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Macke's Retail Roundup

The Casino is Closed

April 7, 2025

Stocks are getting destroyed all over the entire world. Things could turn on a dime but, for the moment and for good reasons investors are selling risk assets.  The selling is global, the Volatility Index has spiked. Over the weekend social media was dominated by talk of the crash, the tariffs and the need to get off this path as fast as possible before we do more permanent damage.

As I discussed in real time last week ("Sound the Alarm") there was a single flash point for this crash: the ridiculous, clumsy, catastrophic moment the POTUS held up his chart.

 

Why was the placard so bad. Well, I wrote about it here and my friend @The-Real-Fly on Twitter rather neatly sums up the point here:

 

The Rules of the Casino

That about covers it. Trump changed the rules of the international finance casino. In markets of all kinds participants value "stable" over "fair". Meaning they'll deal with slightly...

Hot Corner Insider

Neuberger Berman Reports Significant New Stakes in KD, EPAC, and MLR

April 7, 2025

U.S. equities suffered a historically sharp drop last week, shaking out weak hands.

It’s often during these moments of heightened fear that savvy players quietly make their move.

Here are today’s standouts:

Neuberger Berman smelled opportunity in the sharp decline, disclosing new 13G filings in a handful of under-the-radar names:

📌 Kyndryl $KD – 5.40%

📌 Enerpac $EPAC – 6.10%

📌 Miller Industries $MLR – 6.60%

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 4, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Victoria’s Secret $VSCO

BBRC International filed a Form 4 disclosing a $3.43 million purchase—continuing its aggressive bet on the lingerie retailer’s turnaround story.

📌 Salesforce $CRM

...
The Daily Number

The Bears went back-to-back🧸

April 7, 2025

Today's number is... -4%

The S&P 500 posted back-to-back -4% down days last week. 

Here’s the chart:

  

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The red lines highlight the days the S&P 500 posted back-to-back -4% down days. 

The Takeaway: At the end of last week, we experienced some significant daily declines. On Thursday, the market fell by 4.8%, and things worsened on Friday, with a decline of 5.9%. 

When we take a look at the data, consecutive days with drops of -4% or less are relatively rare. However, this kind of weakness in a bear market could indicate that the worst may be behind us.

It's important to keep in mind that the sample size is small, so we should approach this information cautiously. Nonetheless, historical data tells us that after such big back-to-back declines, future returns tend to be very strong.

On average, one year later, stocks typically rise by over 30%. 

Do you view this data as...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 The Bears Travelled to Europe

April 6, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

After holding up for several weeks, many global markets are finally starting to feel the weight of the Trump tariffs.

What began as a U.S.-centric correction has now turned into broad, indiscriminate selling across markets and risk assets.

Financials and European markets had been showing some resilience amid the U.S. weakness — but that’s no longer the case.

Germany’s $EWG just broke down hard, failing to hold its long-term breakout in spectacular fashion.

 

Across Europe, more countries are now struggling to break out and hold key resistance levels.

After weeks of holding firm, the bias for Europe — and most global markets — has shifted sideways to lower.

 
All Star Charts Premium

NYSE % Stocks > 200 Day Moving Average

April 6, 2025

I wanted to go back old school today.

I'm in Miami this week, where I grew up, visiting family and I'm feeling nostalgic. 

So I wanted to share a chart that I've kept with me for a long long time. I even used the same Stockcharts.com chart, that I originally annotated a handful of cycles ago, so you can see just how long I've had this one with me.

We're looking at the percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are above their 200 day moving average.

 

The idea here is that we are NOT interested in buying the indexes on their way down below 20% of constituents above their 200 day.

The goal during these times is to buy them on the way back up

I've been having this debate with some of the world's top portfolio managers and strategists for over the past 2 decades.

Some of these arguments have even gotten pretty heated throughout these cycles. I remember one private back and forth during the late 2018 period where the strategist was pounding the table about the 20% level, while I was much more focused on the 15% mark.

Here's the answer. Or at least, here's my answer:

The best...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Tech is the Culprit

April 4, 2025

Sign up for my free note here.

Today was another massacre for risk assets.

All 11 sectors got crushed.

VIX ripped past 45.

Copper had its worst day since October 2008.

Nothing was safe out there.

And if you're looking for the main culprit, it's Tech.

Tech has been leading this move lower

The warning signs were there for weeks

Back in January, I highlighted the implications of Technology and...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

(Commodities Weekly) Running on Empty: This Chart's Out of Fuel 📉

April 4, 2025

What a week for the global asset markets.

On Wednesday, the United States announced new tariffs against dozens of countries. This set off a wave of selling pressure, which appears to have no end in sight.

Silver is down nearly 15% this week...

Copper was down nearly 15% this week...

Lumber was down 13% this week...

The energy complex was down nearly 10% across the board this week...

Even Gold fell 2% this week.

It was quick. It was nasty. And it's not over.

For the bears out there, it's hard to find a better setup than Crude Oil futures.

This chart is out of energy 👇 

Crude Oil futures have broken a confluence...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 4/4/25

April 4, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XLI position to May options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Premium

The Hall of Famers (04-04-2025)

April 4, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

All Star Charts Premium

Where's the Relative Strength?

April 4, 2025

What's working in this market?

What's not selling off as much as you'd think it would be?

These are the types of questions I like to ask during environments like this.

I've seen this many times before. I can tell you that the assets showing relative strength in this market will likely be the leaders during the next recovery.

In the meantime, below overhead supply is still the key theme right now, particularly for U.S. equities.

It has been since the Dow and S&P500 lost their key levels and were unable to reclaim them. Remember the Nasdaq100...

Hot Corner Insider

Insiders Show the Way in a Red-Hot Tape

April 4, 2025

Yesterday’s tape was red hot. In times like this, it’s especially important to look at what insiders are buying. 

Here are today’s standouts: 

We got two political filings for stocks in defensive groups from two different elected representatives. 

📌 Walmart $WMT

Rep. Debbie Dingell bought $15,000 to $50,000 worth of stock.

📌 Markel Group $MKL

Rep. April Delaney similarly disclosed a $15,000-to-$50,000 purchase, betting on this property and casualty insurance leader.

Another purchase in a defensive company that stood out:

📌 Dollar Tree $DLTR

Director William W. Douglas III filed a Form 4 disclosing a $520,822 buy—a strong signal in what’s become one of Wall Street's favorite “...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 America's Two Most Important Industries Break Down

April 4, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Global markets have sold off in response to Trump's sweeping tariffs.

This is no longer just a regular dip in a bull market, it is turning into a significant cause for concern for more sustained weakness.

Two key industry groups to demonstrate this is housing $ITB, which has broken down and is now trending lower.

 

And semiconductors $SOX which has completed a major topping pattern.

 

Arguably the two most important industry groups have broken down, and are now in defined downtrends.

This isn't just a regular dip; unless we see risk assets take a significant rebound (and quickly), we're transitioning into a deeper correction that could last months, if not quarters.

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 This One Tech ETF is Still Strong

April 4, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Markets have sold off as Trump announced his sweeping tariffs to America's trading partners. There's certainly a lot of fast moving action hitting the tape and we're at a crossroads; does the market continue its selling or reverse on what was a monumental announcement?

While we certainly entertain these moves, the beauty of these rankings is that it adopts a longer-term horizon and smooths out the noise we're seeing this week.

More U.S. growth thematic ETFs are falling on the leaderboard, as technology breaks to new relative lows.

But despite this, a theme that's remained persistently strong is the video gaming and esports space. VanEck's $ESPO ETF, while pulling back, has exhibited fantastic relative strength in a market that's punished growth.

 

So long as ESPO is above its prior cycle highs near 80, this is an investment theme that remains a leader.

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Tech Underperforms While Financials Hold Up

April 4, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Technology $XLK is well into the red now as U.S. growth underperforms.

Most interestingly, Technology $XLK just broke down relative to the S&P 500 while Financials $XLF is still outperforming.

 

While the conditions in U.S. equities hasn't been favorable, it's not indiscriminately bearish. In other words, as technology underperforms, sectors like financials and communications are still holding in.

As investors find out more information on the Trump tariffs today; considering much of this recent money flow out of U.S. stocks has been driven by this rhetoric, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that tech bottoms here on a classic "sell the rumor, buy the news" event.

Of course, for now, the relative trend in tech is now down and we need to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal.

The Daily Number

The average stock is in a bear market🧸

April 3, 2025

Today's number is... -20.8%

The average stock in the S&P 500 is currently in a bear market, with a decline of -20.8%.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The red line in the bottom panel shows the average 52-week drawdown of S&P 500 Stocks.

The Takeaway: Yesterday, the S&P 500 experienced a massive decline, dropping by 4.8%. This marks the largest one-day decline for the index since June 2020.

2025 has been quite the ride so far. In early February, the S&P 500 was at all-time highs. However, just 31 trading days later, the index is down over -12%. 

And right now, the average stock in the S&P 500 is in a bear market… Down -20.8%

If you took the time to look under the hood, you'd see that most stocks have not been rising for a while. While some stocks have performed well, the majority have not.

Breadth has been telling us that the market was weak… 

And yesterday things got worse…...