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LOL it's not a bubble...

November 8, 2024

The market has spoken.

It's only a bubble if it's going up and they don't own enough of it, or any at all.

They only call things bubbles when they have a hard time understanding why prices are doing what they're doing.

As someone who studies human behavior every single day, I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that 99.9% of people who call things bubbles haven't actually done any of the work required to determine whether something is in a bubble or not.

And that's the key thing here.

There is a huge arbitrage between the people who put in the work, and actually take the time to analyze markets using real data, and those who are too busy doing other things to truly have an honest opinion about whether a particular period of time is, in fact, a bubble.

Bubbles, as those of us with common sense know, are incredibly rare, by definition.

So when someone calls something a bubble, they are almost certainly wrong about that, or in most cases, just making it up because they don't know how else to describe certain market behaviors that they can't wrap their heads around.

Bitcoin, for example, just broke out to new all-time highs...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Ethereum Joins The Party

November 8, 2024

Crypto stands on the cusp of a major bull run, and the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 feels more real by the day.

When it comes to the second in command, Ethereum seems ready to join the party.

After months of carving out a short-term reversal base, ETH is flirting with a critical polarity level of around $2,850.

 

If and when we get a decisive breakout about this area, then the path of least resistance will be higher, with a clear shot toward its year-to-date highs near $4,000.

That would ultimately confirm Bitcoin's breakout,...

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Stagflation, Bonds and Positioning for What's Next

November 8, 2024

Curious about how to handle bonds during an inflationary cycle? Wondering which asset classes tend to thrive—and which to avoid—when inflation’s on the rise?

We’ve invited Stephen Weitzel to break it all down. With the election, the Fed meeting, and a constant media buzz, it’s the perfect time to take a step back, focus on the big picture, and understand how the bond market might shape your portfolio.

I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did. Talking with Stephen is always a pleasure!

 

For more on Stephen: https://www.reveillewealth.com/team/stephen-weitzel

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International Hall of Famers (11-08-2024)

November 8, 2024

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
Breakout Multiplier

Sell the Double, Buy the Block

November 8, 2024
This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. 

If you're not a member, sign up here.

The stock market is embarking on a fresh leg higher, supported by the broadest participation we've seen this cycle.

With speculative growth stocks on fire, our $ARKK 11/15 $52 calls are doubling today. 

We want to take half off the table here and redeploy that capital into a new position. I’m selling them for $1.80.

The initial earnings reaction for $SQ is catching our attention today. The stock plunged lower but has been clawing back losses all morning.

Just look at the wick forming on todays daily candle:

 

...

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Catching Ultraviolet Rays

November 8, 2024

We recently discussed the extreme demand for uranium stocks as the AI boom progresses.

But what about the other alternative energy equities?

Solar stocks have been amongst the most hated in the entire market, right up there with pot stocks and China.

The Invesco Solar ETF $TAN looks ready to explode higher:

 

The fund is a market-cap-weighted basket of solar stocks from all around the world.

One of our favorite long-term momentum indicators, the monthly percentage price oscillator (PPO), has been improving for months and is on the verge of triggering a buy signal.

In addition, TAN has carved out a short term reversal pattern. An upside resolution will coincide with a monthly PPO cross, and we want to look for opportunities to buy the best stocks in the industry.

On a relative basis, TAN is at a critical level of interest versus the S&P 500:

 

This level represents where it began to outperform the broader market in the past.

Adding to our conviction, the 14-week RSI has carved out...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/8/24

November 8, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in SMH today.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Exited  XLP, XHB, and XLV at profit targets.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Turtle Creek Reports a $10 Million JELD Purchase

November 8, 2024

Turtle Creek Asset Management has disclosed a bold insider move in a fresh Form 4 filing. 

The hedge fund invested $10.3 million in JELD-WEN Holding $JELD, which now represents 4.8% of its $3.88 billion portfolio. 

Turtle Creek’s other top holdings include Berry Global $BERY, Middleby Corp $MIDD, and CarMax $KMX. 

Wellington Management Group filed a 13G for The AZEK Company Inc $AZEK, disclosing an increase in ownership from 9.30% to 10.31%.

As one of the world’s largest asset managers, Wellington’s increased stake indicates a positive outlook on AZEK’s market position.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 7, 2024:

 

Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse revealed $50,000 purchases of Apple $AAPL and Eli Lilly and Company $LLY, respectively.

Last but not least, two directors of Verona Pharma plc $VRNA...

The Strazza Letter

A Brand New Bull Market

November 7, 2024

It’s been a crazy two days.

The reaction to both the election and the FOMC was overwhelmingly positive for risk assets across the board.

A long list of stock market indexes and individual issues just had their best day since the pandemic lows almost 5 years ago.

NYSE new highs just hit its highest reading in years, telling us the rally is supported by the broadest level of participation this cycle.

The election ended up being the catalyst to break out prolonged ranges in things like regional banks, biotechs, speculative growth, industrial metals, and even bitcoin.

These groups are finally joining the bull market party, and they are kicking it off in a big way.

So, what’s the big takeaway from all this? 

The chart that illustrates it best is the Russell 2000 Micro-Cap Index $IWC:

 

I’ve annotated it to show the different stages of a market cycle.

IWC just had its best day since April 2020, printing a breakaway gap to new...

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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: Jeff Hirsch, The Master Of Seasonality

November 7, 2024

Below is the 8th ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

If you're going to talk about market seasonality, you might as well talk to the master. Jeff Hirsch is the editor and publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. His dad, Yale Hirsch, literally created the Almanac and is responsible for bringing the idea of market seasonality to the mainstream. 

There is no one that understands market seasonality better than Jeff. I have learned everything that I know on this topic from him. I hope you enjoy our conversation. 

 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/7/24

November 7, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XME position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Small-Caps on Fire

November 7, 2024

With the election behind us, markets seem ready for a year-end rally.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 Index led the way, climbing 6% as it registered its best daily performance since 2020.

 

As you can see, IJR jumped above its prior cycle highs from 2021, appearing, at least for now, to complete a massive base.

I’m looking for some follow-through in the days and weeks ahead to confirm this breakout. 

If we get it, this could be a breakaway gap for the history books. Based on the way it started today, odds favor it being a valid resolution.

If it holds, I think we’re likely to see a rotation into the...

Most New Highs in 3 years

November 7, 2024

The market has spoken.

They either love Donald Trump as your President. Or maybe it's that they're just happy the election is over.

Either way, this consolidation has now resolved in the direction of the underlying trend: Up.

In fact, yesterday we saw the most amount of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years.

 

Breadth expansion is not evidence of deteriorating market participation. It's by definition, the exact opposite of that.

More and more stocks and sectors making new highs is something you historically see in bull markets. So this is perfectly normal.

Remember when they kept telling you that this was only a "bear market rally" because the small-cap indexes hadn't made a new high yet?

They were lying to you.

Besides, the S&P600 Small-cap Index just closed at a new all-time high yesterday. 

 

Imagine waiting for this index to make new highs before deciding to participate in this bull market?

There are serial killers out there who actually think this way. These people are sick in the head.

The much more reliable confirmation indicator, which dates back to...

Hot Corner Insider

CEOs of HTLD, CCO, and INTC Are Buying Their Own Stock

November 7, 2024

In a notable display of confidence, the CEOs of Heartland Express $HTLD, Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings $CCO, and Intel Corporation $INTC each stepped up with fresh buys of their own stock, according to recent Form 4 filings.

When top executives reach into their own wallets, it’s often a signal they’re betting on one specific thing: They believe the stock is undervalued and primed to move higher.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 6, 2024:

 

In another Form 4, Director William Galtney Jr. reported a hefty $1 million buy in Everest Group Ltd $EG, snapping up 2,870 shares.