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Introducing America’s Only Pure-Play Public Tower Company 📊🗼

March 17, 2025

Crown Castle $CCI just had its best earnings reaction since Q2 2003. It was epic.

What happened?

The company announced the sale of its fiber optics segment for $8.5B, making Crown Castle the only public pure-play U.S. tower company.

The market loves the simplicity.

This sale will also make the operations more efficient and reduce costs. 

With these extra funds, the company plans to implement a $3B share repurchase program. 

Now, let's talk about what else happened.

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500 👇 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Crown Castle $CCI had the best reaction score, and Ulta Beauty $ULTA was a close 2nd place.

CCI reported $1.65B in revenues versus its $1.64B estimate and a loss of $10.97 per share versus the $0.44 estimate. This massive discrepancy in EPS was caused by the changes taking place at the company and shouldn't happen again.

ULTA reported $3.49B in revenues versus its $3.47B estimate and a gain of $7.13 per share versus the $8.46 estimate.

Now, let's dig into these reports and talk about their technical...

Hot Corner Insider

Steve Cohen's Point72 Reports a 5% VNET Stake

March 17, 2025

The Hedge Fund King is making moves.

📌The biggest insider transaction today comes from Steve Cohen’s Point72, which filed a 13G for a 5% stake in VNET Group $VNET. 

As one of the most sophisticated hedge funds, known for high-conviction bets, their entry signals strong institutional confidence in the stock.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 14, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌In another Form 4, Victoria’s Secret $VSCO saw a $2.18 million insider buy from BBRC International PTE LTD, an investment firm with a history of strategic retail plays.

📌Ares Management $ARES Director Bhutani Ashish put down $1.41 million on his company.

📌Last but not least, Southwest Airlines $LUV had multiple directors stepping in for open-market purchases.

The Daily Number

Is global rotation in progress?📈

March 17, 2025

Today's number is... 16

The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 is on the verge of breaking out of a 16-year downtrend.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line shows the relative ratio of World Ex-US versus the S&P 500 Index.

The Takeaway: The US has been outperforming the rest of the world for a long time. However, since the beginning of the year, the ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 has been ripping higher and is now on the verge of breaking a 16-year downtrend.

Let me break down the favorable changes I have seen happen to this ratio over the past 3 months: 

  • The ratio is now above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
  • The slope of the 50-day moving average is trending upward.
  • The RSI is above 80, the highest RSI reading this ratio has ever reached.

This is not enough evidence to confirm a trend change. So, for me to confirm that the trend has shifted in favor of the World Ex-US, I need to see the following:...

All Star Charts Premium

Breadth Expansion Persists

March 16, 2025

Let me bottom line it for you.

During bull markets you regularly see the laggards catch up to the leaders. That sort of rotation is perfectly consistent with bull markets throughout history.

During bear markets, it's often the remaining leaders that ultimately catch down to the original losers leading the market lower.

And that's the big question right now. Is the fact that the U.S. is lagging lately just the beginning of more selling coming for stocks?

Or does the lagging U.S. catch up to the leaders all over the world.

Look at the expansion in participation across continents:

 

I think about it like this.

There have been and continue to be opportunities in stocks with exposure to these types of markets.

Remember that they are very different to the mega-cap Tech-heavy U.S. indexes. Foreign markets generally have a lot more exposure to Industrials, Financials and Natural Resources than American indexes.

As you can see, we continue to focus on the things that are working, and rotation is working. It often does during bull markets.

While all this is happening, we've already started to see relative strength from...

The Strazza Letter

The Bears Are Winning

March 16, 2025

I’ve made plenty of mentions to our Bear Market Checklist in recent weeks. 

It’s something we’re always keeping track of, but matters more in some times, and less in others. 

When we’re in rally mode, it barely crosses my mind. But when volatility strikes, and markets are selling off, it’s the most valuable thing I have. 

Let’s break down exactly what it is and how we use it to guide our analysis at All Star Charts. 

As we track the progress of a bull market, we have major indexes and assets that we want to see achieve certain milestones. This is also true for risk appetite ratios, credit spreads, and breadth indicators. 

So, we simply make a list of these charts and key levels along the way. 

When corrective waves occur, we look for these levels - which in many cases, represent a big line in the sand for these trends, to remain intact.  

We keep tabs of what holds and what doesn’t, and we weigh the evidence accordingly. 

When too many of these zones are violated, it can spell the end of the bull...

All Star Charts Premium

The Libs Hate Elon and Tesla

March 16, 2025

I'm constantly on the lookout for opportunities where market participants are most vulnerable.

If our data suggests that a market is too extended in one direction, I want to find ways to profit from an unwind in that positioning.

You saw it recently with how well we've done in our China trades, where 8 out of 8 trades since the election have all at least doubled in value. Think about how much money we've made in these stocks, despite any selling pressure you've seen in the United States recently.

It's not about the fundamentals. It's the positioning. No one owned Chinese stocks, and so the squeeze was on!

Last summer when all the libs were upset with Elon becoming besties with President Trump, we saw a tremendous opportunity to fade their negativity.

See: ...

All Star Charts Premium

Semiconductors Rally on News of Nasdaq Correction

March 15, 2025

Semiconductors rallied this week with Nvidia ripping almost 8%.

This all comes as journalists on basic cable tell your parents that the Nasdaq is in a correction.

You see how this works?

Here's Nvidia finding support at the same key extension levels where the buyers stepped up in the Fall:

 

As I've said a whole bunch of times, if the Semiconductor Index completes this massive top relative to the S&P500, then chances are that the bull market is cancelled.

With Semi's rallying this week, despite the selling pressure in other areas of the market, that alpha put the Semiconductor Index back above all that support, invalidating any bearish implications that may have occurred earlier in March:

 

If Semi's do actually break, then I believe there is a bigger structural problem in the market, particularly in U.S. equities.

Global equities continue to act well, pointing more towards a rotation, rather than a full blown credit event....

Alfonso’s Daily Note

China Takes the Lead

March 14, 2025

Whether you look at Europe breaking out, Gold pushing toward $3,000, or China ripping higher, some of the best opportunities are now found outside the U.S.

This has been the case so far this year.

The Large-Cap China ETF $FXI just hit 18-month highs relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, signaling a potential shift in market leadership.  

 

A trend reversal seems to be in play in favor of Chinese equities.

No one’s talking about it. Everyone’s ignoring these stocks.

The rules have changed. 

What worked in previous years isn’t necessarily going to cut it today.

In a market like this, uncorrelated trades aren’t just a hedge—they’re a must for diversification and risk management as leadership shifts across regions and sectors.

Steve and Jason went live yesterday, breaking down their strategies and how to navigate environments like this....

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

(Commodities Weekly) These Lines Dance Together 🕺📈

March 14, 2025

Copper futures have so many tailwinds working for it right now. We think it's ready to breakout to new all-time highs.

We've talked about the strong positive correlation it has with Chinese stocks. This remains the case. 

In addition, base and industrial metals have been ripping. Just look at the setup in Aluminum futures

We think it would make sense for Dr. Copper to lead its peers higher. This has already been playing out in precious metals.

The shiny yellow rock has been leading its peers higher, and now Silver futures are a stone's throw away from multi-decade highs. 

Gold futures hit 3,000 for the first time to make things even sweeter. Surpassing...

All Star Charts Premium

International Hall of Famers (03-14-2025)

March 14, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
Macke's Retail Roundup

Video: The Week From Hell

March 14, 2025

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

It's been a helluva week. Even with Friday's bounce, XLY is still by far the worst-performing sector this year. 

Crashes are easy. I’ll tell you what to do if stocks fall 20% in one day: Buy something. 

Bear markets are a different vibe. If a crash is a blitzkrieg, bear markets are a seige. Every day like the last. Long, negative, intermittent spells of misery. Since December 17th the Consumer Discretionary SPDR is down 18%. No day much stands out as particularly miserable. So far, 2025 has been about two weeks of hope, followed by stocks falling 4 out of 5 days, usually about 1%.

The XLY has now given back all of its gains since last October and is breaking down much worse than that below the surface. First they came for the darlings like Elf and Abercrombie and no one said anything because those were momentum plays.

But the market isn’t just coming for losers on the day they disappoint. Stocks like ANF sell off seemingly every day. It’s been folded in half since January. The stock is “cheap” and...

All Star Charts Premium

Germany & China Hit New Highs

March 14, 2025

Contrary to popular belief, we're not just Americans. We're earthlings.

I think that gets forgotten, especially after the United States stock market outperformed practically everything else for so long.

You have a combination of home country bias and you have the recency bias layered on top of that.

So when U.S. Technology is an underperformer, as it has been since last summer, many investors with too much exposure in those areas are blinded by their losing, to see all the winning that's going on around them.

China, for example, just closed the week out at new 4-month highs. The CSI 300 is basically the S&P500 of China, and just closed at the highest levels since early November.

 

Meanwhile, you're seeing the German DAX this morning working on the highest weekly close in the country's history.

Whether it does or doesn't, the relative strength in Germany has been off the charts, despite any selling pressure you've seen in the U.S.

Keep in mind that outside of the American Indexes (S&P500, Dow & Nasdaq), I would put Germany right at the top of the most important markets list.

This is a very big deal, especially when...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/14/25

March 14, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLP position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Double Beats, Opposite Reactions: A Tale of Two Stocks 📊☯️

March 14, 2025

Adobe $ADBE just reported a double beat and got destroyed for it. The reaction was nasty!

Shares slid 13.85% during Thursday's market session and closed near the low.

The company reported revenues of $5.71B versus the estimated $5.66B and reported earnings per share of $5.08 versus the estimated $4.97.

Their AI-related business contributed $125M in ARR, and they expect that number to double this year.

The growth is off the charts, but the market has already priced it into the stock. 

The management team thinks the stock is cheap. They've repurchased $11.4B in stock over the last 12 months, equivalent to 7% of the market capitalization. They're authorized to repurchase an additional $14.4B.

ADBE is a share cannibal as it's aggressively eating its shares. This is a sweet tailwind for long-term investors.

Next week, the company is hosting the Adobe Summit 2025 in Las Vegas. It will be interesting to see if this successfully pumps the stock or worsens things.

Stay tuned...

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500 👇 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Dollar...

Hot Corner Insider

Top Decision-Makers Continue To Back Their Businesses

March 14, 2025

More top decision-makers are buying their own companies’ stock.

📌 Today's most significant insider move comes from LendingTree $TREE Chief Operating Officer Peyree Scott, who purchased $1.3 million worth of shares. 

As COO, Scott has direct oversight of the company’s operations and execution. His buy suggests confidence in LendingTree’s business model and future growth. 

When a top operator puts their own money on the line, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 13, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 In energy, Marathon Petroleum $MPC Chief Commercial Officer backed his company with a $269,000 buy. 

As CCO, his focus is on revenue generation and market expansion. His purchase could signal optimism in the oil & gas sector.

📌 Meanwhile...

The Daily Number

The market is entering a correction phase 📉

March 13, 2025

Today's number is... 10%

The S&P 500 has now experienced a 10% correction.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The gray bars in the second panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 5% correction.
  • The yellow bars in the third panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 10% correction.
  • The red bars in the fourth panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 20% correction.

The Takeaway: “Not every crack becomes a gorge; not every gorge becomes a chasm. However, every chasm starts from a crack.” - Willie Delwiche

It was only last week I wrote a daily number note that the S&P 500 had a...