in a bearish range, suggesting that this under-performance is likely to continue.
Last week a structural breakout in AUD/USD was confirmed. Whether you trade currencies or not, it's worth paying attention to because of its implications from an inter-market perspective.
From a structural point of view, the Australian Dollar has been in a downtrend since 2012, with the selling really accelerating in late 2014. Recently this pair met its downside target at support near 0.68-0.69 and began consolidating as momentum diverged positively. Last week, prices broke above the downtrend line from the November 2014 highs to confirm the bullish divergence and breakout. This development suggests that as long as prices remain above the downtrend line, this market is likely headed toward prior support near 0.8075-0.81.
Crude Oil confirmed a failed breakdown below the 2009 lows last week. This development is extremely important from a risk management standpoint and has big implications from an inter-market perspective.
This market has been in a structural downtrend since late 2014 when prices broke down out of a five year long symmetrical triangle. The resolution out of this pattern was explosive, with prices declining roughly 75% off of the 2014 highs in less than two years. During this decline there has been no reason to be long this market for anything more than a tactical bounce, but with last week's close above the 2009 lows it is finally feasible for those with a longer-term time horizon to approach this market from the long side.
This morning I was on the Benzinga pre-market radio show, where I am invited as a guest every other Thursday. So basically twice a month a rap with the boys about the direction of the Stock Market, both U.S. and globally, Interest Rates & Bonds, and more recently precious metals and precious metal stocks.
On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg headquarters in New York City to discuss markets with Joe Weisenthal, Alix Steel and Scarlet Fu. Every time I've been on a guest on this show I've had pretty much nothing but bad news to share as far as the stock market is concerned. In January, all of our downside objectives were achieved and I've really changed my tune. I think this strength we've seen in stocks over the past month continues, particularly the relative strength in emerging markets.
A few weeks ago global equity markets began to mean revert to the upside after many met downside targets and momentum positively diverged. For examples of this check out my posts from then here and here. The same failed breakdowns and bullish momentum divergences that sparked a rally globally are now present across many of the US sectors and indices.
Of the 41 US indices / sectors I follow, 28 of them have bullish momentum divergences on the daily charts and have either confirmed, or are working on confirming, a failed breakdown by trading back above a prior low.
Twitter has been a disaster of a stock for the majority of its time as a public company, but recent price action suggests a tradable bottom may be in on an absolute and relative basis.
Before getting into the price action, it's worth acknowledging the continued deterioration in sentiment regarding this stock in recent months. I've been negative on the stock for a while, but with the downside targets I outlined here being met, I don't see a reason to be overly pessimistic on the stock at current levels. With price action improving in the face of another poor earnings report and another slew of analyst downgrades, it appears, at least anecdotally, that sentiment is overly bearish in this name.
With sentiment suggesting a neutral/bullish stance is appropriate, let's see what price is indicating.
Regardless of how strong their brand may be, Disney continues to remain correlated to the S&P 500, as most stocks do during a bear market, and remains in a downtrend. Despite the neutral to bearish structural picture, the stock looks to be setting up for a tactical bounce in the coming weeks.
Structurally the stock remains range bound between 90 and the all-time highs at 122. During this recent selloff, prices retested the uptrend line from the 2009 lows, which also corresponded with the 38.2% retracement of the 2011-2015 rally. I don't believe in triple bottoms, and although this is the third time testing the $90 level, current evidence suggests the stock can stage a counter-trend rally before continuing to the downside.
Momentum is a word that gets thrown around a lot. I personally like to measure momentum using a 14-period relative strength index (see here), but different people have different definitions. Fine. For today, we'll argue that "momentum" stocks are those listed in the MSCI USA Momentum Index. Looking at these stocks as a group, I think they are going to continue to get destroyed going forward, particularly relative to the rest of the market.
First of all, forget this whole FANG thing. I don't know who made that up or why people like to limit it to just 4 stocks. I think it's stupid. They have nothing to do with one another and there should be others included in the list. In fact, in November I wrote a piece about how FANG stocks are this cycles Four Horseman (See here) and was further evidence at the time that made us very bearish U.S. Stocks heading into December and January. That obviously worked out very well.
Is there anyone left out there who wants to buy Yahoo? I don't see any.
Talk about terrible sentiment in a stock. Anecdotally that's obvious, but our data suggests the same thing. Also, does anyone have anything nice to say about Marissa Mayer? All of this really gets my attention and has me thinking. Can Yahoo seriously mean revert here? I think there's a good chance.
