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The energy sector has been the top performer this year, but no one seems to care.

The setup has been building for some time now.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding one of their largest short positions in Crude Oil in over a decade. 

That’s a historic bearish sentiment.

When positioning gets this extreme, the unwind can be just as aggressive. 

Any shift in sentiment or a supply shock could set off a fierce short-covering rally.

The Large-Cap Energy ETF $XLE is probably the best equity vehicle to express a bullish thesis.

XLE has been coiling at a crucial resistance level for the past three years in the context of a 17 year...

As the first quarter slogs to a close with stocks down for the year and the outlook for the rest of the year "murky" at best ("horrifying") at worse it's time to start taking inventory, as they say in the retail industry. There are trades to be had but the real money is going to be made investing at a good price and letting the investment work. It's sort of a waste of time to call Generational Bottoms, there just enough of them. Consumer facing stocks have just been beaten senseless for 3 months; it's time to start looking for opportunities. 

Current Situation: The Pain is Real

I don't need to beat it to death again but the pain has been real. Despite decent trailing earnings there's been a lot of caution from the merchants, mostly based on the impact of uncertainty from tariffs and trade wars. We still don't have details on tariffs, and won't until next week if then, but we're already paying for it in sentiment. Consumer Confidence as measured by outlook for next 6 months just hit 12 year lows. Americans are mad and afraid; typically not times when we spend a lot of money.

Walmart kicked off earning's season by warning of a cautious...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling XLC to May options.
3. Exited XLE and XRT.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Steve and I went live to break down last week’s most notable insider buys, filtering the real “smart money” moves from the noise. 

We ranked them from 1 to 5 based on size, the buyer, and the filing type.

Here’s the replay.

📌 Today's standout insider activity comes from a cluster of Form 4 filings by multiple CEOs

• Pebblebrook Hotel Trust $PEB
• Ulta Beauty $ULTA
• F&G Annuities & Life $FG
• Prospect Capital $PSEC

A CEO buying shares is already a strong bet—but when multiple CEOs step in at once, the signal becomes even more compelling.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 24, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Starboard Value increased its stake in Qorvo $QRVO from 7.79...

Today's number is... 27%

Only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently above their 50-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The red line in the top panel shows the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day Average.

The Takeaway: As of yesterday's close, only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently trading above their 50-day moving average… In short, this breadth reading needs to improve sooner rather than later, as the S&P 500 typically faces challenges when the majority of sectors are below their 50-day moving averages. 

The 10% correction we experienced in late February into early March caused some damage to the intermediate trend. However, over the past seven trading days, we have seen a resurgence of bullish activity, with the S&P 500 index climbing over 4%. While...

The U.S. markets have rebounded after reports the White House is easing their position on tariffs.

Most importantly is that this news has provided fertile grounds to build a new rally, and with the S&P 500 back above a key level of support the bias has shifted to a more optimistic one.

While value has climbed to the top of the rankings in recent weeks, we could see growth mobilize up the ladder as we see the trends that have persisted over the last month mean revert.

In other words, the short-term outlook has improved and it's in favor of growth right now.

Yesterday, Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos went live to discuss the screaming hot insider transactions hitting the tape as markets rebounded.

You want to know what the best insiders are buying? Click here to see the...

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Those bear flags we discussed last week have since resolved higher.

After a little pop on Friday, today marks a critical follow-through day for the broader market.

But we already talked about how an oversold bounce was basically a foregone conclusion. We literally knew it was coming. The fact that we finally got it is not a bullish data point.

The next step now is to measure and judge the quality of this rally. There could be some bullish evidence there.

I already outlined some of the most important levels I’m paying attention to.

It’s all about VWAPs for the major averages. The large-cap indexes have the August VWAPs, and the SMIDs have the Q4 2023 VWAPs. They’re all right there.

Here’s the S&P 500 drawn up to show the confluence of resistance around this level.

In case you missed it, we're amid a raging precious metals bull market.

Gold miners are playing catch-up, and they keep making new highs.

Silver is on the cusp of resolving a historical base that dates back to 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market.

All the while, the yellow metal is soaring versus every fiat currency in the universe.

Tesla is ripping this morning, up 10% so far on news that the tampon guy gets his rocks off when TSLA stock falls in price. 

This is a former Vice Presidential Candidate up on stage rooting against an American institution that employs over 125,000 Americans. 

What a loser.

Fortunately, he did his little dance right at the 61.8% retracement of the entire TSLA rally off the late 2022 lows. 

It was almost too perfect. 

We obviously put on the trade.

To not buy Tesla on that kind of silliness would have been irresponsible. 

So far so good.

Meanwhile, speaking of crazies, the sentiment towards Michael Saylor has also spiked towards the pessimistic side.

I love that.

This was a beautiful bear trap:

We discussed all the details on the entry for the Tesla trade and...

With today's early rally and VIX on its way back down the recent mountain, now feels like the right time to capture some options premium in a wide Iron Condor in the QQQs.

I'm not calling that the bottom is in, but I'm open to it. Either way, it's unlikely we V-Bottom out of this morass, which is why betting on a wide, sloppy, sideways range feels right to me.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XLB and EEM at profit targets.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

Some of the most important names in software and semiconductors are seeing fresh buys, perhaps indicating confidence at bargain levels.

📌 Adobe $ADBE

CFO Durn Daniel bought 1,300 shares, equivalent to $507,759. 

Following CFO insider buys is crucial because they know the numbers better than anyone. When a CFO puts their own money on the line, it’s often a strong signal of confidence in the company.

📌 Oracle $ORCL

Director Michael J. Boskin added $111,145—not massive, but still a nod to a software heavyweight that’s been holding key support.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 21, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Advanced Micro Devices $AMD & ASML Holding NV $ASML

Sen. Ashley Moody purchased $100,000 to $250,000 worth of AMD and between $50,001 and $100,000 of ASML—two semiconductor powerhouses way off their highs from last year.

Sen. Moody also bought $100,000 to $250,000 of Lilly(Eli) &...

Nike reported earnings on Thursday evening, and the market crushed it on Friday.

It was the stock's 4th consecutive negative earnings reaction. This is one of the longest beat-down streaks in the S&P 500.

Our retail analyst, Jeff Macke, said, "Nike (was) expected to report its worst quarter in years." The expectations were super low, allowing the company to beat expectations across the board.

They reported revenues of $11.27B versus the $11.02 estimate and $0.54 per share versus the $0.30 estimate. It was a great quarter, so why didn't the market reward the stock?

Here's what Jeff thinks, "because of the massive size of the Nike, turning it around is like doing doughnuts in an aircraft carrier. It takes time and space."

In other words, the market wants to see more. 

Nike is guilty until proven innocent.

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see...

Bottoming is best thought of as a process rather than a moment. The all look different but when you see a correction it usually hits these stages:

• A negative catalyst appears, usually when stocks are expensive. Expensive stocks get sold. Investors "rotate" with growing speed.
• The threat seems larger. Inevitable. The rush to the exit picks up pace in stocks. Everyone's running the same playbook and "sell" is the only defensible call as every group sells-off.
• The tide turns, slowly then all-at-once. The risk becomes quantifiable. Bad news becomes more company specific. Selling slowly dries up as (dirty truth of investing here): The Optimists Always Win.

That was the case to a much greater degree the greatest bottom in the history of consumer discretionary stocks in March of 2020. The group was down 35% in just over a month. Stores were shutting down day after day, leading to pretty much the entire economy being shutdown for the foreseeable future. 

It was a really hard time to start buying consumer discretionary stocks. Like a Trade...

The S&P 500 continues slipping in the power rankings as long-term trends shift in favor of international markets.

This transition is clear in the S&P 500’s shift from green to red—signaling weakening relative strength.

We’ve highlighted this rotation for some time.

Two key questions arise from this:

• Will international markets outperform the U.S. over the long term
• Which leads in the short term?

Last week, money rotated back into the U.S., with the S&P 500 bouncing, albeit modestly. Further, the ratio between the two bumping into this resistance zone could signal further short-term strength for U.S. equities.

A pause in the capital exodus out of the States wouldn’t be surprising—many trends, including Gold, Bitcoin, and growth stocks, appear exhausted for now.

This week, we want to be on the lookout to see if money continues its short-term rotation out of global and back into the States. If so, it could set the stage for the next few months as international digest their gains.

In that tape, we could see some catch-up trades emerge in the...

Today's number is... 10

S&P 500’s price is currently trading under its 10-month moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
• The red line is the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray lines highlight when the price is above the 10-month moving average.

The Takeaway: With just six trading days left in the month, there's one model I'm paying close attention to. The bulls need to work hard to push the S&P 500 price back above its 10-month moving average. At the moment, the S&P 500 is 1.7% below this moving average. If the price stays below it, this could create challenges for stocks.

I have done the math… Take a look at the table on the chart.

If you've been following me for some time, you know that I like to know what type of market environment we’re in. One of the simplest strategies I use for assessing the longer-term environment is: If...