Today's number is... 3

Three of my key Risk-On/Risk-Off ratios are reaching new lows.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel illustrates the relative ratio of High Beta vs. Low Volatility. In the middle panel, the gray line represents the relative ratio of High Yield Bonds vs. Treasury Bonds. Lastly, the black line in the bottom panel depicts the relative ratio of Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary vs. Equal Weight Consumer Staples.

If these ratios rise, the numerator (risk-on) is outperforming the denominator (risk-off); if they are falling, the denominator(risk-off) is outperforming the numerator (risk-on).

The Takeaway: These three ratios are my go-to favorite Risk-On/Risk-Off barometers: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, High Yield Bonds vs. Treasury Bonds, and Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary vs. Equal Weight Consumer Staples.

In healthy bull markets, these ratios move up and to the right on the chart.

Right now, they are not…

They are moving lower...

We talk a lot about rotation around here. But there isn't anywhere that it's as pronounced as in U.S. stocks compared to everything else.

This week we talked about U.S. Technology and High Beta hitting new 22-month relative lows. 

Keep in mind, that despite so many things working this year, the exposure that U.S. Indexes have to American Tech stocks is off the charts. 

You simply don't have any American Mega-cap Tech stocks in Europe (FEZ), which is up over 14.5% this quarter. Latin America (ILF) and Africa (AFK) are each up 13.5% this quarter. And Chinese Internet (KWEB) is up 20%. 

These are historic returns to start the year. And I'm not cherry picking here. We're literally talking about every continent except North America. 

Meanwhile, the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 are all...

If global growth is going to pick up, you’ll likely see it first in the copper to gold ratio. 

Historically, it moves in lockstep with the 10 year yield — and right now, there’s a glaring gap. If that gap closes, copper’s about to get loud.

And it’s already whispering.

Copper just hit a 52 week high.

International stocks are starting to hum.

Momentum always shows up quietly before it slams the door.

Here’s the kicker: global growth isn’t being driven by the usual suspects. It’s not the U.S. or Europe. It’s the rest of the world — emerging market and developing economies are growing at 4.2%, more than double the 1.8% of advanced economies. 

The world is moving at 3.2%, and the heavy lifting is coming from places most investors still ignore.

That matters. Because copper doesn’t just track growth — it sniffs it out early. And right now, it smells something big.

(TLDR) Why we think copper moves higher from here:

• Copper just broke out to a new 52 week high
• International equities are gaining momentum alongside it
• The...

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This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

There are so many things working this year. American Growth stocks are just not on the list.

The underperformance from this group is on another level. These are things that haven't been seen in 20 years.

Look at U.S. Technology hitting new cycle lows relative to the S&P500. The struggle has been real since last summer. And the selling has not slowed down.

Also notice how the High Beta Index is hitting new lows relative to Low Volatility.

Over half the S&P500 High Beta Index is in Technology.

Berkshire Hathaway, for example, which is hitting new all-time highs, is one of the largest component of the Low Volatility Index.

It's the High Beta stuff - Tech and Consumer Discretionary, that's leading the way lower in the United States.

Here is the Semiconductors Index peaking last summer relative to the S&P500 "in the middle of an AI Revolution" lol. 

AI revolution. More like an AI hallucination...

There are so many things working in this market.

Every single sector in the U.S. is either flat or up in 2025, except for Technology and Consumer Discretionary which are both down double digits this...

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In strong, healthy bull markets, high-beta stocks tend to lead.

These are the riskier, more volatile names—mostly Tech and Discretionary. They're the high-flyers that drive markets higher.

On the other hand, low-volatility stocks are more defensive in nature. Think Consumer Staples and Utilities. They're where investors hide when uncertainty rises.

Right now, the SPHB/SPLV ratio is collapsing to fresh 52-week lows.

When risk-on stocks underperform and defensives take the lead, it's a sign of shifting tides.

The bulls are running ...

Copper futures are breaking out to new all-time highs. Is this a signal for the whole Base Metals complex?

We think so and here's why.

When Copper leads, the rest of the base metals often follow. 

We've seen this happen in numerous cycles. The last occurrence was in 2020.

This trade is even better when Gold is the first one out of the gate, which is the case this cycle. We discussed it a few weeks ago - be sure to check out that post if you haven't already.

The evidence for a base metals rally has been stacking up recently. Aluminum is shaping up nicely, and we think it could be one of the next to go.

From there, we expect Steel, Nickel, Tin, Zinc, and all of the rest to follow.

This index holds an equally-weighted basket...

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

Everyone has an opinion on the stock underlying today's trade. Strong opinions.

The Bulls think the stock price is a steal here. The Bears think this party is over, and a long overdue comeuppance is on the horizon, which will careen the stock price lower.

What if everyone's wrong?

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

It's another down week for consumer stocks. There was hope for a bounce earlier in the week, but now we're more or less back to where we ended last week. 

Call it a crisis of confidence. Several stocks on my watchlist have gotten crushed this week (one of which I love from the short side). Other than that, I'm laser-focused on the key buy levels for the rest of my favorite names.

I reviewed these levels in my weekly video for Macke's Retail Roundup members.

Watch the video below.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled GLD to May options.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

When insiders pour millions into a stock, it’s hard not to notice. 

📌That’s exactly what happened at Akero Therapeutics $AKRO, where Director Graham G. Walmsley picked up $8.79 million worth of shares.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 27, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌Stonehill Capital Management filed an original 13G for JOYY $YY revealing a stake of 6.30%. 

The stock has been trying to reverse from a long-term bearish trend to potentially bullish on higher timeframes—making this new stake even more intriguing.

📌Carlos Slim’s Control Empresarial de Capitales added another $3.22 million to its stake in PBF Energy $PBF.

Lululemon is getting boot-stomped early Friday after the company.... wait for it... beat earnings estimates and guided lower than Wall Street's official estimate for the first quarter and all of 2025. 

There are a few reasons investors shouldn't have been shocked by LULU's soft guide. "Beat and Guide Lower" has been the theme of retail earnings for over a month, as featured in this article called "Beat and Guide Lower' is 2025's Hottest Trend". Lulu flagged weakness in North America a year ago, way before it was hip and the stock has been a murder-pit ever since. Which is also not a secret and something I discussed earlier this week.

Lulu is who we thought they were but that's not proving to be a good enough reason for buyers to step in as the stock probes the bottom of a multi-year range in between $300 and $400 (save for a few spikes):

A few thoughts:

LULU's Growth Problem Is Real

Since 2021 LULU has grown revenues at a CAGR of 19%, expanded margins 170bps and increased EPS from ~$4.50p/s to over $14p/s. In 10yrs Lulu grew its men's business from a...

Today's number is... -0.2%

As we near the end of the first quarter of 2025, the average stock in the S&P 500 has a negative return of -0.2% year to date.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

Each row in the table represents the average stock within each S&P 500 sector. The first column shows the average year-to-date percentage. The second column reflects the average percentage relative to the 50-day moving average. The third column indicates the average percentage relative to the 200-day moving average. The fourth column displays the average percentage from the 52-week high, while the fifth column shows the average percentage from the all-time high.

The Takeaway: The average stock within the S&P 500 index has dropped by -0.2% year-to-date. Among the sectors, the average energy stock is performing well, showing an increase of 7.2%. In contrast, the average technology stock is struggling, down by -5.1% year-to-date.

Overall market leadership has become increasingly narrower in Q1 of 2025. 

In a healthy bull market, stocks typically...