My apologies if this one was a bit of a layup, but that was the point. You were all buyers and so are we. Since we're all in agreement let’s dive right in and talk about why we’re bullish on this chart but more importantly, why it matters.
If you're reading this it's probably because you've read our Table of the Week where we identified roughly 100 of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500. After digging into the charts of all these stocks, we came up with a handful of setups that we believe are currently offering the best reward/risk. Here they are, in no particular order.
We want to be buying stocks that are in the strongest uptrends. One way we identify them is by looking at momentum which we use the 14-day RSI for. The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, or fall to RSI levels below 30. In fact, the strongest uptrends often stay above the 40-50 level and constantly print overbought readings above 70.
The S&P 500 registered an extreme oversold reading below 20 during the violent correction that began in late February. Here's a look.
Today we wrote a post updating our market view, which is that we expect further chop but are looking to put cash to work slowly on the long side. In that post we outlined what we'd need to see to get aggressively long, so please check it out.
This post is going to outline several stocks that are presenting attractive reward/risk scenarios at current levels, so if you need long exposure this is where we want to be.
In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.
First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.
Are you noticing the relative strength in Emerging Markets? That is NOT something we would expect to see if the world was actually coming to an end.
I can't stress this enough, stay away from the glorified gossip columns. They know less than nothing. You know who knows? The market. So that's where we'll get our data.
Think about it like this, there are more people and firms with more money and better intelligence than any of these governments, communist or otherwise. Are you actually going to trust the propaganda being put out in the "news"?
Or do you trust the people putting actual money behind the information they're spending a fortune to get? When we want to know what's really going on, we turn to the markets. The rest is pure junk.
For now, we're in an environment where we want to be buying stocks. We want to be incredibly disciplined with our risk levels, probably more than usual, but buying stocks nonetheless.
We're buying a few Chinese Internet Stocks. If the world isn't ending after all, this could be an interesting place to look for huge winners. I'm already seeing relative strength there.
Today JC discussed our March playbook for Members and outlined some areas we'd be looking for a bounce with well-defined risk and others that we want to be completely avoiding.
I wanted to share a few breadth measures to provide context around the recent decline and see if they offer any clues around what's next.