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After a sharp 10% drawdown, the S&P 500 is attempting a bounce—but let's be real, it's not looking too strong.

The magnitude of this bounce is crucial for determining whether buyers can regain control or if we're just dealing with a temporary retracement.

Typically, retracements fall between the 38% and 62% levels of the original move.

Case in point, SPY just tagged the 38.2% retracement level and immediately got rejected.

The VWAP from the all-time high is sitting right at that same level, acting as a brick wall for buyers.

If the bulls want to regain control, they need to clear the 38% line at 575. Until then, this bounce looks weak, and lower levels remain in play.

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U.S. equities are running into a major confluence of resistance after a weak rebound in recent days.

Until buyers step up and show some serious follow-through, sellers are likely to remain in control.

When looking at the most crucial risk-on groups, two sectors are approaching a resolution that could set the tone for the weeks and months ahead.

First, Large-Cap Technology relative to the S&P 500 is teetering just above the lower bounds of a two-year topping formation.

With Tech representing roughly 30% of the S&P, a breakdown here wouldn't just be a sector-specific issue—it could have broader implications for the entire market.

Adding to the concern, Home Construction $ITB, a critical...

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The energy sector has been the top performer this year, but no one seems to care.

The setup has been building for some time now.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding one of their largest short positions in Crude Oil in over a decade. 

That’s a historic bearish sentiment.

When positioning gets this extreme, the unwind can be just as aggressive. 

Any shift in sentiment or a supply shock could set off a fierce short-covering rally.

The Large-Cap Energy ETF $XLE is probably the best equity vehicle to express a bullish thesis.

XLE has been coiling at a crucial resistance level for the past three years in the context of a 17 year...

US equities are trying to prove themselves after several weeks of selling pressure. Buyers are stepping in and repairing some of the recent damage.

When I think of the group of stocks that will determine whether the bulls regain control or not, I can’t help but think of semiconductors.

They are quite literally the lifeblood of the world economy, carrying significant weight in major indexes across a variety of global markets.

The Equal Weight Semiconductors ETF $XSD is a great way to get a true read on the group.

When we look at it on a relative basis, it’s been carving out a massive top against the S&P 500.

Right now, the ratio sits near its lower bounds—neither breaking down nor catching a bid higher. 

We’re just hanging in there.

How this resolves will shape our positioning in the weeks ahead.

Just landed in Miami Beach for the Future Proof Citywide—one of the best finance conferences out there.

This place is buzzing. People like Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, Tom Lee and Dan are all here. 

Even Michael Saylor showed up this morning!

It’s shaping up to be an incredible week.

I rolled in with my friends Steve and Patrick.

These gatherings are always an opportunity to catch up, exchange ideas, and soak in the energy of the industry’s best.

But back to the markets—after two solid days, U.S. equities are in rebound mode.

Now it’s up to the bulls to prove themselves. 

The strength of this bounce will determine...

Whether you look at Europe breaking out, Gold pushing toward $3,000, or China ripping higher, some of the best opportunities are now found outside the U.S.

This has been the case so far this year.

The Large-Cap China ETF $FXI just hit 18-month highs relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, signaling a potential shift in market leadership.  

A trend reversal seems to be in play in favor of Chinese equities.

No one’s talking about it. Everyone’s ignoring these stocks.

The rules have changed. 

What worked in previous years isn’t necessarily going to cut it today.

In a market like this, uncorrelated trades aren’t just a hedge—they’re a must for diversification and risk management as leadership shifts across regions and sectors.

Steve and Jason went live yesterday, breaking down their strategies and how to navigate environments like this....

It's been a rough tape for U.S. equities these days.

When you look around, nothing is working.

There are fewer and fewer stocks in uptrends, Staples are outperforming, and the big boys are failing to hold the line.

There are times to be aggressive and times to be cautious. Right now, it's about protecting capital.

However, there are always pockets of strength that we can lean on. 

Metals continue to stand out.

Nobody is talking about them.

Gold just hit 3,000 for the first time in history.

Silver is ...

When I look at what’s working in this market, precious metals—specifically gold—stand out.

Gold isn’t just a few dollars off all-time highs—it’s breaking out of a base relative to stocks.

And when I see this, I can’t help but wonder… When does silver get its turn?

History tells us how this usually plays out. Gold moves first, then silver comes to life.

Right now, silver is sitting where gold was last year, just before it started an epic run.

If there’s a moment and place for a catch-up trade, this is it.

And with silver’s higher beta, when it moves, it really moves.

I think we’re heading back to 50.

The miners are already on the move, setting up nicely.

A couple of weeks ago, the analyst team and I put together what we called a “bearish checklist”.

We spent an hour breaking down what needs to happen for the bull market to end.

I’ve talked about a bunch of these key levels in recent posts.

From red flags in credit spreads to the Mag 7 violating a confluence of support, to fewer uptrends holding up beneath the surface.

But there is one more chart I need to share with you—Consumer Staples on a relative basis.

Staples are defensive by nature—they’re the go-to safety trade in equities, making them a great barometer for risk appetite.

And right now, they just reclaimed a critical level of support...

The tape has flipped.

Uptrends aren’t holding, leaders are rolling over, US equities are getting smoked and crypto is leading the way down.

Bitcoin has completed a top and is sliding toward the low $70Ks.

The trend is down and there’s nothing to do from the long side.

For Solana, $120 is the line in the sand.

Below that, it’s game over.

The same is true for Ethereum breaching below $2,100.

The path of least resistance is clearly lower.

I’m taking about two of the most important cryptocurrencies in the world completing massive tops.

One of the most effective ways to increase our odds of success is by focusing on assets that are not only trending higher on absolute terms but also outperforming their alternatives. 

This combination is a key ingredient of strong uptrends.

Right now, Gold checks both of these boxes. 

It’s not just flirting with all-time highs, but it’s also carving out a textbook trend reversal relative to the S&P 500. 

If we see gold breaking out of this base, then it will be time to favor rocks over stocks aggressively. 

Additionally, because of gold's defensive nature, it could signal a defensive rotation, and under that scenario, stocks could face a strong headwind.

When it comes to precious metals, Sam and Jason are the go-to guys. They break it all...

A simple moving average is a lagging indicator that technicians use to help with the trend recognition process. It smooths out the erratic day-to-day action and shows us the mean price over a stated period.

A rising average is indicative of uptrends, while a falling average is indicative of downtrends.

Moving averages can also be used to analyze a market's internals.

One of my favorite ways to use them is to measure the number of stocks holding above or breaking below their long-term mean.

If a stock is above its 200-day, it’s probably not in a downtrend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid with the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average.

This gives us a broad view of what is going on beneath the hood. 

During strong and healthy bull markets, I expect the indicator to remain elevated.