Home Depot is getting the headlines but there are better trades below the surface

Home Depot is who I wrote about them being last night; a great American company more or less chained at the neck to the US housing market. This morning HD shares are higher by a couple percent after the company reported positive comps for the first time in 2 years and slightly better than expected guidance. 

Listening to the call as I type. The company is taking share, where possible and continues to invest in the business. HD can make you money if you get long during periods of housing recovery but, well, we're not there yet. 

Senior Exec VP Ann-Marie Campbell and CEO Ted Decker on the HD Analyst call just now: 

• "We continue to see softer engagement in larger discretionary projects"
• "The higher interest rate environment continues to pressure larger remodeling projects"
• "Our customer is very healthy... as they stay in their houses longer they will take on larger remodeling projects as opposed to moving [but not yet]"

So, HD...

The most significant insider activity on today’s list comes from Vimeo $VMEO, where the CEO, the CFO, the Chief Product & Technology Officer, and a Director stepped in with a collective $353,000 buy.

It's rare to see four executives step in at the same time, but when it happens in clusters, it signals a strong bet from the top leadership.

Then the President & CEO of Sonoco Products $SON made a bold move, purchasing $929,500 worth of stock. When the CEO makes a buy worth nearly $1 million, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 24, 2025:

Over in biotech, Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund took an 18.30% stake in Aardvark Therapeutics $AARD.

And in software, the CEO of Mitek Systems $MITK just purchased $506,000 in stock.

Uncle Warren is red hot right now. 🥵

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A / $BRK.B closed at a new all-time high on Monday after it smashed the market's expectations on Saturday.

The company reported operating earnings of $47.4B in 2024, a remarkable increase from $37.35B in the prior year.

In addition, insurance underwriting earnings rose to $9.02B in 2024, nearly double the $5.43B in 2023.

BRK has also significantly benefited from elevated interest rates, as it owns over $300B in U.S. government debt.

Here's the bottom line: the Oracle of Omaha is firing on all cylinders and riding this bull market higher.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A / $BRK.B had the best reaction score on Monday, and Domino's Pizza $DPZ had the worst.  

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about these earnings reactions 👇

Berkshire Hathaway reported a double beat and rallied over 4%. Its reaction score was 4.81...

Today's number is... 55%

Only 55% of S&P 500 stocks are in strong uptrends.  

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, the 50-day and 200-day averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day average positioned above the 200-day average. 

Looking beneath the surface, only 55% of S&P 500 stocks show strong upward trends. The trend of this breadth indicator has been declining throughout this year and has now fallen back to levels seen at the beginning of 2024. This suggests that there is an underlying weakness in the market, which could pose further downside price action at an index level if the bulls do not address this issue.

Small cracks can also be seen at the index level. Although the S&P 500'...

Cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks are reacting negatively to some of the most positive news they’ve had in years.

It all just speaks to the recent mood shift for Bitcoin and friends. Since the election rally, it hasn’t gone well.

And just think of the news cycle. The first crypto president. A strategic BTC reserve. A non-predatory SEC. Crypto fund approvals. 

The headlines couldn’t be more bullish.

Yet, the average altcoin has suffered a 60% drawdown, and there are literally no cryptos holding up outside of Bitcoin.

I think the next leg for Bitcoin will be lower, as it gets in line with the rest of its asset class. 

In this post, I’ll explain why and what I’m doing about it.

When I think of Bitcoin, I also think of Solana, Ethereum, Coinbase, and Microstrategy… the whole group should work together. It always has. When...

This morning, I started thinking about what still makes this a crypto bull market.

And the answer really comes down to what you’re weighing on the scale.

On one hand, the average drawdown in altcoins sits around 60% from their highs.

Charts like Ethereum and Solana look vulnerable.

Crypto stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy are struggling.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is the last one standing

That’s the bulls’ only argument at this point.

Although BTC remains above a key area of underlying demand, price action has been messy—it looks like one big consolidation.

This can either be a massive distribution and a major top or just a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend.

For me, it all comes down to the VWAP from the US Election and the lower bounds of this range....

We've been discussing the odds favoring shiny rocks outperforming stocks for the foreseeable future. 

It's what happens in every precious metals bull market.

Another classic in these cycles is for the mining stocks to outperform gold. We think this is about to happen. 

In addition, we expect the entire precious metals complex to move explosively. We haven't seen this yet, but we're anticipating it.

The setup in palladium futures looks as juicy as anything in the market.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

The consumer mood darkens ahead of Retail Earnings. Time to make a shopping list.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XME position to April options.
3. Closed SMH at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider activity on today’s list comes from Perceptive Advisors LLC, which just filed a Form 4 revealing a $20 million buy in Solid Biosciences $SLDB.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 21, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Bristol-Myers Squibb $BMY CEO Chris Boerner stepped up to purchase $110,000 worth of stock.

It’s always important to watch CEO buys, as a chief executive knows their company better than anyone.

And, finally, over in Washington, Rep. Rick Allen of Georgia reported a $15.000 to $50,000 purchase of AutoZone $AZO.

Senator Ashley Moody of Florida made even bigger moves, disclosing purchases of:

• $50,000 to $100,000 in Micron Technology $MU;

• $100,000 to $250,000 in Applied Materials $AMAT; and 

• ...

Today's number is... 1

Last week, the bears demonstrated that they are still active, with one-month lows for the S&P 500, 400, and 600 started to expand.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the second panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making one-month lows.
• The red line in the third panel shows the percentage of S&P 400 stocks making one-month lows.
• The gray line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks making one-month lows.

The Takeaway: On Friday, all major indices fell by over 1.5%. This was a show of force from the bears. With this widespread weakness, we observed one-month new lows rising across all market capitalizations.

While the overall evidence still suggests a bullish trend, Friday marked a possible turning point...

More country ETFs are beginning to climb up the ETF Power Rankings. Beginning 2025, global stocks have actually outperformed the United States.

While this has been a secular downtrend in global relative to the United States, we are entering into a unique market environment of higher interest rates and widening market breadth among differing sectors. While these trends take a long time to reverse, we could be seeing the early stages of a structural reversal in this dynamic.

Just take a look at the ratio of global stocks breaking higher relative to the United States over the last few months.

Do you think this is the beginning of something more serious or will the US begin outperforming once again?

Reach out if you have any thoughts, we'd love to hear them!

Look, I get it—this topic comes up again and again, and it can be a bit of a head scratcher.

I keep saying it: inflation is sticky, and the dollar is rolling over.

Yet people ask, "How does that work with a 75% rolling correlation between the dollar and yields recently?"

And that’s a valid question.

Check out this chart—it’s a visual reminder that correlations aren’t set in stone. There are times when the numbers move in harmony and other moments when the link just falls apart.
 

Markets evolve, and so do these relationships.

Here’s the honest truth: correlations are fickle by nature. They can look tight one minute and then unravel the next.

Relying on a strong historical link is like betting on a coin toss coming up heads every time—it’s risky and can easily lead you astray.

Here's our latest Freshly Squeezed table: 

As you can see, Gorilla Technology $GRRR, Super Micro Computer $SMCI, and Innodata $INOD are at the top of the scan. They've been ripping!

Now, let's talk about today's setup.

The Financial sector has been home to some of the best uptrends in recent years. 📈

Names like Interactive Brokers (a fan favorite around here) have rallied over 500% since the 2020 trough.

It has been a historic bull run. 

One of the stocks that haven't participated in this cycle is the $2.6B company from Chicago, GCM Grosvenor $GCMG.

It was established in 1971 but went public for the first time via SPAC in late 2020.

The company manages nearly $80B in assets across various alternative investment strategies, including private equity, credit, real estate, and more.

In bull markets, this company prints money. 

As you can see, GCM Grosvenor has resolved a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus the broader market. 

This means the stock should outperform its peers for...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

We’re halfway through Q1, and February is historically a weak month for stocks.

But here’s the key—seasonal weakness doesn’t usually kick in until the second half of the month. And that’s exactly where we are now.

In other words, if stocks struggle these next few weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise based on historical standards. 

Maybe the market hit a rough patch, or maybe it shrugs off this seasonal trend altogether.

Either way, here’s my focus.

I’ll be watching for the groups that hold up best—the ones that stay strong even as the market chops around.

Because when the broader market wobbles, but certain areas show resilience, that’s the real relative strength signal. And that is where some of the best trading opportunities arise.

I’m ready for it.

Alfonso