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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Getting Exposure to Crypto Miners

October 29, 2024

Bitcoin is flirting with a historic breakout, sitting just a few bucks shy of fresh all-time highs.

Everywhere I look, I’m seeing the perfect setup for a new leg higher from crypto.

Risk appetite is heating up across the board, and the strongest tokens are leaving the station. 

We have a wide-variety of vehicles to choose from to play this bullish thesis.

Whether you look at Bitcoin, Dogecoin, or the crypto miners, they are all offering asymmetrical risk vs reward opportunities.

And if we're talking about catch-up trades, Marathon Digital Holdings $MARA is the one to watch.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Crypto’s Next Bull Run

October 28, 2024

Bitcoin is on the verge of resolving higher from a massive consolidation phase.

This isn’t just a short-term consolidation; it’s one of those bases that typically marks the beginning or onset of a fresh bull market. 

These are the periods where we see altcoins multiplying, meme coins surging, and laser eyes all over the internet.

We’ve witnessed this before, and I believe we’re on the cusp of experiencing it again.

It’s also worth noting that these bullish instances have clustered around the holiday season in the past. We’re there now.

It’s all set up so perfectly for another crypto Christmas.

Take a moment to review previous cycles, and you will see just what I mean.

Here’s a zoomed out look at Bitcoin, effectively absorbing all the overhead supply at the upper bounds of the range.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Questionable Health

October 25, 2024

Health Care stocks were under pressure again this week with the large cap SPDR $XLV falling about 3%.

XLV is now the worst performing sector SPDR over the trailing 1-month and 3-month timeframe.

When we look at Health Care on an equal weight basis, the group looks even more vulnerable.

Here's a chart of the Invesco Equal Weight Health Care ETF $RSPH: 

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Dollar Rallies, Equities Resist

October 24, 2024

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been on a tear since the turn of the month, bouncing hard off support

Typically, a strong dollar would suggest a defensive tone for risk assets. But not this time.

Despite the dollar's impressive run, equities are holding their ground and showing serious resilience. Just last week, the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs.

And when you dig into the chart, DXY is still stuck in the middle of a range

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Nuclear Power Breaks Out

October 17, 2024

When I think about the strongest stocks, I’m not just looking for outperformance across different timeframes. The strongest stocks should be back to our through their old bull market highs.

Let’s discuss the materials sector in this light.

The bubble chart below shows the change from the 2021-2022 highs on the Y axis and the 3-month relative change on the X axis. I'm graphing all the materials industry groups to see how they stack up.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Assessing Credit Spreads

October 15, 2024

When I think about bonds, credit spreads are always at the top of my mind because they provide an excellent gauge of market health.

We simply measure the yield difference between a Treasury bond and a High-yield bond with the same maturity.

Another way to do it is by looking at the prices of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG compared to the Treasury Bond ETF $IEI:

Alfonso’s Daily Note

It's Time for Software

October 8, 2024

Technology stocks have been underperforming for the last three months.

However, when I dive beneath the surface looking for relative strength, software stocks catch my attention.

Here you have the Software ETF $IGV on the cusp of breaking out of a massive base.

IGV soared higher, tacking on 2.14% today as it pierced through the upper bounds of this range.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

MicroStrategy Leads the Way

October 7, 2024

Today, I joined my friend Patrick on Chart Request Live, discussing all the ticker symbols from the chat.

Click here to watch the replay.

One major topic we discussed at the end of the show was crypto and some equity vehicles to gain exposure to it.

One that stood out was MicroStrategy $MSTR, which continues to show impressive relative strength.

 

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Record Week for China

September 27, 2024

Chinese equities are surging like never before in history.

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF $FXI rallied over 18%, marking its best week ever.

We call this a "momentum thrust". Such extreme readings often precede rallies and tend to occur at the beginning of new bull cycles.

Here's the FXI chart with the 1-week rate of change in the lower pane:

As you can see, this is happening after a test of a critical support level, right at a shelf of former lows.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Silver Is Breaking Out!

September 24, 2024

Precious metals continue to show strength as both gold and silver hit new highs in today's session.

First, it was gold leading the charge, and now silver is making its move.

Let’s take a look at this silver futures chart:

As you can see, silver is breaking out of a multi-year base, with momentum accelerating sharply to the upside.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Gold Continues to Shine

September 12, 2024

Gold has been getting a lot of attention lately as it presses against its highest levels in history.

This is an exciting time to be a gold enthusiast.

Just look at what the price is doing.

Here's a long-term chart of gold breaking out to new all-time highs: