In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the newest Sector in America: Communications. Back in 2018, the Index makers took out some of our favorite Technology stocks and put them along with some telecom into this new Index called Communications. With Google and Facebook now representing 40% of this $XLC index, the fact that we're just now breaking out to all-time highs says a lot about the space.
I had a great day in New York City Wednesday. Good meetings, good eats and good people.
BNN Bloomberg was nice enough to invite me on their network to talk charts.
Catherine and I discussed some of my favorite sectors and industry groups. We went over the macro picture and beginning of this new bull market for stocks.
Most importantly, in my opinion, we went over what it would take for us to get more defensive, at least in the near term.
I was down in New York City this week and dropped by the Nasdaq to chat with my old pal Frances Horodelski on BNN Bloomberg. Frances and I have been rapping about the markets for the better part of the past decade. It was great to chat with her once again.
In this short clip, we talk about the new bull market for stocks, rotation into Emerging Markets and Energy, where we think gold goes and how bad bonds are going to get hit if interest rates get to the 3% mark we're looking for in the US 10-year Yield.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the less talked about tenets of Dow Theory. Everyone always likes to talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming or diverging from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. But what gets forgotten is that there are many more tenets like Closing Prices are the most important, Identifying the direction of the Primary Trends and The Market Discounting Everything. Check out JC's 5 Most Important Dow Theory Tenets
This day and age we have other areas just as important, or even more important, than a group of Railroads, like what Charlie had when he first wrote down his Tenets in the late 1800s. Today we also compare the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the Semiconductor and Homebuilders Indexes as well as incorporate a series of ratios with Consumer Staples and Financials. It's more of an "and" than an "or" for us when it comes to Dow Theory.
You can also watch this entire video for just $1 by clicking this link. In this short clip below, I show you 3 specific points throughout the presentation where
1) I discuss risk management techniques and how we will know soon if we're wrong on our thesis,
2) a specific ratio that is a coincident and, often times, a leading indicator for US Stocks, and
3) how we identify specific trade ideas using the top/down approach, with 2 ideas in particular that we want to take advantage of today.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about why we want to keep selling gold and buy stocks instead. This trade is working and we don't want to fight it. This has been our base case for months, as you can see here. One of the things that we want to incorporate into our study of price is the positioning of Commercial Hedgers and Speculators, which is published weekly by the CFTC in the Commitment of Traders Report.
In this video I explain how we use this data, why we care, and when to pay attention!
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the relentless buying pressure in stocks throughout the first half of November. Even when the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not register a positive day, the market didn't really go down either. In fact, we've just seen the two smallest down days in the history of the Dow Averages that date back to the 1880s. This is what we're talking about here. Some might think we're overbought, but I would argue that the overbought readings are just normal characteristics of uptrends. They should be overbought. I still think the Dow sees 30,000.
I was in Las Vegas this past week for a bunch of meetings and conferences. There was a lot going on in that city. There were traders and analysts at every hotel on the strip. It was really cool to see old friends and, of course, meet new ones. I personally found myself in a half dozen hotels arguing about markets and seeing a bunch of live music. Check out this video I shot at the Santana show at Mandalay Bay.
On Thursday afternoon I was hanging out at Bally's with David Keller talking about Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Copper, Sector Rotation, Market Breadth, Sentiment and the current market conditions. This one was short and sweet but we covered a lot:
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about all of the new highs we're seeing on both Weekly and Monthly charts. We've been pointing to the improvements in market breadth in recent months and how we've been getting an expansion in positive participation, not a contraction. This week we started to finally see this work its way into the weekly and monthly charts, but that doesn't change anything we didn't already know. We continue with the breadth discussion by pointing out that the world doesn't start and end with the 52-week highs list. We're seeing breadth improvements in the 21-day high and 13-week high lists and I'm in the camp that we'll ultimately see that reflected on the 52-week high list as well. It's a process, remember:
On October 26th I had the privilege of speaking at the Trade Ideas 2019 Summit in San Diego. It was a great opportunity to share our views, but more importantly, meet a ton of new people from all walks of life and hear their different perspectives. I had an absolute blast.
Last year JC presented at the same conference, outlining our very bearish thesis for Equities. This year my tone was the exact opposite!
I only had thirty minutes, but I ran through nearly 100 slides of Equities, Commodities, and Interest Rates, outlining our bull case for Equities.
The full video is available below and you can email info@allstarcharts.com if you'd like the full slide deck. Hope you enjoy!
