Today's number is... 2

We are now two months into 2025, and we are closely following the same path of the average post election cycle. What's next?

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the average return in post election years since 1950 for the S&P 500.
• The red line represents the S&P 500 in 2025.

The Takeaway: In the first two months of the year, the S&P 500 has followed its typical pattern for the post-election cycle.

Up in January.

Down in February.

If stocks continue to follow this seasonal trend, we may have seen the bottom for the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see stocks rip higher into the end of the year, given that the average post election cycle is now transitioning into a tailwind for stocks.

However, if we start to see weakness during what is typically a strong seasonal period for stocks, that would pique my interest much more. For now, stocks are simply following their usual seasonal tendencies. 

What are your...

It's Game Time. By Tuesday morning's opening bell earnings from Target, Best Buy and ON will have set the stage for the coming flood of retail earnings... if you know what to look for. How to get ahead of the wave. 

It's time to get serious about retail earnings. Walmart has doubled the performance of the Magnificent 7 over the last 12 months. Right here in this very space I suggested buying the dip when the stock sold-off on weak guidance. And Investors who did chalked up gains of about 3%.

I love the consumer, Walmart the stock and making money but not even I can get super fired up over grinding out 3% trades on the largest employer on earth that isn't the Chinese Army. The entire planet follows Walmart and Amazon. If you don't own the stocks you should. And, once you buy it's best to forget about them entirely. 

If you want to make money trading consumer stocks you need to get into the grit and draw conclusions where the rest of the world doesn't. It requires knowing not just the financials but the stories behind some of the three-legged dogs, fallen angels and more obscure companies just popping up on Wall Street radars. ...

Bonds are telling the story of this market, and if you’re not listening you’re already behind! 

Growth, inflation, liquidity – it’s all written in the bond market’s moves, making bonds the most critical tool for any trader. 

Period. 

The 2 year US Treasury yield exploded higher the moment the Fed started cutting rates – a massive tell that expectations shifted on a dime, as the chart clearly shows. 

Now that same yield has flipped direction and is plunging lower. You know what that means: liquidity could start flooding the system once again.

When liquidity increases, money doesn’t sit still – it moves fast. 

We’re watching capital rip through the market, rotating in to international stocks like it’s got something to prove. 

The Fed might think they’re steering the ship with their rate tweaks, but the bond market says otherwise. 

It’s the bond market that leads the way – always has, always will.

So here’s the million dollar question: will we...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

The bull market rages on, despite any ugly rumors you might here that it's over.

They love pretending that the bull market is done, because scaring you is good for business.

Telling you the world has never been a better place is just not good for the noisemaking community. 

It's good for investors though! That's us...

Anyway, historic back-to-back years for the stock market now continues to expand broadly all over the world.

Here is the "Earth Index" closing the month once again at a new all-time high.

Notice how the United States barely represents half of this Index.

In some of the other Global Indexes, the U.S. carries a much higher weighting, over 80% in some cases.

50% of the Index is about right in my opinion. 

You've got a lot of UK and Europe in this one, so it should be no surprise that the London FTSE 100 and the broader London FTSE 350 both closed the month at new all-time highs again yesterday.

Here is the broadest measure of European Equities, which include all the small-caps, mid-caps and large-caps, also hitting new all-time highs:

But keep in mind that the strength we're...

A lot is happening right now.

The bears are destroying Orange Juice futures, while Coffee futures are at an all-time high. Soft commodities are super bifurcated at the moment.

The entire agricultural commodity complex is shaping up quite nicely. Corn and Soybean futures look poised to lead the way higher.

We're also seeing China's economy roar back to life. Steve's Breakout Multiplier system has been crushing it...

The U.S. equity market is currently moving through one of its weakest seasonal periods of the year.

These are always good times to assess the health of the market and see what’s happening beneath the surface. 

One particular way to do this is by evaluating momentum.

In strong uptrends, stocks typically don't hit oversold conditions or dip below an RSI of 30. Instead, they tend to stay above the 40-50 range and frequently push into overbought territory above 70.

In downtrends, stocks usually don't reach overbought levels. Instead, they tend to oscillate no higher than the 50-60 range and often fall into oversold conditions below 30.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the percentage of...

Global equities are on a tear.

From China to Europe to Latin America, they're outperforming the U.S. so far this year.

However, while they look strong, many key indexes are approaching critical inflection points.

These three charts illustrate exactly where things stand and highlight the potential for what might come next.

If the global growth narrative is going to play out, we need to see these international indexes break higher.

Even more importantly, EEM needs to follow suit.

Under that scenario, I want to be buying a lot of these...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to ARKK position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

It is always good to play a little devil’s advocate.

One of the things JC has got me accustomed to doing over the years is thinking like a bear… even when I’m not bearish.

“Make your best bear case,” he’d say. 

“What are the worst charts right now?”

It’s something we do just as a thought exercise. Even in the best of bull markets, this is a valuable technique.

Anyway, I thought of it today because I’m finding it uncomfortably easy to paint a negative outlook on stocks lately. 

And I’m not alone. Market sentiment is in the dumps as the bearish evidence keeps piling in.

So, I went to the analyst team and asked them for their most bearish charts this morning.

Let’s look at some and talk about what they mean.

First up, this one is from the Fons:

He talked about this failed break in the discretionary vs staples ratio in his note the other day.

The most significant insight from today’s list is the sheer number of CEOs buying their own stock.

📌 Akamai Technologies $AKAM: CEO Frank Thomson Leighton purchased $3 million worth of stock.

📌 Skyworks Solutions $SWKS: CEO and President Liam Griffin bought 10,000 shares.

📌 Arcus Biosciences $RCUS: CEO Terry J. Rosen stepped in with $402,000.

📌 Alliance Entertainment $AENT: The CEO and the Executive Chairman purchased $269,000.

When these top executives, who know the business better than anyone, start putting their own money on the line, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 27, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

The CFOs of Selective Insurance Group $SIGI and Grocery Outlet Holding Corp $GO didn’t stay on the sidelines—they stepped up and put their...

Thursday was a big day for S&P 500 earnings reactions.

We heard from the market darling, NVIDIA $NVDA. They reported a double beat but were beaten down as a result.

eBay $EBAY was another stock that beat expectations but wasn't rewarded.

On the other hand, entertainment behemoths Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount Global missed the market's expectations, but the market rewarded them for it.

There was something for the bulls and the bears to chew on.

We have a lot to unpack today, so let's talk about what else happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Invitation Homes $INVH had the best reaction score on Thursday, and Teleflex $TFX had the worst.  

The stock with the largest market capitalization was NVIDIA $NVDA, and the smallest was APA Corp. $APA.

The market's reaction to NVDA's double beat was quite nasty. It was a big win for the bears.

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about the most significant earnings reactions 👇

...

Today's number is... 20%

The percentage of stocks down 20% or more are expanding across all S&P market caps.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks (Large Cap) that have declined by 20% or more.
• The red line indicates the percentage of S&P 400 stocks (Mid Cap) that have fallen by 20% or more.
• The gray line shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks (Small Cap) that have experienced a decline of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: A decline of 20% or more is typically considered the threshold for defining a "bear market" While this method isn't perfect, it's a nice round number that often brings the price of the stock down to levels that you never thought you would see again.

When we look beneath the surface using a 20% or more decline as our criteria, we can see that these breadth readings are expanding across all market caps. 

More than half of the S&P 600...

What immediately stands out is how the precious metal miner ETFs have migrated to the top of the table. This points to a pronounced increase in relative strength as equity markets have sold off.

You can see how all these ETFs have transitioned to a darker green in recent weeks.

It's no surprise to see these ETFs outperform the market in periods where gold is also outperforming.

Tracking the ratio of Gold relative to stocks, this ratio tends to exhibit strong upward spikes, followed by prolonged periods of downward of sideways action. Right now, this ratio is experiencing yet another spike as stocks sell off.

Whether or not this trend favoring precious metal stocks is sustainable is yet to be seen, as of yet. But in either case, to top the ETF Power Rankings is no small accomplishment; there is serious relative strength here.

As US stocks have sold off in recent sessions, China growth has migrated to the top of the rankings.

Notably, this group found itself well into the red during the most correction. But this rotation into international stocks is having implications across many key intermarket trends.

The China Technology ETF $CQQQ is on the cusp of completing this massive multi-year base breakout. If a breakout can manifest here, it would be tremendously bullish for this theme.

US sectors have experienced some notable weakness this week as many groups fail to hold their recent breakouts.

While this does a paint a picture that the market environment is transitioning to a choppier period, it is important to view this within the context of the longer-term trends.

Let's take Consumer Discretionary $XLY as an example.

The ETF has just broken to new lows, and the short-term trend has shifted lower.

But when we zoom out, the ETF is actually sitting on top of a significant breakout level. Typically, retests such as these are often met with strong demand.

It's unsurprising to see this weakness early in the year considering the last two years of significant market gains. The third year of bull markets can be more choppy than the preceding two, but longer-term the trends are constructive.

Perhaps the most surprising element of this recent weakness is crypto. While stocks have sold off modestly, crypto is enduring quite a beating. Our Senior Crypto Analyst, Louis Sykes, will be joining Director of Research, Steve Strazza, in an emergency crypto update at midday today.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

Global equities are on a tear.

From China to Europe to Latin America, they're outperforming the U.S. so far this year.

However, while they look strong, many key indexes are approaching critical inflection points.

These three charts illustrate exactly where things stand and highlight the potential for what might come next.

If the global growth narrative is going to play out, we need to see these international indexes break higher.

Even more importantly, EEM needs to follow suit.

Under that scenario, I want to be buying a lot of these...