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(Commodities Weekly) Energy is on Fire in 2025: Here's What We're Doing About It 🛢️🔥

March 21, 2025

Investors in the United States are panicking because their tech stocks are sucking.

Their irresponsibly large positions in Microsoft and Nvidia have come around to bite them in the rear.

Which investors have been sheltered from this pain? The ones who own Energy stocks! 

These shareholders have, for the most part, been treated poorly over the last 15 years. 

However, that wasn't the case in the post-COVID bull market. It also hasn't been the case so far this year.

Energy has been the best sector so far in 2025: 

As you can see, the Energy Sector SPDR $XLE is up over 8% this year. It's the best-performing sector.

Conversely, Technology $XLK and Consumer Discretionary $XLY have been significant laggards. They're the only sectors trailing the S&P 500.

We think this relative strength from energy can persist. Here's why 👇

Energy stocks are above key levels of former resistance:  

The NYSE Natural Gas Index $XNG and the NYSE Oil & Gas Index $XOI are both in the process of resolving multi-decade basing patterns.

Structural trend reversals can be messy, but the path of...

All Star Charts Premium

The Hall of Famers (03-21-2025)

March 21, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

Macke's Retail Roundup

Video: Hunting For Bottoms

March 21, 2025

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

This week, I'm hunting for bottoms. There are 5 stocks that have my attention. I'm under no qualms about the fact that we could be in for more downside, but I'm officially in "tactical buy" mode. Any time you get a washout like we've gotten, you have to be willing to put money to work in strongly-held convictions. 

I've got a few on my list, and I discussed them in my weekly video.

Watch the video below.

 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/21/25

March 21, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLY.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Missing the AI Consulting Boom 📊

March 21, 2025

We recently wrote a deep dive into the boom in AI Consulting. These companies help businesses harness machine learning, automation, and data analytics.

As AI products and services become increasingly powerful, the demand for AI consultants to help implement them will only grow.

It's a brand-new mega trend.

The only problem is that the industry is entirely dominated by International Business Machines $IBM. Traditional consulting firms like Accenture $ACN are getting their butts kicked.

Accenture reported a double beat on Thursday and got crushed for it. The stock closed 7.26% lower and was down over 10% intra-day.

The reaction was nasty.

The company's operating margin is compressing due to increased competition. Moreover, the market is concerned the new administration in Washington will quit doing business with ACN. This would be a significant loss in revenue.

They also issued weak guidance for 2025, which only made things worse.

Accenture has enjoyed an industry with limited competition for...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Gold Miners Top The Charts

March 21, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Gold...

It's the hottest asset in town and it's smoking the U.S. markets in 2025. While the S&P is down 3%, Gold is up 14% and the Gold mining companies $GDX are up double that of 28%.

While this Gold trend has now certainly deserved a pause, the longer-term outlook is still decisively bullish.

Take a look at the Gold Miners ETF $GDX, which like all the precious metal mining funds is at the top of our list today. It's in the process of breaking out of a nearly five year base.

 

So long as GDX is above 44, the bias is to the upside for this group.

The Daily Number

Precious metals gleam brilliantly🪙

March 21, 2025

Today's number is... 12

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index just closed at fresh 12-year highs.

Here’s the chart:

 

The Takeaway: The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, an index of thirty precious metal mining companies traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, closed yesterday at a fresh 12-year high.

This base-on-base breakout in the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index suggests the path of least resistance is higher for precious metals.

100% of the stocks in the index are above their 50-day moving average.

80% are above their 200-day moving average.

If you didn't know already, we’re in the midst of a serious gold rush.

There is nothing bearish about this for precious metal stocks! 

Are you buying precious metal stocks here?

Let me know!

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Hanging by a Chip

March 20, 2025

US equities are trying to prove themselves after several weeks of selling pressure. Buyers are stepping in and repairing some of the recent damage.

When I think of the group of stocks that will determine whether the bulls regain control or not, I can’t help but think of semiconductors.

They are quite literally the lifeblood of the world economy, carrying significant weight in major indexes across a variety of global markets.

The Equal Weight Semiconductors ETF $XSD is a great way to get a true read on the group.

When we look at it on a relative basis, it’s been carving out a massive top against the S&P 500.

 

Right now, the ratio sits near its lower bounds—neither breaking down nor catching a bid higher. 

We’re just hanging in there.

How this resolves will shape our positioning in the weeks ahead.

...
The Strazza Letter

Big Red Flags

March 20, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

I’ve been tough on US equities lately. But it’s really nothing new.

Since last summer, I’ve been writing and talking about taking profits in the US - particularly in US growth - and redeploying that capital overseas.

But the truth is I’m rooting for US stocks. I always am.

So, let’s talk about what I need to see to get excited about them again.

In a few notes last week, I stressed the importance of registering two consecutive up-days at the index level. We’re not going to establish a tradable low without some bullish follow-through.

My attitude has been, “talk to me once we get back-to-back green candles.”

And while I’m really not impressed by the action at all, we did achieve this simple milestone earlier in the week. Congrats to stocks!

The bottom line is this is still a “show-me market.” Let’s discuss what bulls need to see next.

It’s all about growth stocks when...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Head to the Water

March 20, 2025

Today's trade feels like a rare find: a stock in a clearly defined uptrend, at or near all-time highs, and appearing to want more.

And the underlying company couldn't be further away from the tech sector that still needs time to repair.

Macke's Retail Roundup

Bottom*

March 20, 2025

Ending a correction is a process. Hoping for a capitulation Crash is natural but a bit of a sucker's game and sort of misses the point. Getting into a crash is the same process only bigger. It's like ranking tornados; some are big, some less so but the sequence is always the same.

An Unquantifiably large negative confluence of negative catalysts starts to form. Uncertainty is bad but most people buy the dip. But then the news gets worse. And relentless. The selling builds steam as consumers and businesses start missing/ guiding lower. Indices fall (>10% or it doesn't count) but the damage is way, way worse under the surface. There is no place to hide.

[Emotionally the short version is 1. "Buying the dip, thanks for the free money, Market". 2. "I'm still up huge and can ride this out" 3. "I should have taken some profits" 4. "It's that idiot's fault I'm losing money and I hate Bankers/ Traders / Shorts and this is all a scam" 5. "Capitalism has failed. I'm selling and living in an RV"]

Then we bottom.

We've checked a lot of the required boxes for a bottom to at least get started at this point. The market is still wobbly but the brutal, indiscriminate...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/20/25

March 20, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLI.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Broadwood Partners Reports a $2.4 Million STAA Purchase

March 20, 2025

Familiar names top today’s list.

📌 Broadwood Partners, a key stakeholder and long-time believer in Staar Surgical $STAA, just filed a Form 4 revealing a $3.6 million buy.

Broadwood has been deeply involved with STAA for years, making its moves worth watching.

📌Steve Cohen’s Point72 made some serious noise filing an original 13G for  Relay Therapeutics $RLAY revealing a 5.70% stake. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 20, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Redwire $RDW CFO Peter Cannito joined an insider wave here with a $175,127 buy.

The chief financial officer’s move, showcases continuing leadership belief in the aerospace and defense company’s future.

All Star Charts Premium

Junior Hall of Famers (03-20-2025)

March 20, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

Consumers Are Spooked - And This Stock’s in Trouble 📊🐻

March 20, 2025

General Mills $GIS slid lower on Wednesday after reporting mixed earnings.

The company's margins are contracting because of inflationary pressures. Last quarter alone, the gross margin fell 60 basis points to 33.4% of net sales.

In addition, the North American, pet, and international segments experienced a 7%, 5%, and 4% decrease in net sales, respectively. It wasn't good...

The management team discussed consumer confidence at levels last seen in 2008. This is a big problem for a company directly exposed to the consumer!

Overall, this report was a disaster, and the market punished the stock for it.

Here are the earnings stats from the report 👇 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, the $32.63B packaged foods company reported revenues of $4.84B, versus the $4.95B estimate, and earnings per share of $1, versus the $0.96 estimate.

The stock fell 2% with a reaction score of -2.99, and it's now flirting with fresh 4-year lows.

Now, let's talk about the technical setup.

GIS has been punished for 7 of its last 10 earnings reports 👇 

General Mills has suffered a drawdown of...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Where the Money’s Flowing Now?

March 20, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

The dominant force in equity markets right now is the record rotation out of U.S. equities and into international markets.

The biggest losers over the past month? U.S. growth stocks. And at the tail end of that risk spectrum, speculative growth—best represented by ARK Innovation (ARKK)—has taken the hardest hit, dropping 25% and failing to hold its long-term breakout.

 

We’re closely watching whether this broader rotation out of U.S. stocks sustains in the coming months. If capital starts flowing back into the U.S., ARKK would likely be a major beneficiary.

A successful reclaim of its breakout level would set up a bullish long-term trend—but everything hinges on the international vs. U.S. capital flows.

We broke all of this down in yesterday’s Emergency State of the Markets stream. The All Star Charts team joined the discussion, along with esteemed trader John Netto, who shared his insights on the Fed’s announcement.

...

The Daily Number

The US is the weakest🌍

March 20, 2025

Today's number is... 1

Out of the seven global regions I track, only one is negative year-to-date, and that is the United States.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • Each line represents a different global region's year-to-date performance.
    • Green lines represent global regions that have a positive year-to-date performance.
    • Red lines represent global regions that have a negative year-to-date performance.
    • The black line shows the year-to-date performance of the All Country World Index.

The Takeaway: The global leadership has shifted in 2025.

In 2024, the United States was the leading region with an impressive return of 24%, while Europe Ex-UK was the worst region which lagged behind with only a 0.9% yearly return.

However, in the 52 trading days of 2025, Europe Ex-UK has emerged as the current leader, posting an impressive year-to-date return of 19% so far. In contrast, the United States is underperforming every region among the seven I track and is the only region to...