Before we get in to stocks and charts, I just want to thank you for your support all these years. It really means a lot to me. Today I noticed I had 61.8K followers on Twitter! How about that? Leonardo Fibonacci would be proud!
This was my first week back living on the east coast. My 2-year plan to be in California turned into 4.5 beautiful years in Sonoma Valley. This was after spending 15 years total in the northeast between college in Fairfield, CT and over a decade in New York City.
I keep getting asked, "But JC why would you ever go back???" (this is happening at least several times each day).
As we head into year end there's a lot going on in markets, particularly on the macro and intermarket front.
With that being said, I gotta give the people what they want so today's Chart of The Week is going to focus on a trade setting up in one of 2019's most controversial stocks...Beyond Meat.
When we talk about Equities, we need to think about them holistically as an asset class as opposed to simply focusing on the individual stock or sector or index we're looking at.
How quickly people forget what a beast Amazon has been for years. All it took was an 18-month consolidation for investors to fall out of love with one of the greatest stocks in American history.
The bet the bears are making is that Amazon has been lagging and dragging down the Consumer Discretionary sector, considering it's 22% weighting in the index $XLY. So if you believe this is a big market top, I understand why you would think Discretionaries are setting up for a big fall. I totally get that.
People don't like it when I tell them we're near the beginning of a new bull market in stocks. For some reason, they prefer that cozy feeling of going to bed thinking stocks are near an important high, and they've somehow outsmarted the system by selling stocks in uptrends instead of buying them.
I'm convinced some of these people must be looking at their charts upside down.
Anyway, let's take a look at the markets so I can show you why I think we're closer to the beginning of a new bull market and not near the end of an old one:
Mobile Payment stocks have been a key part of our focus on the Technology theme taking place across various sectors of the market.
Since the summer the space has cooled off a bit but is back at levels where it would make sense for the trend to reaccelerate to the upside.
Here's the Mobile Payments ETF vs S&P 500 ratio (IPAY/SPY) pulling back to trendline support. This looks like a normal pullback within a long-term uptrend, however, our concern is that momentum got oversold for the first time since mid-2016.
The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, but unfortunately, this one has so we need to watch if prices bounce from this level and resume their uptrend (preferably getting overbought once again) or if they roll over through support and make fresh lows.
Copper has been getting a lot of attention as it hits 5-month highs, but there is another Base Metal chart that's not being talked about.
Today we're looking at that chart and then taking a more comprehensive approach at what's going on in the space.
Here's Copper making 5-month highs as momentum attempts to get overbought. The record net long position held by commercial hedgers continues, suggesting they think Copper prices can still head higher despite a more than 10% rally from the July failed breakdown.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
Stronger Copper is a good thing for Emerging Markets and reflects market participants pricing in stronger economic growth conditions.
It's been about 4 months since our last Canada update and many of the trades we outlined there have run their course, so today I want to look at 3 stocks with a common catalyst to spark their next move higher.
With that being said, today's focus is on one sector and its largest component, both of which look vulnerable to further downside.
Let's take a look.
One of the tools we use for Indian stocks due to how top-heavy the market is are chart overlays of a sector/index's largest component and the underlying sector/index. The largest component in most cases can represent a major portion of an index and act as either a helium balloon or lead balloon, pulling the index up or down on a whim. When their performance diverges, that's when we want to pay attention.
Over the last few months, we've seen a divergence in the performance of Vedanta Ltd. which represents 19% of the Nifty Metal Index. Vedanta is making lower highs as the sector makes higher highs, suggesting that potential weakness could be ahead the group as a whole.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the less talked about tenets of Dow Theory. Everyone always likes to talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming or diverging from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. But what gets forgotten is that there are many more tenets like Closing Prices are the most important, Identifying the direction of the Primary Trends and The Market Discounting Everything. Check out JC's 5 Most Important Dow Theory Tenets
This day and age we have other areas just as important, or even more important, than a group of Railroads, like what Charlie had when he first wrote down his Tenets in the late 1800s. Today we also compare the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the Semiconductor and Homebuilders Indexes as well as incorporate a series of ratios with Consumer Staples and Financials. It's more of an "and" than an "or" for us when it comes to Dow Theory.