We have an assortment of noteworthy buys from directors and investment firms as well as C-level executives and members of Congress to report today.

📌 TKO Group Holdings $TKO

Director Jonathan Kraft takes the spotlight with a $3.53 million buy. That’s a big-ticket commitment to an entertainment powerhouse – definitely one to watch if you’re keeping tabs on momentum turning in that stock.

📌 Janux Therapeutics $JANX

RA Capital isn’t done with biotech. The investment firm filed a fresh 13D reporting an increase in its $JANX stake from 17.55% to 19.90% in JANX. Large, concentrated bets like this in the Biotech space often hint at major conviction in a pipeline or upcoming catalyst.

📌 Blend Labs $BLND

Director Brian Sheth scooped up $1.96 million in shares, continuing a recent string of insider buys in the software/app space....

The Animal Spirits have turned savage on Wall Street as stocks post their worst day in years. Time to take personal inventory and make a shopping list.

I started running money in 1997, straight out of graduate school. Underfunded and overconfident but with the magnificent good fortune to be working in San Francisco during the original Internet Bubble. It's been a journey. A deeply weird and eventful journey.

My career was almost killed in the crib by LTCM and ripple effects from the Thai Baht, a currency I haven't bothered to think about before or since. I survived the Dot.com bubble and crash, the GFC and a downgrade of US debt. Five years ago this week then-President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency. Six days later California became the first state to issue Stay-at-Home orders and the country was on its way to shutting down almost-but-not-quite everything for 18 months. 

Let me tell you something, "What happens if every public space closes?" was a hard Headwind to price into your spreadsheet. February and March were tough for Consumer Discretionary and pretty much everything else:

There's a certain smell and vibe to...

Today's number is... 5,667

The Bears have made a significant move, pushing the S&P 500 below the key level of 5,667, which is the highs from July 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel is the Momentum Regime (Daily RSI).
  • In a bullish regime, the RSI often exceeds 70 during rallies and finds support around 35-40 during corrections. In a bearish regime, it drops below 30 during sell-offs and doesn't reach overbought levels in counter-trend rallies.

The Takeaway: Over the past few months, I've been sharing my bull market checklist, emphasizing the importance of the 5,667 level in the S&P 500 for the bullish trend. However, after yesterday's trading, the bears have pushed the S&P 500 below this key level. 

Not only was this price level breached, but the S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day moving average, and the momentum shifted to a bearish regime...

Large Cap Growth $IWF has stepped down on the rankings as Large Cap Value $IWD has climbed to the top.

Clearly, equity markets have sold off rather aggressively in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 $SPY has made new lows and is now retesting the final level in the sand at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. If the S&P 500 loses 560, the risk in owning equities over longer time periods significantly rises.

The area that's been hit the hardest has been crypto. The average token is now in its second 60% drawdown of the last 12 months. And the majors are not fairing much better. 

The bottom line, according to Strazza, is the two best crypto vehicles are currently sporting all the classic characteristics of fresh downtrends. 

See how he's playing these downtrends in this conversation with JC Parets. ...

The S&P 500 (United States) has fallen into red territory in our global rankings. This marks a notable development, as under our relative strength ranking America is now in the bottom half of the world in terms of market strength.

The chart below documents the ranking of the United States over the last three months and how it's now in red territory.

The trend favoring the United States has been a persistent one over the last 15 years, and has been marked by continued (and failed) calls of its demise.

But with global stocks nearing a historic breakout, we could be seeing the beginning stages of broadening market leadership outside the United States.

Crypto is getting smoked.

The average token is now in its second >60% drawdown of the last 12 months.

It's been a tough environment to be a crypto investor.

And while Bitcoin's not in quite a pronounced drawdown, it has completed a monster top and is trading in the middle of no man's land.

The trend in crypto is down.

The bottom line is that crypto is currently sporting all the classic characteristics of a fresh downtrend.

If you want to see how we're playing these downtrends, check out this conversation between Steve Strazza and JC Parets by clicking here.

The tape has flipped.

Uptrends aren’t holding, leaders are rolling over, US equities are getting smoked and crypto is leading the way down.

Bitcoin has completed a top and is sliding toward the low $70Ks.

The trend is down and there’s nothing to do from the long side.

For Solana, $120 is the line in the sand.

Below that, it’s game over.

The same is true for Ethereum breaching below $2,100.

The path of least resistance is clearly lower.

I’m taking about two of the most important cryptocurrencies in the world completing massive tops.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

We hope everyone enjoyed this precious metals bull market's first-anniversary last week. 

We certainly did! Cheers to many more years to come. 🥂

Now, what's next?

It's time for Gold's crazy cousin to shine, and here's why.

Today's trade is in a therapeutics name that continues to press into new highs in spite of all the bearishness that the broader stock indexes are suggesting.

And if you look at the implied volatlity in the options, it seems that traders are skeptical that the trend can continue.

Let's find out.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

We're only in the market to make money. Let's not forget that.

We're not journalists who have to tell stories about things that may or may not be happening.

We're not Economists trying to identify the next recession.

We don't care about your stories, and we care even less about your economy. As far as I'm concerned, recessions are a choice for a lot of people.

I try to make sure that I fall in that category.

One way we do that is to weigh all the evidence and decide if this is a bull market or a bear market.

And the reason why this is important is for one simple reason: To decide how we want to be spending our time.

Today is Monday. What should I be doing today? That's the question I want to answer.

In other words, should I be spending my time looking for stocks to buy, or should I be spending my time looking for stocks to sell?

That's really what this is all about. You can see exactly...

Consumer Discretionary DESTROYED on Tariff talk! What to expect as lesser retailers start reporting.

Broadcom $AVGO just reported another blockbuster earnings report, and the market loved it.

It wasn't anywhere near as positive as last quarter's reaction. Q4 2024 was the best earnings reaction ever, leading to the stock joining the 1 trillion dollar market capitalization club.

Nonetheless, this was a very positive development for the Semiconductor industry, which has sucked recently.

We've been talking about these stocks nonstop around here, and it's for a good reason. 

They're not just some of the largest and most important but also some of the most pro-cyclical. If anything is wrong with the economy, the market will send us a signal by decimating these stocks.

Steve Strazza recently wrote, "Semiconductors are the market's most critically important industry group. We may lose the bull market altogether if we lose the semis and NVDA."

Facts only! 💯

We have a lot to unpack today, so let's talk about what else happened 👇

📌 The most significant insider transaction comes from RA Capital Healthcare Fund, which made a massive $25.3 million purchase of Janux Therapeutics $JANX shares. 

Given RA Capital’s expertise in biotech, this is a notable show of confidence in the company’s future.

📌 CFO Jonathan Halkyard of MGM Resorts International $MGM filed a Form 4, revealing the purchase of 10,000 shares.

This is a move worth watching, as CFOs typically only buy when they see strong upside potential.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 7, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management increased its stakes in both PagerDuty $PD and Twist Bioscience $TWST, raising its position in PD from 9.98% to 10.35% and in TWST from 9.39% to 10.70%.

📌 And Rep. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey reported buying $1 million to $5 million...

Today's number is... 81%

Global breadth continues to expand, particularly within Developed Markets, as 81% of the 22 developed markets I track are now above their 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the developed markets index.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the percentage of developed markets above their 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: At present, 81% of developed markets are trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level we have seen this year. This is particularly significant given the ongoing selling pressure in the S&P 500, which has just recorded its third consecutive week of declines.

US investors have benefited from their tendency to favor domestic markets over the past decade. However, this trend could be on the verge of changing, with the relative strength of US markets diminishing while Europe and other developed markets are beginning to take the lead. This might be the moment...

From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works—and why it always will.

For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets—chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the crowd. Meanwhile, the only strategy that actually worked was the simplest one: Follow the trend.

Nobody wanted to believe it. Trend following felt too passive, too reactive. Human nature prefers action, control, and the illusion of certainty. But markets don’t reward ego. They reward discipline.

Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism.

In the 1900s, the most powerful traders—Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore—moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big players.

This wasn’t...

There's never a dull moment in the market. It's always something.

The mixed messages are a feature, not a bug.

That's just how it's always been. So it's our job to weigh all the evidence and make the best decisions we can make, knowing full well that we have incomplete information.

Today I want to talk about 2 theories that may or may not be playing out, but it's something I'm thinking about. 

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?

I think it's because of what they own.

They're not in China, which is making new 3-year highs. 

They're not in...