I can't believe I'm publishing the 100th Episode of this podcast that I started in the summer of 2017. My first guest ever was Ralph Acampora! I mean, how could it not be right? Since then I've had the privilege of interviewing Portfolio Managers, Traders, Analysts, Best Selling Authors and even a World Series of Poker Champion! People all over the world have approached me how much they've learned from listening to the podcasts. It's been an amazing experience for me all around.
This post is a quick update on a name in the Consumer Goods' space that we've been watching for a breakout, as well as two other names worth putting on your radar.
With our upside price objectives being met across in Equity markets across the globe, we've shifted our focus to buying Bonds and selling Emerging Market stocks with the expectation of a choppy environment for stocks as an asset class over the coming weeks and months.
With that said, just because the indexes may be choppy there will be winners and losers that we can take advantage of long and short.
Ok so if you're not caught up with our approach to the market right now, I encourage you to read both "We're Buying Bonds" and "Selling Emerging Markets" from this weekend.
Today I want to talk about the non-randomness of markets. I think the Russell2000 Small-cap Index is a great example to walk through. For one, it helps you understand the way we look at markets, but selfishly it's also great because it reiterates a lot of principles that I want to continue to focus on moving forward. Writing helps. Everyone wins.
I tried to outline the levels as best as I could. Let me know if you have any questions!
Quickly today, I just wanted to point out one chart of Emerging Markets that really stands out. Remember this Index is broken down as follows: China 32.40%, South Korea 11.84%, Taiwan 11.71%, India 8.13%, Brazil 6.78%, South Africa 4.25% & Russia 3.84%.
We've had a heck of a run in stocks since the summer, and now I think it's time for a break, at least at the index level. Remember, regardless of overall market conditions there will still always be some stocks going up and some going down. In fact, I think Utilities see some outperformance here and I listed which stocks we want to own. So far they're working.
Anyway, so why the new defensive position? Well, the things we said needed to happen for us to pull back are starting to happen. It's really as simple as that.
We've gotten a few questions about the stock, Spencer's Retail Ltd., since it rallied more than 50% over the last few weeks on news of a large shareholder building a position.
The question now is, can this run continue and how do we define our risk if involved in the stock?